NFL Playoffs: The Likeihood of Winning it All

NFL Playoffs: The Likeihood of Winning it All

GuyWhoLikesSport

We’re finally here. It’s playoff time in the NFL, and for 14 teams hope abounds.

The idea for this column is simple. I’m tiering the 14 playoff teams by what I think is their likelihood of winning the Super Bowl.

Each tier gets a Whiplash quote, because the NFL is the only thing as unforgiving as Terrence Fletcher.

“If you want the f**king part, earn it”

1. Ravens 
2. Lions 
3. Bills 
4. Chiefs 

Like Neiman, these four teams earned the part.

And there’s a hair between them.

Earlier this week, I wrote that the NFL’s two conferences are a battle of system versus superstar. This tier shows the potency of both methods of winning

We have the three best players in the NFL in Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes alongside the quarterback operating the best unit in the league in Jared Goff.

They are the three best offences in the league by EPA/play over the period from weeks 11-17 (when all were playing competitive football), and the fourth team has Patrick Mahomes, who it would be truly idiotic to bet against in high leverage situations.

Even in the worst year of his career, Mahomes has piloted the best offence in the league on third and fourth down by success rate.

My eyes show me that this Chiefs team is the worst of the best, but that isn’t enough to drop them down a tier.

Defensively, only the Ravens have had elite metrics over the same period of these teams sitting top by EPA/play (some of that is the schedule). If Zay Flowers is healthy, they’re my favourites.

In fact, if they don’t beat the Steelers in round 1 Lamar is rapidly entering Sonny Corleone “can’t be trusted in a big spot” territory.

We’ve also seen Steve Spagnuolo and the Chiefs do it before in the playoffs (read: last year) so I don’t care about their regular season numbers.

The other two are more complex.

For Detroit, I want to make special mention of what they did against Minnesota. They won the #1 seed by blitzing heavily and playing man behind it, even when they were down to their third and fourth corners.

It was a crazy performance, and it gives me hope in Aaron Glenn come playoff time even with all of the defensive injuries and their poor defensive EPA prior to week 18.

Buffalo, by way of contrast, have the 22nd defence in the league by EPA/play, which would render a normal team more doomed than Nieman’s romantic chances with the girl from the cinema.

However, most teams don’t have Josh Allen playing like a super hero so you can’t drop them a tier.

“When did you become a f**king expert on what I can or cannot do, you fucking weepy willow shitsack?”

5. Eagles 
6. Vikings 
7. Packers
8. Rams 

I think you could make the argument that there are two tiers in this tier of teams who won’t allow the top tier to define what is and isn’t achievable for them.

The Lions are not experts on what the Packers can achieve.

Anyway, the Eagles and Vikings sit atop this tier as talented, veteran laden teams who are top 10 in both offensive and defensive EPA/play.

Both teams have stacked supporting casts around good but not elite quarterbacks, brilliant minds at the co-ordinators, with talent at every level of the roster.

However, I’ve included the Packers and Rams because I trust coach, quarterback, and talent too much to lower them.

It’s like the Australian cricket team picking Mitch Marsh. I prefer the flawed known to the unknown unknown.

Green Bay’s statistical case is easier to make, with a top-10 offence and defence by EPA/play since week 11, while the Rams’ have the history of having done it before.

The Rams also have all of their offensive weaponry, while the Packers lost their best explosive player in Christian Watson.

I also think it’s worth noting that Green Bay have given Detroit a close game not long ago, and the Rams beat Buffalo in a barnburner relatively recently as well.

Anyway, it’s my list and you are not an expert on what I can and cannot do.

“Were you rushing or were you dragging?”

9. Chargers 
10. Buccaneers 
11. Commanders 
12. Broncos 

These are teams with one elite unit and another team that is, in fact, dragging them down.

Glad we got to the bottom of that before a cymbal was piffed at my head.

I have defined an elite unit as top-5 across the season by EPA/play. By that metric, the Broncos have the best defence while the Chargers are fifth best.

The other two teams, the Commanders and Buccaneers, have the fourth and fifth best offences in the league.

The Chargers are at the top here because they have Justin Herbert to pair with their elite defence, who is the best quarterback of the lot.

Having him paired with that Jim Harbaigh/Jesse Minter defence is the football equivalent of Fletcher finding his Bird.

Harbaugh finally has his muse at signal caller in the NFL.

From there I’ve preferred the better offences because offence has tended to win championships recently.

I want to make mention of Washington and Jayden Daniels who have converted 20/23 fourth down attempts. That 87% is the best mark in the league by 15%. The same as the difference between Buffalo at two and the Raiders at 15.

In any case, the other side of the ball is generally dragging these elite units down and their teams know that improvements need to be made to push up a tier or two.

“There are no two words in the English language more harmful than “good job”.”

13. Texans 
14. Steelers ($67.00)

Don’t tell these teams good job for making the playoffs. It’s harmful.

If you tell them good job, like national media has been telling Mike Tomlin for a decade, then they’ll probably keep doing what they’re doing rather than striving for more.

The Steelers are particularly guilty of hamstringing their season from the start with their self-imposed cap on good quarterback play, despite their victory lap on spending $3.6m against the cap on quarterback.

The Texans are less guilty of organisational malpractice but still won’t win the whole thing until they bring in a better play-caller than Bobby Slowik.

These teams won’t win. Don’t congratulate them for making it. Don’t stunt their growth.

 

 

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