The longest offseason in world sport officially draws to a close this Friday and to say I’m excited may be one of the great understatements.
The NFL returns this weekend and you have to tip your hat to the scriptwriters once again. This season already has some incredible storylines and a ball is yet to be snapped, kicked, tossed, fumbled or spiked.
Can the Chiefs make it three in a row?
Will rookie Caleb Williams live up to his monster expectations and take Chicago deep in his first year?
Lamar Jackson is now a two-time MVP, can he finally fulfil his draft night promise to the Ravens that they’re going to get a Super Bowl “out of him?”
I can keep going but I’ve been told I’m on a strict word count this year.
Just like previous years punters, I’ll be giving you my thoughts on every game of the 2024/25 season.
Fingers crossed we land a few winners like last year!
I’ve been waiting for this… here is my preview of Week 1 of the NFL Season.
Friday morning we finally get underway!
Last years Super Bowl Champions the Kansas City Chiefs will host Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in what should be hopefully be not only a tight contest but a preview of a playoff game towards the end of the season this year.
The Chiefs were upset in a big way by the Detroit Lions in last season’s opener and a play on the $2.25 Ravens is not the dumbest shout here.
Everyone knows how good Lamar and the Ravens are and this game could very easily be decided by a field goal.
With the line set at exactly three points, I’m struggling to pick a side.
You know what doesn’t scare me off though? Player yardage markets.
Patrick Mahomes despite winning another ring, was underwhelming on the statsheet by his standards in 2023, averaging “just” 261.43 yards per game last year and just 1.68 TDs per game.
Clearly it was enough but I don’t expect Mahomes to coast like he did last year.
The Chiefs went out and drafted speedster Xavier Worthy in the First Round who ran the fastest 40 yard dash time in combine history and 2023 breakout highway speedster Rashee Rice is unlikely to face any suspension this season.
This is a revamped passing attack that should once again light up the AFC.
Pat’s passing line is set at 263.5 for this game, comfortable over for me as well as 60+ receiving yards for Rashee Rice and 60+ for Mr Travis Kelce.
On the Baltimore side of the offense, Derrick Henry is the new lead back and while a lot of people expect him to continue his dominance.
I’d like to watch a few Ravens games and see his usage before tipping you any King Henry, what I can tip you however is Lamar Jackson’s rushing line.
Arguably the most prolific rushing QB of all time, Lamar’s line is set at 48.5 yards to get things started this year and I’m happy to take his overs to get things started.
He averaged 51.25 rush yards per game last year and you’d imagine he would be pretty keen to stretch his legs in Week 1.
Zay Flowers is one of the WRs I’m tipping for a proper breakout this season, emerging as Baltimore’s top pass catcher last season when Mark Andrews was hurt but I think he’s done enough to command a bigger share of the offense in his second season. I’m very comfortable taking his yardage overs.
My Bets
- Patrick Mahomes Over 263.5 Passing Yards @ $1.88
- Lamar Jackson Over 48.5 Rushing Yards @ $1.88
- Rashee Rice 60+ Receiving Yards @ $1.78
- Travis Kelce 60+ Receiving Yards @ $1.96
- Zay Flowers Over 53.5 Rush Yards @ $1.88
Anytime Touchdown Tip
- Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.02
It’s a bit of a funky start to the season. This year we have a Saturday morning game… In Brazil.
The post Jason Kelce era in Philly officially begins and I’m fascinated to see just how big of a (literal) hole that leaves in the Eagles.
The signing of Saquon Barkley from my NY Giants is a huge addition this year and makes me wonder if they will be shying away from the tush push that they made famous in 2023.
There’s a lot to love in Green Bay as well, Jordan Love’s rise to stardom last year was very enjoyable to watch and this Packers side have a lot of points in them.
I promise I will tip some result markets soon but this is another game that’s too close in the betting market, has too short of a line and is being played in a neutral venue that has no historical data, so let’s take a play on the overs.
Jordan Love has more pass catching talent than you can poke a stick at this season, a play on his passing yards is where I’m looking here.
