Midseason Premiership Metric Superlatives

Midseason Premiership Metric Superlatives

GuyWhoLikesSport

We’re now at the midway point of the season and it seems to me that 13 teams realistically can give themselves at least half a chance of winning the whole thing, or at least being a pain in the ass come finals.

Andrew Whelan (the single best follow on footy Twitter with the single best stats website) does a version of Champion Data’s Premiership Standards for those of us who want to watch and talk about football through a prism that goes beyond talking exclusively about Chad Warner’s contract.

The premiership metrics are a group of metrics where at least 10 of the last 12 premiers have featured in the top six of each of these numbers.

The last 12 premiers have ranked in the top six in at least 75% of the metrics, and only one (Collingwood in 2023) has ranked in the bottom six of any of them.

All of you Will Huntings out there will be quick to let me know that correlation doesn’t equal causation.

Good Will Hunting - Learn from the Masters (#1)

I know.

I too finished year 9.

These numbers are just meant to be an interesting snapshot of who is good at the most important stuff halfway through the season.

Because this column threatens to be a very dry collection of numbers, I thought I’d go through the metrics using superlatives.

Most likely to win the premiership – Sydney

No prizes for guessing this one.

Sydney are number one in the AFL for total points scored and fewest points conceded, not much more to say.

I wrote about Sydney earlier this week and I have very little to add to that column.

My only addition is that, actually, James Rowbottom is the Marcellus Wallace of the Swans.

He doesn’t get a lot of plaudits, but his work as the best defensive/tackling midfielder in footy allows the more expansive players like Gulden, Warner and Heeney the freedom to do what they want.

In the same way, Marcellus Wallace isn’t in a lot of Pulp Fiction, but he does facilitate virtually every conflict in Pulp Fiction, and he’s the one that calls the Wolf.

Most likely to accidentally win the premiership – Western Bulldogs

Claudio Ranieri, the ex-soccer coach, was commonly known as The Tinkerman during his days at Chelsea.

He was like Mr Bean.

If something was working perfectly, he’d still try and fix it either with another tactical change or squad rotation.

Luke Beveredge is on his way to the same nickname, but, like Ranieri at Leicester he has tinkered his way to a good side this season.

The metrics say the Bulldogs are the equal second-best team in footy, largely on the basis of strong attacking numbers and good differentials.

His most impactful changes have been the season-long move of Aaron Naughton to a higher half-forward role.

Which has allowed both Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Sam Darcy to play closer to goal and with a bit more space, and the addition of Ed Richards to the midfield.

Richards around the ball has added real juice to what was a one-paced midfield prior to his injection and has made them a far better side.

I’m workshopping a take that speed is the most important aspect of modern football as the game has opened up, and the Richards’ move lends credence to that.

The question will be whether each of Tom Liberatore and Jack Macrae can play in the same side, given their skillset overlap as Jack Macrae’s mobility has gone down.

You’ll note that the two players I named were just injured, but if they can get back quickly these numbers say the Bulldogs are a chance

Most likely to disappoint their fans – Essendon

I like Essendon. I like watching them.

I enjoy Kyle Langford’s brand of forward craft and Sam Durham’s everything.

The numbers say they are not serious people.

They are 13th, ahead of only Hawthorn, St Kilda, West Coast, Richmond and North Melbourne.

The only numbers they’re top six in are opposition inside 50s, turnover differential and opposition clangers.

Their pressure/defence numbers are good but not much else is.

This is not a prototypical 8-2-1 team that’s sitting second on the ladder, and it shows in their percentage of 104.4%, which is also 13th.

This is a “we’re ahead of schedule season” and those seasons also often dovetail into “we’re going to lose early in the finals” seasons.

Most likely to make you fall asleep at a party – Fremantle

The numbers have Fremantle fourth.

Whatever?

They’re like Michael Keaton.

You know they’re good (not great), and they’ll never set your hair on fire with their charisma like Jon Bernthal or Phillip Seymour Hoffman might.

They’re top three in five of the six most defensive metrics and nothing else.

They have a dominant midfield, but those numbers aren’t relevant to this particular exercise.

This is a boring football team that is good at the boring stuff, and I just don’t think their lack of dynamism can win premierships.

You need some flare and dash to win in the AFL now and Fremantle don’t have it.

This number is only as good at it is because they’re dominant at one thing.

Most even competition – The AFL

It would have been funny if I had put Suncorp Super Netball but no, the AFL gets this one.

The top 13 is amazingly even this season.

There’s one standout team in Sydney, who have a mean ranking of 3.2 across all of the premiership metrics, which would make them the fifth best premier since 2012.

Other than the Swans, no other team is better than 6.2, but the 12 other teams are between 6.2 and 9.7.

Compare that to last year where the numbers said that Melbourne were the best with a mean ranking of 2.6, but then there were teams in the fours and fives and 11 teams were over a mean ranking of 9.

The have nots are about as bad as they were last year, with the Tigers adding themselves to the dregs of the league.

But the haves are better and there are more of them.

 

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