Is Carlton Back?

Is Carlton Back?

GuyWhoLikesSport

In Flight, Denzel Washington plays a drug addict and alcoholic who is maybe a hero for saving countless lives by inverting a plane as it was crashing, or maybe a villain because he was sloshed while flying the plane.

For what it’s worth, I lean hero because he saved those people and since when did it become illegal for dudes to have hobbies?

I digress.

Anyway, gradually Denzel moves closer to rock bottom before he finally hits it.

He faces up to himself in front of a congressional-type hearing and admits that he is an alcoholic and a drug addict.

He ends the movie clean and sober, off the bottom, but he’s in jail.

He’s recovered to the middle.

That’s Carlton.

Their bottom – starting 0-4 – wasn’t representative of who they are and their strengths are too strong to stay there for a long time.

But their recovery (such as it is beating two of the worst teams in the AFL)  will land them in football jail – somewhere between seventh and 12th. That will be a success given their start.

Let’s start with the strengths.

Carlton is the best front half team in football this season.

Heading into their demolition of North, the Blues were fifth in the league in total intercepts and 39% of those intercepts were in the mid-forward zone or inside 50, best in the league.

https://twitter.com/JamesIves17/status/1911960909389701134/photo/1

Including the North game, the Blues are fifth in front half scoring, though that number is inflated by scoring 94 and 68 points from the front half against West Coast and North.

Even still, this team gets a lot of turnovers in good spots.

Another strength is the contest game.

They are the best clearance and contested ball team in football, though they are eighth in stoppage scoring – even with 77 points from stoppage against North.

Their final strength is their defence.

The Blues’ territory dominance shows in their inside 50 differential, which is second in the AFL.

But separate from that, even when the ball goes inside 50 against them, they’re the fourth best defence at stopping opponents registering scoring shots per inside 50.

The Blues are as subtle as Jack in The Shining.

They want to lock the ball inside 50 and set up high to generate repeat entries, they want to pressure teams as they try and come out of defence and they want contest wherever they can find it.

There’s no mystery to it.

The key is where improvement has come recently within those confines.

Against West Coast and North, Sam Walsh and Charlie Curnow have looked significantly better than they did earlier in the season, when I placed them on “Joel Embiid It’s Over Sooner than you Think Watch”.

Walsh is moving far more freely than he did earlier in the season and his footy has been better for it.

Curnow, while he isn’t jumping like he did, has had 20 score involvements and 13 shots over the last two games.

Those two, in addition to the dominant recent form of George Hewett and the revelations that have been Jesse Motlop and Corey Durdin as pressure forwards have helped Carlton take advantage of their territory dominance.

To underscore the point, on the season Carlton have had a scoring shot on 42% of their inside 50s on the season, third worst in the AFL.

Over the last two games, they have scored on about half of their 137 inside 50s, which would be first.

There are three factors helping the Blues improve their forward efficiency.

Firstly, the Blues have moved the ball better from the back half.

Outside of the Collingwood game, three out of their last four games have been their best for the season at back half scoring (including the Bulldogs game).

In fact, on the season Carlton is third at moving the ball from the defensive half to the forward 50.

They have hunted the corridor and had success doing it. Jack Silvagni’s distribution has been a feature.

Secondly, the Blues for the first time in the Michael Voss era, are clearly trying to hit leading forwards and be more directional with their entries.

What a concept!

Things have got better.

But…the third factor is that everyone is efficient against North and West Coast.

It’s generally not surprising that they have had success moving the ball in the last two weeks.

They played two of the three worst back half defences in the AFL.

It’s also not a massive shock that the Blues front half game went gangbusters against North and West Coast, two of the four worst back half teams in the AFL.

Playing North Melbourne and West Coast is a tonic for all-ills. It’s the AFL’s version of what Joe Rogan thinks ivermectin is.

But, and the but is important, there have been improvements that should send them up the ladder, particularly as players get healthier.

There is no false dawn here, the wider public knows who the Blues played.

But there’s not nothing here either.

So, is Carlton back? Sort of.