We also have a new combo market on Neds for receiving yards and given how hard they were to split last year. I think combining both AJ Brown and Devonta Smith for 150+ receiving yards might be where we get our season started off.
My Bets
- Over 48.5 Total Points @ $1.90
- Jordan Love Over 255.5 Passing Yards @ $1.90
- AJ Brown/ Devonta Smith 150+ Passing Yards Combined @ $2.10
- Multi $6.42
Set your alarms punters, the first slate of early games gets started with an AFC South showdown between two second year QBs who have a lot to prove.
CJ Stroud and the Texans look value to me here at $1.70, in fact the 2.5 point line looks even better.
I’m happy to be proven wrong but I am not an Anthony Richardson truther he simply has not played enough football for me to back him and a team he leads with confidence.
The Texans will be much improved this year, the signings of Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs just make this team far more exciting and I think the fact the bookies think this will be close is laughable.
My Bets
- Houston Texans -2.5 @ $1.90
- CJ Stroud Over 275.5 Passing Yards @ $1.88
- Joe Mixon Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $1.94
- Multi $4.96
The Saints are the short priced favourites in this NFC South rivalry game but I’m actually tipping an upset here.
The Panthers were bad last year do not get me wrong, they were horrendous.
However I’m feeling quite confident that new head coach Dave Canales will be able to work his magic against a New Orleans side that I believe will be in possession of a top 5 draft pick in April.
The Panthers have upgraded both their offensive line and their wide receiver room and we should hopefully now get a proper assessment on last years first overall pick Bryce Young and I believe that we will see good things from him.
I’m getting bold here but now is the time to cash in on a player like Bryce Young. The talent is clearly there, it’s all about the system he’s in now and while the bookies have his lines short, we can make a bit of coin.
My Bets
- Carolina Panthers H2H @ $2.70
- Bryce Young 225+ Passing Yards @ $2.45
- Bryce Young 2+ Passing Touchdowns @ $2.95
- Multi $5.66
The New York Football Giants will not be very good this year and I am quite confident of that.
They certainly have the foundations of a good team but they are multiple years away from competing and I believe the doom and gloom begins against this Vikings team.
Sam Darnold gets a full season with Justin Jefferson and this Vikings offense and even though I don’t believe they win many games this season.
I think they’ll start strong against the Giants.
$1.82 for Minnesota is where I’m leaning, I just don’t see a world where Daniel Jones, Devin Singletary, Malik Nabers on debut and the cast of 70 overall Madden no names the Giants are trotting out can outscore the likes of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Aaron Jones.
My Bets
- Minnesota Vikings H2H @ $1.82
- Justin Jefferson Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.30
- Justin Jefferson Over 82.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.88
- Multi $5.20
It’s a cross-state rivalry game in Week 1 as two of the Floridian sides will do battle.
While the bookies are heavily favouring Tua and the Dolphins, I think there is some merit in the Jaguars.
It’s no secret that Trevor and the Jags have not lived up to expectations since he was drafted first overall in 2021 however I’m a big fan of their rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr and the lack of defence that Miami played last season leads me to believe that this game should be a shootout.
While you can’t put too much into preseason, the Jaguars starters looked incredibly efficient and with Lawrence, Etienne, Kirk, Engram and now Thomas Jr.
I think the Jags have enough to upset the many Ferraris that the Dolphins have.
My Bets
- Jacksonville Jaguars H2H @ $2.45
- Trevor Lawrence 275+ Passing Yards @ $2.60
- Travis Etienne Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $1.85
- Multi @ $7.51
Two familiar faces at QB in different coloured jerseys in this one.
Kirk Cousins and the Falcons will do battle with Russel Wilson and the Steelers in the early time slot on Monday morning.
While I am intrigued by the Falcons this season, I’m not complaining they’ve hidden this game.
There are a lot of uncertainties on both sides of the ball in this one and I’d like to see how these new offense play before we get too fruity in the betting markets.
I do however believe the Falcons will lean heavily on Bijan especially early in the season while Cousins brushes the cobwebs off post achilles tear.
