The stage is set for another cracking Super Bowl!
The Kansas City Chiefs will take on the Philadelphia Eagles in New Orleans for Super Bowl 59 and if you think you’re suffering from a case of Deja Vu I’m happy to report that you’re not. We have seen these two teams in the Super Bowl recently.
Super Bowl LVII or 57 for my friends who hate roman numerals and it was one of the most exciting matchups we’ve seen in quite a while.
There’s plenty to get excited about on either side of the ball this year. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have the opportunity to be the first team ever to win three Super Bowls in a row and edge closer to the Penrith Panthers as one of the greatest sporting dynasties of the 2020s.
It’s been an incredibly strange season for the Chiefs this year. Unsexy and unflattering football at times. The Chiefs did just enough to win almost every week this season. They finished 15-2 in the regular season with just two wins all season by a margin of more than two touchdowns.
It clearly doesn’t matter how you get it done in the eyes of KC. With just one loss to Buffalo in the regular season and then a 38-0 blowout in the final week with a rotated squad. Like all good sporting dynasties of recent memory, they’ve had one eye on the Super Bowl all season and have waited till it matters most to start really performing.
They are a serious chance of the three peat but there is still a very formidable force in their way.
The Philadelphia Eagles revived old school football this season.
The signing of divisional rival running back Saquon Barkley has easily been the best bit of business arguably in world sport this year.
The Eagles have always prided themselves on having a strong offensive line and when they paired that with Barkley, one of the most talented running backs we’ve seen in quite some time, it was almost inevitable that they would make the Super Bowl out of the NFC.
Barkley finished the regular season with 2,005 yards and 13 touchdowns, combine that with 14 rushing tds from Quarterback Jalen Hurts and the tush push. The Eagles’ ground game is a defensive coordinators’ nightmare. You know it’s coming but good luck stopping it.
Philly finished the year at 14-3 and have really hit their form at the perfect time.
Can Philly get their revenge on the Chiefs or will we see Mahomes magic yet again in this one?
There’s so much to get excited about here.
AND I haven’t even mentioned that Kendrick Lamar, K DOT, Kung Fu Kenny… the motherf****ing boogeyman himself is playing at halftime.
As always, I’ve run my eyes over the market, had a crack at finding some winners and gotten a little fruity with it on some longer odds plays.
Will every single one of these get up? Certainly not but hopefully my reasoning and logic can steer us into a few winning betslips on the day.
Here is my preview of Super Bowl 59!
Deleted:CheChhttps://twitter.com/NedsAus/status/1597835676011352064?s=20&t=Ha9aYYdxebulUHROLkNlh
In the last six Super Bowls, a player from the favourite team has been the first touchdown scorer let’s take a look back at the previous first TD scorers.
2023: Christian McCaffrey (Rec TD, 49ers)
2022: Jalen Hurts (Rush TD, Eagles)
2021: Odell Beckham (Rec TD, Rams)
2020: Rob Gronkowski (Rec TD, Bucs)
2019: Patrick Mahomes (Rush TD, Chiefs)
2018: Sony Michel (Rush TD, Patriots)
The last time the Chiefs were favourites in a Super Bowl, deep fried pangolin was a top seller in chinese wet markets and I had to come into the office five days a week.
A bizarre thing to think about when you consider what the Chiefs have gone on to do since then.
Nevertheless, it’s worth following this trend and my main 1st TD scorer this year is Kareem Hunt.
Hunt has been the first TD scorer in five of Kansas City’s games this season, the most of any player from KC this season and looks good value to me at $9.
The best part about the 1st TD market is that the odds are long enough to have a couple different plays to hedge your bets here and I’ve watched the Chiefs enough over the years to know that they save some kooky plays for when they need them the most and the boys with higher odds in this market are a decent chance.
Travis Kelce ($8.25) is an obvious name and an obvious favourite target of Mahomes but I like having a dabble on some of the more obscure names.
The other three that call my name on this list for Kansas City are all sitting right next to eachother. Juju Smith-Schuster ($26) has won a Super Bowl with KC before and could very easily have a specific goal line play drawn up for him. As could Noah Gray ($26) and DeAndre Hopkins ($26). I think there’s enough value there to back all four.
If you think that the trend of favourites scoring the first TD ends this year then there’s plenty to back for Philadelphia.
Saquon Barkley ($4.50) Has been the first TD scorer in six of the Eagles’ games this year and is the clear favourite in the market while Jalen Hurts ($6.60) has been first TD scorer twice. If you think the Philly run game will get established early. Those boys are the ones to back here.
AJ Brown ($10) has also been first TD scorer twice this year and for no reasoning other than value, I also like Dallas Goedert ($17) to find pay dirt first for Philly.
While trawling throw Philly’s games, I noticed that if it wasn’t Saquon this year, it was often someone down the depth chart such as Jahan Dotson ($67) or even Ainas Smith ($151) who has saluted in this market this year. There is a chance some of these lesser known guys go over first. I’m not willing to tip them but it has been done.
