It all comes down to this.
Las Vegas will host Super Bowl LVIII in just a few days time, hopefully they don’t destroy the turf before my Brisbane Broncos get on it.
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have made their fourth Super Bowl in just six season and are staring down the barrel of becoming the next big footballing dynasty.
The Chiefs finished the regular season as the winner of the AFC West but did it by going 11-6 which is the teams worst record since Mahomes was named the starter.
Kansas City has proven that doesn’t really matter, they just needed to get their foot in the door and they would be able to do their thing like they have for the last five years and that’s clearly worked out for them as we are talking about them in another Super Bowl preview.
On the other side of the field is the team that the Chiefs came back and beat in 2020, the San Francisco 49ers.
Lead by Mr Irrelevant (The nickname given to a player taken with the last pick of the draft), Quarterback Brock Purdy and his supporting cast of superstar footballers are ready to give the Chiefs hell.
San Francisco have been Super Bowl favourites for majority of the season this year. They finished 12-5 on the year and have assembled one of the best rosters in the league, The 49ers boast nine pro bowlers this yeah which is the most from anyone team.
Just like last year, a new team as emerged to try and take down the Chiefs, they’ve been the favourites for majority of the season and the bookies have them listed as the favourites as well. Will the 49ers knock the Chiefs off? Or is Playoff Patty and the Chiefs Dynasty simply too good?
All will be revealed on Monday the 12th.
As always, I’ve run my eyes over the market and had a crack at finding some winners and chasing a bit of value. Will every single one of these get up? Certainly not but hopefully my reasoning and logic can steer us into a few winning betslips on the day.
Here is my preview of Super Bowl 58!
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In the last five Super Bowls, a player from the favourite team has been the first touchdown scorer lets take a look back at the previous first TD scorers.
2022: Jalen Hurts (Rush TD, Eagles)
2021: Odell Beckham (Rec TD, Rams)
2020: Rob Gronkowski (Rec TD, Bucs)
2019: Patrick Mahomes (Rush TD, Chiefs)
2018: Sony Michel (Rush TD, Patriots)
Christian McCaffrey has been massive for the 49ers this year he has 14 touchdowns in 16 games this year but CMC has only been the 1st Touchdown scorer in four of the 49ers games this season.
CMC is the favourite in this market at $4.75 and is definitely worth a flirt on. I think there is enough value in this market to have a couple of plays however. Another name that stood out in the game logs when I was looking at 1st Touchdown Scorers in 49ers games was Brandon Aiyuk, Aiyuk was 1st TD scorer in 3 games this year and is $10 in the market.
If you’re looking for a Chiefs play on the 1st TD scorer, I would head in to this one with a bit of caution. Isiah Pacheco was the 1st TD scorer in four of the Chiefs games this season and Rashee Rice was the guy in three of them. In the rest of Chiefs games, it was someone different every time. Here’s a couple names of Chiefs 1st TD scorers this year and their price to do it again in the Super Bowl: Justin Watson ($34), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($31), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($31).
Even Travis Kelce was only 1st TD Scorer once this year and that was last week against the Ravens. If you like the Chiefs I would be having a play on Isiah Pacheco at $5.75 and Rashee Rice at @ $11.
My Picks
- Christian McCaffrey @ $4.75
- Brandon Aiyuk @ $10
- Isiah Pacheco @ $5.75
- Rashee Rice @ $11
Brock Purdy Under 245.5 Passing Yards @ $1.88 – The Chiefs defence has been massive this year and on average allow 197.18 pass yards per game.
Christian McCaffrey Over 92.5 Rushing Yards @ $1.88 – CMC finished with 90 rushing yards flat against the Lions but is averaging 94 rush yards per game in the post season this year. Given that he is their best player and it’s the most important game of the year. I see McCaffrey getting ample opportunity to produce and see him doing just that.
Patrick Mahomes Under 262.5 Passing Yards – Mahomes in the playoffs this season hasn’t needed to put up massive numbers. He’s averaged 239.9 passing yards per playoff game this year and the 49ers have allowed just 229 passing yards per game this year. I don’t see Mahomes putting up massive numbers here.
Rashee Rice Over 68.5 Receiving Yards @ $1.88 – Rookie Wider Receiver Rashee Rice is averaging 58.6 receiving yards this year and 74.3 receiving yards per game in the playoffs. He has emerged as Mahomes’ go to target when he needs a play this year and I think he’ll have a huge game in the Super Bowl.
I obviously like the players I’ve had a crack on for 1st TD scorer. (CMC $1.48 ATD, Pacheco $1.65 ATD, Aiyuk $2.35 ATD, Rice $2.45 ATD)
But I think this year we get a little fruity with our ATD picks and try to find some outliers.
Two names that stand out to me on the Chiefs side of the ball is Noah Gray and Justin Watson. Two incredibly reliable targets for Pat Mahomes that often get a lot of love from Pat during the middle of the drive.
There’s five touchdowns between them on the year as well as 28 and 27 receptions respectively.
These two receivers are nowhere near my best picks for this game but we often see in the Super Bowl unlikely players making huge plays for their team. I think a play on Justin Watson @ $6.25 and Noah Gray $10.50 is fun, flirty and frisky.
My Picks
- Christian McCaffrey @ $1.48
- Isiah Pacheco @ $1.65
- Brandon Aiyuk @ $2.35
- Rashee Rice @ $2.45
- Justin Watson @ $6.25
- Noah Gray @ $10.50
It’s very rare for this award to go to anyone that isn’t a QB.
The market kind of says that as well. Mahomes is the favourite at $2.25 and Purdy is not far behind him at $3.
I’d be picking the team you want to win and taking their QB but if you wanted a riskier play. Christian McCaffrey at $5.25 could be the move.
Purdy has a lot of haters and CMC obviously carries a massive workload in this offense. Theres every chance McCaffrey goes for 150 yards an 3 TDs in this game. A performance like that should see him win the SB MVP but 90 yards and a score probably won’t cut it.
My Picks
- Patrick Mahomes $2.25
- Brock Purdy @ $3
I’m quite fortunate to have backed the 49ers to win the Super Bowl halfway through the season at $4.50.
They have been incredible this year and are $1.80 favourites for a reason, a win to San Fran would not shock many people at all.
BUT
I am backing the Chiefs to win Super Bowl LVIII this year and I think $2.05 is a great price for them. Kansas City have proven time and time again just how unstoppable they are in the playoffs. While it was technically was their worst season with Mahomes under centre. The Chiefs have been clinical in the playoffs so far.
Their defense shut down Lamar Jackson this week and I think they have what it takes to really do in the 49ers.
My Picks
- Chiefs H2H @ $2.05
- Chiefs 1-13 @ $2.95