Nitpicking the Sydney Swans

Nitpicking the Sydney Swans

GuyWhoLikesSport

At the outset let me just say one thing: Sydney is the best team.

They had won ten in a row before they finally lost to Fremantle, and even in the loss to Fremantle they won the expected score.

This is the team to beat.

But just as I can nitpick the Quentin Tarantino’s acting scenes in Pulp Fiction, or the fact that Apollonia was 16 when she was in The Godfather, I can nitpick Sydney.

Sydney have lost two games this season, one to Richmond in round three and obviously to Fremantle in round 16.

In both games, Richmond and Fremantle controlled the ball. Richmond took 110 marks and Fremantle took 105. The only other game where a side took over 100 marks in the game was Sydney’s win over the Bulldogs, a game they won by 14 points – their narrowest win for the season.

Sydney play gash or be gashed football.

It’s risk versus reward. Their defensive pressure is frenetic and they attack games. They force the fourth most turnovers in the AFL and are the heaviest scoring team off turnover. However, they also turn the ball over at the third highest rate. They play high pressure, high-risk, hard running, frenetic football. It’s what makes them so exciting to watch.

If you play that high pressure, hyper frenetic game back at them, Sydney will beat you at it. They are better at it than you are, I guarantee. But like Don Draper told us, if you don’t like what’s being said, change the conversation.

Richmond and Fremantle both effectively changed the conversation.

They didn’t play Sydney’s frenetic, high-pressure game and instead took advantage of Sydney’s propensity to cough the ball up. However, instead of getting a turnover and going back at them with speed, they controlled the ball and worked it from side to side, waiting for Sydney’s aggressive defence to overcommit as they inevitably did. From there it was a matter of attacking the corridor at timely moments and hitting leading forwards in a defence that is already stretched.

The key is not to just chip the ball around for the sake of it. You need to be stretching the field when you do turn the ball over instead of chipping it around with no purpose. If you chip it around, Sydney’s pressure will eventually lead to the ball getting chopped off and Sydney ramming it down your throat and kicking a goal with their explosive running and aggressive kicking. No, you need to score from the back half.

It’s no surprise, then, that Richmond and Fremantle especially were able to do that. Fremantle scored 62 points from the back half and Richmond scored 42, two of the three highest scorers from the defensive half against Sydney.

It’s also no surprise therefore, that both teams punished Sydney off turnovers. Fremantle scored 71 points off Sydney turnovers and Richmond 54, again two of the three highest scorers off turnover against Sydney this season. The Swans have generally been good at defending scores off turnover, sitting fifth for opposition scores off turnover on the season, giving up just 42 points per game off turnover.

It’s about patience, then effective aggression.

The best example of this in the Fremantle game was early in the third quarter. Fremantle worked the ball around the centre line and Sydney’s defence continued to stretch as a reaction to the constant switching. Then Brandon Walker saw the space and hit Hayden Young right in the middle of the park. Young exploded forward and hit Jye Amiss inside 50 directly in front of goal. He scored to make it 77-51 Fremantle.

You have to play Sydney like you’re fighting an aggressive boxer. You need to bide your time, wait, be patient, and then be withering and explosive when you see that they have overcommitted.

Play football like Gervonta Davis fights.

In the last quarter when Fremantle was forced to abandon that style, playing up the line and allowing Sydney’s well organised defence to set up and predict how the ball was coming in, Sydney got themselves back into the game. They were able to get the ball to ground and could get quick on Fremantle. The Dockers had no answers and hung on by the skin of their teeth.

Regardless, that game style might be a way for teams to beat Sydney.

Make no mistake though, that’s a high wire act. It requires precise, exact kicking and some luck.

So, who of the teams that I suggested could win the premiership in an earlier column this week, can play that style of football?

Brisbane is the best candidate, but Hawthorn (Sydney beat Hawthorn by 76 points earlier this year, but this is a different Hawthorn outfit) and Fremantle can also do it.

They are three of the six teams averaging over 100 marks per game over their last five matches and are all in the top five at scoring from the defensive half. Brisbane and Fremantle are also the third and fourth best teams over that period at scoring off turnover, while Hawthorn have been less good at that facet of the game sitting twelfth.

I wouldn’t pick any of them in a final. Even with Richmond and Fremantle playing Sydney perfectly, the Swans still won the expected score against Fremantle and lost the expected score against Richmond by a point. They will be hard to beat.

What it does mean is that all three of those teams have the ability to play Sydney the only way that they have been beaten thus far this season. Brisbane, Hawthorn and Fremantle have all shown the ability to get the ball in defence, work the ball up the field methodically but not overly aggressively, to stretch Sydney and force them to overcommit, then to pounce when an opening is there.

If you’re going to pick someone to beat them, and I don’t suggest that you do, pick one of those three.

As a final aside, you know who isn’t on the list? Carlton.

The Blues are playing a similar, but less precise version of the game Sydney is playing over the last five games with a heavy front-half focus, turnovers high up the field, and an emphasis on contested ball. They will want to fight fire with fire if they meet the Swans in a final. The difference is, I think Sydney’s flame burns a bit brighter.

Over the last five games – Sydney’s weakest patch of the year and Carlton’s strongest – the Swans are number 1 in contested ball, Carlton is fifth. The Swans are also number one in scores from the forward half and Carlton are third. The place where the Blues are beating Sydney over the last five games are scores off turnover, but they are one and two.

Leigh Matthews famously told his charges ahead of a game against a dominant Essendon outfit in 2001 “if it bleeds, we can kill it”. Sydney bleed and they can be killed.

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