My Bets
- Atlanta Falcons -3 @ $1.90
- Bijan Robinson Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $1.94
- Bijan Robinson 90+ Rushing Yards @ $4.20
- Multi $8.30
Caleb Williams makes his long awaited debut this week and the bookies are tipping a comfortable win for the rookie QB here.
Chi Town are $1.46 favourites against the $2.70 Tennessee Titans and I tend to agree with the bookies here.
Will Levis and the Titans looked good in stretches last year however the departure of Derrick Henry will more than likely be felt here.
Bears to cover the 4 point line is where I’ll start here and I’m willing to have a play on Caleb despite us having no data on him at the NFL level.
250+ passing yards and 2+ passing TDs is where we will start.
I really want to watch this Bears team and understand the target share Allen, Moore, Odunze and Kmet will have before we start backing Bears receivers.
My Bets
- Chicago Bears -4 @ $1.90
- Caleb Williams 250+ Passing Yards @ $1.96
- Caleb Williams 2+ Touchdown Passes @ $1.90
- Multi $3.72
Buffalo are the short priced favourites against Arizona but is this new look offense actually any good?
The Bills have lost a lot of pass catching talent in the offseason, with the departure of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, all eyes will be on Dalton Kincaid, James Cook and rookie Keon Coleman here in week 1.
The Cardinals should be much improved this season, Kyler Murray is another year separated from his ACL tear and they drafted one of the most exciting WR prospects we’ve seen in quite some time.
Kyler now has a genuine weapon and we could see a very competitive Cards team this year.
The line is set at 6.5 points and I actually think Arizona cover here.
I just don’t understand how Buffalo are planning to run their offense this year and I think the Cards could at the very least keep this close.
My Bets
- Arizona Cardinals +6.5 @ $1.90
- James Conner Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.45
- Marvin Harrison 60+ Receiving Yards @ $1.70
- Multi $7.71
Joey B and the Bengals will host the Patriots for their season opener and from a punting stand point, this is the most one sided game of the week.
Cincy are heavy favourites and while I do believe they win, it’s yet to be seen if superstar WR Ja’Marr Chase is going to play. The man is holding out for a new contract and fingers crossed it’s resolved soon.
I’m looking towards Tee Higgins in this game.
Burrow and Higgins have had a full pre season together with Ja’Marr not practicing and I think that even if Ja’Marr does play, he might be a bit rusty in his first hitout.
My Bets
- Cincinnati Bengals 14+ @ $2.55
- Joe Burrow 300+ Passing Yards @ $3.25
- Tee Higgins 60+ Receiving Yards @ $1.46
- Tee Higgins Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.45
- Multi @ $15.43
Look, it’s a divisional rivalry game but I can’t imagine it will be any good.
I don’t have many expectations for either of these sides this season but you’d imagine that the Chargers get up over this Raiders side right?
LA are $1.60 favourites and that’s where I’m leaning, I’m fascinated to watch this game to not only see the Chargers’ split between pass and run plays but also who receives the bulk of Justin Herbert’s pass volume.
Chargers should cover the line in this one and with Herbert’s yardage line almost being the lowest of his career, I think I’m comfortable taking the overs
My Bets
- Los Angeles Chargers -3 @ $1.87
- Justin Herbert Over 225.5 Passing Yards
- Multi $2.91
Not a game 12 months ago I would be interested in watching but there’s a chance that the Commies could finally be an interesting team to watch.
Rookie QB Jayden Daniels makes his debut against Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers, who were one of the surprise teams last season as they began the post Tom Brady era.
Tampa come into this one has short favourites and I’m with them to win but I’m more willing to take a few Commanders players in the betting this season.
Baker and Mike Evans are comfortable picks for me in this game.
Evans is still him and when you combine that with Chris Godwin and rookie Jalen McMillan one of the biggest rookie risers this preseason, I think we should see some big pass yards for Baker this year.
I’m really excited to see if Daniels can truly unlock Terry McLaurin this season but I might wait a few weeks to see how the Heisman winner settles in to the league.
