Do the Dees actually NEED to win the premiership?

Do the Dees actually NEED to win the premiership?

GuyWhoLikesSport

In a world full of cynical engagement farming, one of the surest ways to get clicks is to ask whether a big AFL club needs to win a premiership.

Most of the time, obviously they don’t. There are 18 teams in the competition and they’re hard to win. It would be like saying that Simon Goodwin needs to be sober to keep his job.

False.

HAVING SAID THAT…does Melbourne need to win in 2024?

I hate to sound all Kane Cornes (or for your more authentic touch – Stephen A. Smith), but I say yes

I take this position despite a tumultuous offseason where one player was outed as the AFL’s Tony Montana, a superstar has gone through serious and vague personal troubles, and another was forced to retire after an act that the entire Collingwood football club vociferously celebrated.

Anyway, at thank goodness their culture is the best the CEO has ever seen.

He went straight from working at Enron to the Dees.

I also take this position despite a 1-1 start where one contender beat them and beat the competition’s biggest enigma.

Why do they need to win it all this year?

They are one of the three best lists in footy.

If you count Clayton Oliver as the footballer and not the fixture at Revolver, they have six elite players and a collection of other guns even after Brayshaw’s retirement.

But the list has two big problems.

The first is that they don’t have any key forwards.

Pickett is a star but doesn’t provide any structure forward of the ball that corresponds with what May and Lever do on the other end.

Lack of plan and structure is how Melbourne can rank first in the AFL in inside 50s in 2023 by two per game, finish fourth in shots on goal, and eighth in scoring.

Indeed, since 2021 Melbourne has played the same game every week. They dominate defensively and through the middle, bomb it deep to nobody, and pray someone does something. In that same period, the Dees’ have never been worse than third for inside 50s.

This year they have finally looked to change their game slightly when they have the ball in hand.

Against the Bulldogs especially they looked to the corridor constantly and tried to get a run-and-carry game going. They decided that without a bailout option, they needed to get some speed on the game to make life easier for their collection of mid-sized, mid-talent forwards by entering more quickly.

They regularly took the game on in a way that they didn’t have the appetite for last season and had varying degrees of success. They have looked generally unconfident doing it, like the guy who is trying to reinvent himself from high school going into uni.

He has some successes socially, like when he kissed the 8.5 when he is a 6. But some failures, like when he tried to bring fedoras back.

They were most successful when they got the ball in Jack Billings’ hands heading inside 50. I counted at least 4 times when they looked to get the ball to Billings at around the 70m mark and had him find a chest. He was successful 3 of the 4 times he delivered the ball inside 50.

 

He was a smart addition to the list.

In general, against the Bulldogs, they were successful going inside 50 getting a score from about 53% of their entries. That’s about 10% better than they were last year. However, against Sydney they went at just 42% efficiency. It remains to be seen if the spike against the Bulldogs says more about the Demons or about the Bulldogs.

Even still, the process looked better instead of constant blazing away.

Problem number 2 is that the list is ageing.

All the elite players, other than Pickett, are between 26 and 32 years old.

It’s time to win it. If it’s not this year, when is it going to be? Especially with the natural slippage from the guys at the top of that age range.

Gawn and May especially are two linchpin players who are closer to the end than the beginning.

Gawn was exceptional against the Bulldogs but demolished against Sydney. Their whole game hinges on being successful out of the middle, even with the dash they’re trying on.

If he can’t provide silver service to his midfielders, that’s an issue.

But he’s 32. You can’t realistically expect him to dominate every week. The issue with Melbourne is the same issue that likely Melbourne supporter Rupert Murdoch has. They’ve abandoned every succession plan they’ve put together.

Luke Jackson wanted to go home, and they acquiesced.

Then they brought in Grundy to replace Jackson and that was unquestionably a disaster. But this year, they’ve done the Michael Corleone and done nothing.

May is the other potential issue. At 32 he’s still a good player, but he loses more contests than he did even two years ago. If teams can get him on the move against more mobile forwards, his strength won’t save him.

 

What about solutions?

Christopher Moltisanti sagely advised us all that there’s no chemical solution to a spiritual problem.

While they can’t solve problem 2 during the season, problem 1 could be solved but for some spiritual problems.

The spiritual issue is that the Demons are known for two things, above all else:

1. Their fans having a little lodge near Mt Buller; and
2. Destroying good key forward prospects.

They did it with Jack Watts, then with Jesse Hogan. Now they seem to be doing it with Jacob van Rooyen.

Hogan and Watts were defeated largely by situational factors, but van Rooyen’s development might be similarly stunted.

They are currently having him pinch hit as a ruckman because of their lack of succession planning at that position. He’s clearly a talented forward, but he needs time to develop. He’s only played 22 games in his career, including the game against the Bulldogs.

Let him develop his craft as a forward instead of throwing him around, but they haven’t given themselves the option.

I’m not saying that Melbourne can’t win the flag this year.

As I said, this is an excellent list.

I’m saying that even with that imperfect list, they have to win this year because this is their last best chance.

Like Elvis said, it’s now or never.