My Picks
- Chiefs
- Kareem Hunt @ $9.00
- Travis Kelce @ $8.25
- Juju Smith-Schuster @ $26
- Noah Gray @ $26
- DeAndre Hopkins @ $26
- Eagles
- Saquon Barkley @ $4.50
- Jalen Hurts @ $6.60
- AJ Brown @ $10
- Dallas Goedert @ $17
Jalen Hurts Under 212.5 Passing Yards @ $1.88 – The Chiefs defence has averaged 218.8 pass yards allowed per game this season and 207 per game in the playoffs this season. Hurts has averaged 193.53 pass yards per game in the regular season and 168.33 in the playoffs
Saquon Barkley Over 116.5 Rushing Yards @ $1.88 – Easily the biggest rushing yard line for an individual player we’ve ever seen in a Super Bowl. Saquon averaged 125.31 rushing yards per game in the regular season and has 147.33 rush yards per game in the playoffs. The Chiefs have allowed 101.8 rush yards per game in the regular season but a massive 148 rush yards allowed per game in the playoffs. I expect Saquon to get a lot of work for Philly and I think he matches up incredibly well.
Patrick Mahomes Under 250.5 Passing Yards – This will be a really sweaty watch. Mahomes has averaged 245.5 passing yards per game and 211 in the post season. The Eagles had the best pass defence in the regular season allowing just 174.2 pass yards allowed per game and 245.7 in the playoffs. While he may go over ever so slightly. I don’t think Mahomes will need to throw 250+ to win this game.
Travis Kelce Over 62.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.88 – It was Kelce’s worst ever year in the NFL from a yardage perspective. He finished the regular season with just 823 yards to his name at an average of 51.43 per game but is averaging 68 yards per game in the playoffs. He is Mahomes’ most reliable target in this game and will be called upon a lot if the Chiefs want the three peat.
The obvious picks are the guys I’ve already backed for first TD such as Saquon Barkley ($1.50), Jalen Hurts ($1.90), Travis Kelce ($2.20) and Kareem Hunt ($2.35) but there’s not a lot of value there as an anytime. I highly recommend including Saquon or Hurts in a multi but as one off bets you won’t see much return if they go over.
Patrick Mahomes ($3.90) for a rushing touchdown at some point looks to a be a play for me here. The QB already has two rushing TDs this post season and that could easily be a trend that they look to continue in this game.
The Chiefs rookie Xavier Worthy ($2.55) is another I would be adding into my considerations here. Arguably one of the fastest players in the league. I think Worthy might have a few specific plays drawn up for him that could see him cross the plain here.
I think it’s smart to back whoever you’ve picked for first TD as a bit of insurance but I will also be taking two of Mahomes’ lesser known but reliable receivers when he needs them Noah Gray ($5.50) and Justin Watson ($11.50). Two guys we’ve seen catch touchdowns in the past and have all thought “Why them? They’re not fantasy or gambling relevant”
My Picks
- Saquon Barkley @ $1.50
- Jalen Hurts @ $1.90
- Travis Kelce @ $2.20
- Kareem Hunt @ $2.35
- Patrick Mahomes @ $3.90
- Noah Gray @ $5.50
- Justin Watson @ $11.50
Realistically, there are only three players that can win this award.
While we have seen the likes of Cooper Kupp and Julian Edelman take this out in previous years. It is incredibly unlikely we will see a non Quarterback win this.
My recommendation here is to back the Quarterback of the team you think will win whether it’s Patrick Mahomes ($2.10) or Jalen Hurts ($4.50).
However the other player that is worth a look in is Eagles RB Saquon Barkley ($2.60) who is shorter in this market than his QB.
I’m not super old and some fossil will take offense to this but I’ve never seen a running back as threatening as Saquon in my time. The Eagles will not win unless he runs for 100+ and atleast one TD.
AND the Super Bowl is on his birthday.
There’s only been two Running backs to run for 100 yards in a Super Bowl in the last 10 years. Damien Williams (104) in 2020 and Marshawn Lynch (102) in 2015. Barkley will need to firstly do that and then score at least twice AND THEN the Eagles will need to win if he is to beat his QB in this market.
It’s a tall order but not out of the realm of possibilities.
My Picks
- Patrick Mahomes @ $2.10
- Jalen Hurts @ $4.50
- Saquon Barkley @ $2.60
After all that waffle it’s finally time for me to pick a winner and as much as I’d love Saquon to win one and shove it straight into my beloved NY Giants face.
I’m with the Chiefs here.
The Eagles run game is near unstoppable but are they willing to stick with it if they have to chase this game?
Kansas City just know how to win these games, I think they are far too professional and far too good as a unit to not win this one and I think that given this is the first Super Bowl since their 2019 hitout against Jimmy G and the 49ers where they are the betting favourites says a lot.
We are in the middle of one of the great sporting dynasties and I’m willing to back that being cemented with yet another Chiefs Super Bowl win here.
With the betting line at 1.5 i don’t think there’s any point in backing either at the line.
Lowkey I want to be a coward and just back over 49.5 total points and just enjoy the game but we’ve come this far. I can’t get splinters in my bum sitting on the fence in the biggest game of the year.
My Picks
- Chiefs H2H @ $1.80
- Over 49.5 Total Points @ $1.90