A massive weekend of footy action is coming up headed by a sensational Thursday Night Football clash between the unbeaten Bulldogs and the fancied Broncos at Suncorp before an Anzac Day triple header for the ages led by the traditional Roosters and Dragons clash from Allianz Stadium.
Round 8 opens up with a stellar affair with the unbeaten Canterbury Bulldogs travelling to Suncorp to meet a Brisbane Broncos team at an early crossroad of their season.
The Bulldogs only have Cronulla as a big scalp in their six wins but they are off back-to-back shutouts and have conceded just 14 points in their last four matches.
Overall, the Bulldogs are conceding fewer than 10 points per game and very much look the real deal.
Teams off a shutout are 16-6 against the spread across the last four seasons while Canterbury are 8-2 against the number off a win.
Brisbane have lost Reece Walsh and tend to slump badly with just three covers in their last 12 off a loss.
Brisbane are also wildly overrated at Suncorp with just one cover in their last 14 at the venue.
The Bulldogs should once again ride their defence to a win.
Josh Curran is an underrated tryscorer with three in five appearances this year while Jacob Preston gets a gun matchup against the fragile Broncos left edge.
He has three tries in his last five appearances.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Canterbury -4.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Brisbane 10 Points or Less ($3.30)
- Tryscorer: Josh Curran ($26 First, $5.20 Anytime)
- SGM: Josh Curran Try/Jacob Preston Try ($20.62)
One of the highlights of the NRL fixture, the Roosters and Dragons Anzac Day clash is always a solemn, passionate affair.
While both teams are down the bottom half of the ladder, this looms as a spicy affair with both teams in desperate need of a win.
The Roosters have dominated the Dragons of late with 11 wins in the last 13 clashes but it is hard to swallow them as favourites.
Dom Young has been dumped but they are still desperately short of talent.
The Roosters have covered just two of their last nine when favoured and just one of five off conceding 40 or more.
The Dragons are 23-13 against the spread when playing teams outside of the Top 8 and they cover 57% of NSW games.
Clint Gutherson has been the Dragons’ best and most influential player this season and can claim the Anzac Medal in his first appearance.
Tyrell Sloan is in excellent tryscoring nick with six tries in six showings this year.
Billy Smith has three tries in two games this year and looks the Roosters’ most likely weapon.
Recommended Bets
- Best: St George Illawarra 2.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Clint Gutherson Anzac Medal ($7.50)
- Tryscorer: Tyrell Sloan ($8.50 First, $1.92 Anytime)
- SGM: Tyrell Sloan Try/Billy Smith Try ($4.77)
The Warriors have enjoyed a strong start to the season with four wins sending them to fourth on the ladder.
Their only two losses have come to Canberra and Melbourne with both on the road against teams above them on the ladder.
They are a notably better team than Newcastle, who have managed to top 14 points just once this season, but the line in this one is too big.
The last six between these two have been split evenly with the Knights covering six of the last eight meetings.
New Zealand have covered just three of 15 when favoured by more than a converted try while Newcastle are a strong bounceback team with six covers in eight off conceding 30 or more points.
Dylan Lucas is an underrated tryscorer with 10 in 30 NRL appearances.
Greg Marzhew has 31 tries in 51 outings for the Knights while he has five tries in five games against the Warriors.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Newcastle +8.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Newcastle Win ($3.45)
- Tryscorer: Dylan Lucas ($26 First, $4.75 Anytime)
- SGM: Dylan Lucas Try/Greg Marzhew Ty ($10.19)
Melbourne rarely put in showings as poor as they did in the second half against the Dolphins and when they do they typically bounceback so that spells major trouble for the Rabbitohs this week.
The Storm remain without Harry Grant but have far too much firepower for a Souths team that has never won in Melbourne.
The Storm have won their last 10 off a loss while they are 9-5 against the spread off a defeat.
They have covered four straight off conceding 36-plus while they have covered five of six off a double digit loss.
Souths are a poor travelling team, covering just two of 11 interstate, while they have not covered any of their last four off a loss of 30-plus.
