It’s the end of the Dees as we know it.

It’s the end of the Dees as we know it.

GuyWhoLikesSport

In sport, the end comes fast.

Look at Leon Edwards.

He won welterweight gold with one of the most iconic knockouts in history against the Kamaru Usman.

He defended his belt twice and looked untouchable.

Then the UFC booked him against Belal Muhammad in Manchester, with the main event set to start 3am local time.

Leon lost listlessly.

I chalked it up to Edwards being tired and figured heā€™d be back.

In his next fight he lost badly again.

In the blink of an eye, it was over for Leon Edwards.

The same is true for Melbourne.

There is no team I was more wrong about than Melbourne this offseason.

I figured that their infrastructure ā€“a dominant contest midfield and an excellent defence – would be good enough to overcome a terrible forward line.

I thought, therefore, last year was the exception rather than the rule.

It turns out their infrastructure isnā€™t fit for modern times and their forward line is as bad as ever, leaving them floundering.

The first strength-cum-weakness is their clearance and contested ball game.

In their top-4 run, Melbourne was annually first in contested ball and never worse than sixth in clearances.

This year theyā€™re 18th and 14th,respectively.

Even with Petracca back next to Oliver, Gawn and Viney, they havenā€™t kept up with the explosive midfields – only Richmond have been scored against more heavily from stoppage.

Melbourne has also abandoned Trent Rivers in midfield, where he was good last season. From round 15 last year, Rivers attended at least half of the centre bounces in all but one game and averaged over 5 clearances per game.

This year, Goodwin has been the opposite of Andy from Toy Story and only wants to play with the old toys, with Rivers attending 8.3% of centre bounces.

Harvey Langford has been there a bit, but Goodwin is leaning on his old reliables and it isnā€™t working.

Theyā€™re slow and uninspired.

Speaking of, now for Melbourneā€™s ball movement!

Goodwin wants to be a short-kicking, ball control team. He always has. Nothing wrong with that.

The problem is that Melbourne is short-kicking, slow, and straight. Theyā€™re the worst three Sā€™s you can hear outside of the Syrian Secret Service.

There is no overlap run nor direction changes. No dynamism.

Teams have sweated on their short kicking game and have abused them the other way, conceding 9 goals a game off turnover.

Again, itā€™s slow and uninspired.

Moving Rivers to halfback is an attempt to get with the times, but he hasnā€™t played well there given how little they play to his strengths.

They have robbed Peter to pay nobody ā€“ theyā€™re slow in the midfield and donā€™t let their fastest midfielder run when heā€™s playing defence.

The final former strength-cum-weakness is that the defence has been poor.

Between 2021-2024, Melbourne were the best scoring shot per inside 50 defence in footy three times.

This year, theyā€™re the fourth worst.

While May and Lever havenā€™t played together this year, sending Petty back was supposed to stiffen their defence but it hasnā€™t worked.

Their dour ball movement and inability to defend stoppage makes setting up the ground impossible.

More than that, like the stars in midfield, May has slipped and Lever isnā€™t the same player without an elite May.

Finally, the forward line is just as dysfunctional as itā€™s been for years.

While they have tried to be more directional going inside 50, they just donā€™t have any winners inside 50, nor anyone who can hit targets inside 50.

The addition of Jack Billings was an attempt to help with their forward entries, and they did look for him early last season when they went inside 50.

I watched Billings at the Saints. Adding him to fix Melbourneā€™s forward problems is like Chelsea sending Rick to two therapy sessions in The White Lotus ā€“ a minor fix for a major problem.

In general, Melbourneā€™s game style feels stuck in the early part of the decade.

Footy has moved to faster ball movement, inside-out ability around the ball, and speed in general. Melbourne havenā€™t adapted.

The whole way down the list, the Dees arenā€™t athletic enough.

You compare the athletes on their list to Geelong, another team that were good early in the 2020s based on control but have since pivoted to prioritise run and carry and itā€™s chalk and cheese.

Even on Friday night with the Cats playing more of a control game, they still ran Melbourne ragged and won the ground balls by nine.

Drafting Caleb Windsor was a good start, but they need more of him.

In terms of the future, I am bullish even if Pickett leaves.

Van Rooyen, Windsor, Rivers, Lindsay and Langford all look to be building blocks.

Add in the 26 or under brigade with Petty, Turner, and Chandler and you might have a stew going.

But this era of Demons footy is over.

Believe your eyes when they show you the end.

 

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