GuyWhoLikesSport’s Very Original AFL Trade Value Column – Part 1

GuyWhoLikesSport’s Very Original AFL Trade Value Column – Part 1

GuyWhoLikesSport

It’s that time of year that gossip journalists masquerading as football journalists love more than anything – trade period!

In light of this exciting time, it’s time for the AFL Trade Value Column.

This is a Bill Simmons NBA column that I am blatantly stealing and applying to the AFL. The idea of the gimmick is a simple one – would a team trade player X for player Y? If yes, then that player has more trade value. If no, then the player has less.

That’s it.

This game occurs in a vacuum where players can’t tell teams “I want to be traded but only to this club” but rather it works on a value basis.

Crazy world, I know.

Everything matters in this game, including age and contract status. In previous years, I have tried to piece together the money that’s still owing on players’ deals but financial information is getting harder to decipher.

With the new CBA money is cheaper in the AFL so $800,000 now is worth less against the cap than it was even two years ago, and then we also don’t know about money tied to a percentage of the cap.

In short, we don’t have enough understanding of the new cap for any roundabout financial figures to be of any real value.

All I have done is worked out how many years are left on a player’s deal.

Despite what good friend of Neds Kane Cornes says, I think a long-term contract for a star player makes them a more valuable trade asset.

If you trade for a long-term contracted player, you only have to bite the cherry once. You know what they’re making and you can plan for it, so you’re just parting with the assets.

If you trade for someone on a shorter-term deal, assuming the AFL contract market works like every other professional sport market, the next guy up gets the most money. You have to trade the assets and give him the money.

It’s a two-bite situation. You don’t want a two-bite situation.

Before I get into it, I want to make three points:

1. The game has now completely moved past Tom Mitchell style accumulators.
They are irrelevant in a modern game that prioritises damage above all else. The closest player to Tom Mitchell on the list is Lachie Neale.

Comparing Neale to Mitchell is like comparing Picasso to your art teacher.

2. Dovetailing from the top point, footy is now more about ball use than pure territory.
Of the six teams that made it the deepest in finals, four of them were elite, intricate ball use teams (Geelong and Port Adelaide the exceptions).

Brisbane won the premiership this year in part because they adapted their control style to a more propulsive game in the finals series with more forward handball and quicker ball movement but great kicking was still the backbone of their game style.

We’re now at the point where the two dominant styles of the last decade – the Richmond style territory game and the Hawthorn style surgery game – have melded.

It’s like a fusion of flash dance and MC Hammer shit.

This new reality, in part, has forced a guy like Sam Walsh off the list.

3. Finally, defenders. In previous years, I have devalued defenders because defence is such a whole-of-ground concept today. I still think that’s true, with only one of the six best defensive teams in the AFL had truly elite defensive personnel (Fremantle)

However, if you look at the eight teams in finals and what really matters in modern footy, six had elite intercept players (Sydney and the Bulldogs are the exceptions). If you look at that same group of teams, only two had an elite key forward (the Giants and Carlton – maybe also the Bulldogs but it’s arguable).

Both scoring and defending are whole of ground, whole of team efforts.

Key forwards are still harder to find and that’s partly why teams are addicted to taking elite defenders and making them just-good forwards.

But, given that virtually none of the best teams had an elite forward this year and all of them had an elite intercepting player, and considering the contracts being handed to intercepting backs, I have valued them more highly this season than previously.

With all of that said, let’s get to the list.

“Hands off our champion”

27. Lachie Neale (31, 2 years left)
26. Isaac Heeney (28, 4 years left)
25. Patrick Cripps (29, 2 years left)
24. Marcus Bontempelli (29, 1 year left)

These are the four oldest players on the list, but they are also the most accomplished and iconic at their respective clubs. That’s the trade-off.

They are champions now and are smack bang in their primes, but they’re at the tail ends.

If any of them play in Grand Finals any time soon, we’re approaching Michael Jordan in the 1998 finals “the old guy’s still got it” storylines.

Next-gen key forwards (and Jake Waterman)

23. Jake Waterman (26, 5 years left)
22. Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (22, 2 years left)
21. Ben King (24, 2 years left)
20. Josh Treacy (22, 6 years left)

These are clearly the three best young key forwards (and Jake Waterman) in the AFL.

All of them sat in the top-20 for both shots and marks inside 50 among all key forwards and all bar king were in the top 10 for score involvements.

These are good players, but none kick enough goals to be real needle movers like the truly elite key forwards like Jesse Hogan and Charlie Curnow.

But they have so much potential, and play such a valuable position, that they have to be on the list.

At the moment, the four on this list are more flash than substance. More Saltburn than Talented Mr Ripley.

The Backbone

19. James Sicily (29, 3 years left)
18. Jacob Weitering (27, 1 year left)
17. Harris Andrews (28, 5 years left)
16. Mac Andrew (21, 6 years left)
15. Sam Taylor (25, 8 years left)

Mac Andrew is the one that sticks out here.

The other four are exactly the kinds of elite, intercept players that I was talking about valuing more highly in the open and look at the years that they have left.

Teams value them too.
The outlier is obviously Jacob Weitering, who needs all the money that he can get.

Why is Andrew here? He’s younger than everyone else by at least four years, has the most years left on his deal, and took as many intercept marks this season as James Sicily, and Steven May.

He’s the best athlete of the bunch and is just as smart with his positioning, particularly relative to his experience.

One plea, before we move off the backbones here: DON’T PLAY DEFENDERS AS FORWARDS! If Hawthorn get Barass and Battle the talk is that they’ll move Sicily forward.

Why?

Don’t.

He’s the best kick in the AFL and is such an elite defender, especially for his size. Don’t turn him into a tweener forward.

It’s more dire with Andrew, who spent time playing both forward and in the ruck this season, as well as his best position as a key back.

The best way to wreck a young player is to swing him around. I barrack for Richmond and I saw Dimma and now Yze do it with Noah Balta.

Don’t do it with Andrew. He’s a bouncy, rangy intercept defender and he’s already elite at it.

If Damien Hardwick says the word “swingman” and your name in a sentence, you’d better hope he’s asking for a wife swap situation.

Stay tuned for part 2, where we unveil 14-1!

 

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