A big Storm win looms large here. Ryan Papenhuyzen has eight tries in six games against Souths, scoring at least one in every match. Grant Anderson has 13 tries in his last 20 NRL appearances.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Melbourne -14.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Melbourne 30+ ($4.10)
- Tryscorer: Ryan Papenhuyzen ($8.75 First, $1.83 Anytime)
- SGM: Ryan Papenhuyzen Try/Grant Anderson Try ($4.00)
North Queensland and Gold Coast have both endured rough starts to the season.
The Cowboys have started to somewhat turn it around with three straight wins including two on the road.
The Titans, by contrast, have dropped their last three and come into this off the back of blowing a 16-0 lead to the Raiders at home.
While the Cowboys have won 11 of the last 12 meetings in Townsville by at least 12 points, the line looks too big here given where both teams are at.
The Cowboys are 5-12 against the spread at home in their last 17 while they have covered just three of 11 against teams outside the top eight.
Gold Coast have covered the last three North Queensland while they are 8-2 against the spread getting a start of at least eight points.
AJ Brimson has been in super tryscoring form has five tries in his last four games.
Alofiana Khan-Pereira is an elite tryscorer with 46 tries in 46 games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Gold Coast +8.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Gold Coast Win ($3.00)
- Tryscorer: AJ Brimson ($19 First, $3.45 Anytime)
- SGM: AJ Brimson Try/Alofiana Khan-Pereira Try ($6.43)
The narrative after last week’s win over the Roosters is that Penrith are back and getting their season on the right track.
Dylan Edwards and Nathan Cleary were both excellent but the side seems to be a long way off the pace.
Manly have been incredibly poor in their last three but get Tom Trbojevic back.
The Sea Eagles side just moves with much more cohesion with Turbo at the back and they look a huge chance to not only cover against Penrith but collect the two premiership points.
Manly have covered eight of 10 off a loss and six of nine on the road, while Penrith are 5-10 against the spread when favoured and just one of six at CommBank, chips in Manly in this one.
Tolutau Koula has four tries in four games.
Tom Trbojevic has 106 tries in 155 games and is one of the great try threats in the NRL.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Manly +5.5 ($1.96)
- Next: Manly 13+ ($6.40)
- Tryscorer: Tolutau Koula ($19 First, $3.40 Anytime)
- SGM: Tolutau Koula Try/Tom Trbojevic Try ($7.51)
The Raiders and the Dolphins is arguably the most difficult game of the weekend to pick.
Canberra have been very good riding a favourable draw into the Top 4 this year while the Dolphins have been regurgent with three straight wins after a shocking start to the year.
Canberra have covered six of seven off a win and four of five at home but the underdog has covered all three in this matchup with the last two decided by a point.
Expect a close game with Canberra expected to get the nod.
Sebastian Kris is in career best form with six tries in seven matches this year including crossing in the last three.
Hudson Young is in white-hot form with three straight doubles.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Canberra 1-12 ($2.90)
- Next: Either Team Under 6.5 Points ($2.85)
- Tryscorer: Sebastian Kris ($11.50 First, $2.35 Anytime)
- SGM: Sebastian Kris Try/Hudson Young Try ($5.44)
Round 8 wraps up with one of the better bets of the round with the Tigers big home underdogs at Leichhardt against the Sharks.
The Tigers are enduring a tumultuous time but have recalled Lachlan Galvin into the top grade this week.
Regardless of your views on him, he no doubt gives the club a better chance of winning.
The Sharks have dominated this matchup with 11 wins in the last 13 meetings but the Tigers won the last meeting at Leichhardt 32-6.
Home underdogs in Rounds 5-8 cover at 64% while the Tigers are 7-3 against the spread off conceding 30-plus.
The Sharks have failed to cover four straight off a double digit win.
Jahream Bula has scored in his last two.
Briton Nikora has three tries in his last seven against the Tigers.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Wests Tigers +6.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Wests Tigers Win ($2.80)
- Tryscorer: Jahream Bula ($14 First, $2.75 Anytime)
- SGM: Jahream Bula Try/Briton Nikora Try ($6.85)