My Bets
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 @ $1.87
- Baker Mayfield Over 250.5 Passing Yards @ $1.88
- Mike Evans Over 70.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.88
- Multi $4.16
Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks will host the Broncos in Week 1 and Denver are another team I’m not holding much hope for this season.
Bo Nix looked great in pre season and will debut as the Broncs starter here but will more than likely struggle against the Seattle secondary.
Seattle are $1.36 favourites for a reason and we could very easily see a run heavy second half from Seattle as they try to wrap this up quickly and get out of there.
I’m sticking to that game script and I’m taking Kenneth Walker for a big day. Walker averaged 60.5 rush yards per game last season but I think he may be one of the yardage leaders in the league heading into week 2 this year.
My Bets
- Seattle Seahawks 14+ @ $3.15
- Kenneth Walker 80+ Rushing Yards
- Kenneth Walker Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $1.94
- Multi $8.17
I do not know how but the Dallas Cowboys are $2.15 underdogs against the Browns in the 6:30 game this week.
The Cowboys were massive last year and while the Browns did play well down the stretch last year. I do not believe they can beat the Cowboys here.
Dak and CeeDee Lamb are going to cook here and I reckon the bookies have this one wrong.
I’m really intrigued to see the snapshare in the Dallas RB room, Ezekiel Elliot is back for them but I think Rico Dowdle will be the RB to punt on in weeks to come.
My Bets
- Dallas Cowboys H2H @ $2.15
- Dak Prescott 275+ Passing Yards @ $2.40
- CeeDee Lamb Over 83.5 Passing Yards @ $1.88
- Multi $5.29
Get used to Detroit in primetime, the Lions are so hot right now.
Jared Goff and Detroit will host the Rams in the first SNF game of the year and I can’t see anything but Detroit 14+ here.
Los Angeles look like an absolute mess to me.
Sure Puka and Kupp are fantasy football darlings but I don’t believe the Rams will be competitive and they’re up against the team I’ve backed to win the Super Bowl in Week 1.
Amon-Ra St Brown averaged 94.68 yards per game last year and after watching receiver, I truly believe he could be even better this season.
I’m taking Detroit in a big way here.
My Bets
- Detroit Lions 14+ @ $3.80
- Amon-Ra St Brown Over 83.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.88
- Amon-Ra St Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $1.94
- Multi $8.77
The Jets on MNF in Week 1, what could possibly go wrong?
This is almost the exact same scenario NY were in last year when fresh signing Aaron Rodgers blew his achilles out just four snaps into the season but fingers crossed that does not happen again.
The 49ers are short favourites here which I understand, they were agonisingly close to winning the Super Bowl last year and we’re yet to see how the Jets play with Rodgers.
There is offensive talent all across the park here and I’m not really sure you can go wrong with players like McCaffrey, Deebo, Aiyuk, Kittle, Hall or Garrett Wilson but for me – I think this will be a Brandon Aiyuk game.
Aiyuk has been all over the headlines this preseason demanding more money and I think he goes out and repays San Fran in a big way here.
His line is only 54.5. I’m taking that every day.
My Bets
- San Francisco 49ers -4 @ $1.90
- Brandon Aiyuk Over 54.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.88
- Brandon Aiyuk Anytime Touchdown @ $2.45
- Multi $5.58
Making it’s return for another season is the fan favourite Fogs’ Fantasy Team multi.
For those of you that aren’t in the know.
Each week I study both the markets and the fantasy football matchups and put together a multi with players that I think are going to over perform.
We did relatively well last year and I’m bringing it back!
For week 1, my fantasy team is
- Quarterback: Josh Allen 250+ Passing Yards vs the Arizona Cardinals ($1.92)
- Runningback: Travis Etienne 60+ Rushing Yards vs Miami Dolphins ($1.94)
- Runningback: Kenneth Walker 60+ Rushing Yards vs Denver Broncos ($1.57)
- Wide Receiver: Mike Evans 60+ Receiving Yards vs Washinton Commanders ($1.46)
- Wide Receiver: Justin Jefferson 60+ Receiving Yards vs New York Giants ($1.24)
- Multi: $10.58