The Five Most Likely Teams to Win the Super Bowl

The Five Most Likely Teams to Win the Super Bowl

Dylan Leach

Bill Belichick always said that the season starts after Thanksgiving.

Those stateside have eaten their first helping of turkey (turkey is the most overrated poultry and the worst part of Christmas) for this two-month period so it’s a good time to check in on the pointy end of the NFL.

This is not a ranking of who the best teams are right now, but instead it’s a projection.

I’ll rank the five teams that I think are most likely to win and point out their possibly fatal flaw.

1. Detroit Lions 

The Lions have to be the favourites.

They are going around teaching lessons like they’re George Bluth enlisting J Walter Weatherman.

I can just imagine Dan Campbell, after successfully getting an irresponsible fourth down yelling at Antonio Pierce “THAT’S WHY YOU ALWAYS GO FOR IT”.

They lead the league with a +183 point differential and are 12-1. They lead the league in offensive success rate and are in the top-5 for every important offensive metric.

They’re also the best defence in the NFL by EPA and are, again, top-5 in every defensive metric.

This is a talent-laden, bully football team built through the trenches. They’re also the smartest, gutsiest team in the room with Dan Campbell, Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn at the controls.

They’re like Tommy Shelby. At once the smartest, toughest, most charismatic, and most interesting.

Fatal flaw: Defensive line injuries. The Lions have lost star pass rusher Aiden Hutchinson for the season and virtually every other key front 7 player has or is currently missing time.

Since the loss of Hutchinson particularly they are struggling for pass rush sitting 16th in sacks on the season. While they get pressure at the fifth highest rate in the league, largely because they are just throwing bodies at the problem, they are struggling to convert without their ace.

2. Philadelphia Eagles

I wrote about the Eagles a couple of weeks ago and described them as the bad good team. That is, among the best teams in the league but the worst of them, mostly because of deficiencies at head coach.

Since then, the Birds have beaten each of the Commanders, Rams and Ravens.

They might be better than I thought.

Since week 9, nobody is running the ball more effectively and it means less and less is being put on the passing game, much to some receivers’ chagrin.

However, their ability to run the ball is making AJ Brown into a breathing chunk play.

He sits top of the league in yards per reception among all receivers over 40 catches.

The defence is the real story, however, with Vic Fangio reaching his platonic ideal of a defence. This personnel with Fangio is like your friend describing his dream girl for 15 years, then eventually meeting her when he’s in his late 40s after a lifetime of dating girls who are close but not quite

He has a dominant defensive line led by Jalen Carter which means he doesn’t have to devote extra resources to stopping the run. He has versatile and smart safeties, a strong nickel and good enough outside corner play to the point where he can make the quarterback do calculus every time he snaps the ball.

It’s Detroit and Philadelphia then it’s everyone else.

Fatal flaw: Nick Sirianni. What I wrote about after the Jacksonville game still holds true. I fear what decisions Siranni might make when a big game gets close.

 

3. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs aren’t very good. They’re only this high because they have Patrick Mahomes and they’ve done this before.

They have a worse point differential than the Broncos. They’re the ninth best offence in the league by EPA/play and the 15th best defence.

This is a grinding team that avoids negative plays on offence as they’re second in success rate and lead the NFL in rushing success rate. The Chiefs lead the league in plays per drive because they’re so non-explosive.

In 2018, Mahomes’ first year as a starter, the Chiefs were 12th in plays per drive on the way to 35 points per game. The Chiefs haven’t scored 35 points since September 2023.

What was once the sexiest, most explosive offence led in the league is now metronomic and dull. It’s like Sydney Sweeney playing ugly for an Oscar.
Anyway, they’re 12-1.

They shouldn’t be this high. They shouldn’t be on the list. But did this last year and won the whole thing, and they beat Buffalo for fun in the playoffs so I have to put them this high.

Fatal flaw: Travis Kelce is a year older. Last year in the playoffs, Travis Kelce turned it on and became the legend we all know and Taylor Swift loves. He was the star in the passing game that turbocharged them from metronomic to supersonic.

This year, he doesn’t have that gear anymore. For the first time in his career he’s averaging fewer than 10 yards per catch. He’s also averaging a career low in run after catch and is averaging his highest number of receptions per broken tackle with 25.

He’s cooked, and there’s nobody to fill the breach.

4. Buffalo Bills

The Bills have gone from a soft, finesse football team with Josh Allen at quarterback to a downhill, at-you football team with Josh Allen at quarterback and they’re better for it.

Since week 10 the Bills are the number 2 rushing team in the NFL led by James Cook and Josh Allen behind only Saquon Barkley’s Eagles. They’re also the second best passing team by EPA/play, even after the game they played in the snow against San Francisco in week 13. They’re the second highest scoring team in the league.

Defensively they are also good despite the Rams shootout this week, which says more about the Rams than anything else in my view.

Sean McDermott has fashioned them into one of the most sound and unpredictable teams in the league on that side of the ball.

Their soundness is underscored by missing the second fewest tackles in the league and conceding the second fewest air yards per opponent pass attempt.

The unpredictability is seen in the number of different looks he’ll show an offence.

Unlike McDermott’s heroes the 9/11 hijackers, his unpredictability is leading to real success (people forget the 9/11 hijackers were 1 from 3).

Fatal flaw: Lack of star power. Even though they’ve changed their offensive identity, this was meant to be a reset year for the Bills. They’re not as talent laden on either side of the ball as the other contenders, outside of the MVP Josh Allen.

Where this might show up is the lack of an ace in the passing game like they had with Stefon Diggs previously, or the lack of a true star on defence like the injured Matt Milaon.

The trade for Amari Cooper was an attempt to get the guy and win the Super Bowl. However, he has mostly been disappointing as a Bill so far outside of the Rams game.

It might just be a year too early for these Bills.

5. Baltimore Ravens

Everyone is out on the Ravens and would have the Packers here, especially after the Ravens were torn apart by the Eagles in week 13 in a pseudo prime time game.

Not me though, not quite.

Prior to the Eagles game this was one of the very best offensive teams in league history, averaging over 7 yards per play which would be the best ever (they’re down to 6.8).

This is still an elite offence led by an elite quarterback in Lamar Jackson. They are the number 1 offence in the league in net yards per pass attempt, and yards per rush attempt. No team has amassed more first downs. No team is better in the red zone.

The Ravens have lost five games this season by a combined 22 points. Justin Tucker has missed 22 points worth of kicks.

The defence also isn’t great, particularly against the pass as they 27th in dropback EPA/play because they leak big plays, but the offence is so exceptional that they still have to be contenders.

Fatal flaw: Defence and kicking. The defence is stout against the run but awful against the pass, which is good news for playoff games played outside in wintry conditions but bad news for a Super Bowl that will be played indoors in Vegas.

The bigger issue is the kicker Justin Tucker, who is the second worst kicker in the NFL this season.

It feels like this season ends on a Tucker missed kick for the Ravens.

 

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