Who Should Make The Finals Based on Justice

Who Should Make The Finals Based on Justice

GuyWhoLikesSport

There’s no crying in baseball and there’s no justice in football, we all know that.

But heading into the final week of what has been one of the most even AFL seasons I can ever remember, there are nine teams trying to squeeze into eight spots.

The top five – Sydney, Port Adelaide, GWS, Geelong, and Brisbane – are all going to make it in some order so they aren’t interesting to talk about this week.

More interesting battle is between the teams sitting six through nine – the Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Carlton and Fremantle.

Both Hawthorn and the Bulldogs could either finish in the top-4 or out of the eight entirely, Carlton and Fremantle are currently separated by two points in Carlton’s favour and three percentage points in Fremantle’s favour.

It could not be tighter.

Mathematically the Pies could still make it but given percentage I have a better chance of marrying Sydney Sweeney.

Max Laughton of Fox Footy does a great job analysing the data in this column to outline what needs to happen for each team to make it so that’s not what I’m doing here. I’m going to rank each of the four teams playing for those last three spots based on who deserves to make it.

What are the criteria?

I was thinking about this, and I came up with this:
• Game style,
• Recent form, and
• Chance to actually win the whole thing.

Based on that, this is how I rank the four teams vying for those last three spots.

1. Hawthorn

It is not outrageous to say that Hawthorn is currently playing the best footy in the AFL. They have won four out of their last five games. In the wins, their smallest margin of victory was 63 points.

Their only loss came against the also scalding hot GWS by two points, and it only happened because GWS seem to be the charcoal and orange embodiment of Tim Tebow circa 2011.

In terms of game style, there are few teams more visually compelling than Hawthorn.

Their kicking game is elite and expansive. They’re tough. They’re smart.

This is a team that knows they don’t have an elite key forward (yet – Calsher Dear looks like he’s going be something special), so they have a mosquito fleet with Nick Watson, Jack Ginnivan, Dylan Moore, Blake Hardwick and they play to those strengths.

The mosquito fleet has them top of the pops in scores from both turnover and scores from the forward half, while the kicking game has them third in scores from the back half.

Happy Gilmore putts like Tiger Woods.

If Will Day is hurt and misses the finals that’s a possible disaster, but we don’t know enough yet to count Hawthorn out.

Game style? Tick. Recent form? Smouldering. Chance to win the whole damn thing? Real.

2. Western Bulldogs

If Hawthorn is the class of this group of teams, then the Bulldogs are a clear number two.

If GWS has the best forward line in the AFL, the Bulldogs are second best.

Every week one of Aaron Naughton, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, or Sam Darcy can take a game and rip it to shreds.

And they’re ably supported by a collection of gun smalls in the form of Rhylee West and Cody Weightman.

Take that forward line, and add to it the fact that Marcus Bontempelli and Adam Treloar are having career best years, Ed Richards has emerged, Tom Liberatore is still a gun, and Tim English is playing well and you have a genuine bottom half of the eight contender.

The issue has always been the back line, but since Rory Lobb has moved back there this has been the third best scoring defence in the AFL.

Any chance there’s a method to Bevo’s madness, Kane?

Prior to the loss to Adelaide, the Bulldogs won four straight all against finals contenders (at the time) including wins against Sydney and Geelong.

They did it on the back of a dominant forward half and contested ball game while being the second most efficient team at turning inside 50s into shots.

The numbers also ADORE the Bulldogs.

They have a compelling game style that stacks up, great talent, hot recent form with one minor blip, and a real chance that to win from the bottom half of the eight.

If justice has anything to do with anything the Bulldogs and Hawthorn will make it.

3. Fremantle

Obviously, the top two on this list are the two best teams on the list and two of the form teams in the competition.

But Freo, to me, is clearly third.

Even though they’ve lost their last three, they were by a combined 21 points.

The loss to Essendon was catastrophic when they let Zach Merrett waltz out the front of a centre bounce to win the game (though we all appreciate them for getting Essendon fans’ hopes up so they could be disappointed again), but the other two were defensible.

The loss to Geelong at home shouldn’t have happened but sometimes you get Chris Scotted, while the loss to GWS was not a bad loss given how GWS is going.

I think Fremantle is good. I just do.

Despite losing their last three they play attractive footy rebounding from defence, sitting second in handball receives and second in scores from the back half. Given their midfield, it’s also not surprising that they’re second in scores from stoppage.

They’re a bit like Dakota Johnson, I’m constantly asking, “why aren’t you better?”

While their control game has dropped off significantly and probably been the biggest reason for their drop in form as they sit 14th in mark differential over the last five games, this is still an attractive team with a top-2 midfield and a good forward line.

If justice has anything to do with it, Fremantle will beat Port Adelaide in Perth and make it. To me, Freo has Colin Robinson energy.

They won’t win it all, but they’ll suck the fight out of whoever they play first.

4. Carlton

The only reason I framed the column like I did was so I could put Carlton bottom.

I know they’ll probably make it.

I know.

Carlton gets to play West Coast and St Kilda for the right to play finals while an objectively better team in Fremantle has had to close the season with GWS and Port Adelaide.

Given Carlton’s draw, if they didn’t make it there’s no telling the scale of the disaster even with their injury list. (By the way, remember the fanfare when their fitness boss Andrew Russell showed up? He was an “elite operator”. Now he’s the devil? God I hate Carlton.)

What a disgrace.

Watching Carlton makes me want to gouge my eyes out. No team does less with more than the Blues. They’re the Chet Hanks of football.

They have wasted so much opportunity it would be offensive if it wasn’t so embarrassing (and funny).

They’re going to make it but they wouldn’t if justice played any part in the world.

Go Saints.

 

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