Oh yeah, the NFL is officially back boys!
By the time the Chiefs and Lions kickoff on Friday it will be 208 days since Super Bowl LVII which will draw the longest offseason in world sport (keep that in your back pocket pub trivia fans) to a close.
We are set for another incredible season of American Football this year.
Veteran QBs Derrick Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, Aaron Rodgers and Baker Mayfield are all under centre for new teams this season while the top three rookie Quarterbacks who were taken inside the first four picks of the draft have all been named Week 1 starters.
Keep your eyes out for Bryce Young at the Panthers, CJ Stroud with the Texans and Anthony Richardson for the Colts.
Preseason is over – the fantasy drafts are done. It’s time to talk some football. We had a pretty bloody good season last year and I’m keen to have another crack once again!
Each week of the season I’ll be looking at every game and giving my favourite results and players markets and you’re more than welcome to follow along on the blog or jump into the NFL Open Group on the Neds App where we have over 1000 like minded NFL punters chatting along during each game!
Enough waffling on, here is my preview of Week 1 of the NFL season.
Getting us started on Friday morning (AEST) is the Super Bowl champion the Chiefs taken on a Detroit side that people (not myself) have tipped to potentially win the NFC North this season.
I’d like to let you know punters that I am writing this on Wednesday morning fresh off the news that the Chiefs’ top pass catcher Travis Kelce has hyper extended his knee at training and is doubtful to play on Friday.
The Chiefs are still $1.44 favourites compared to the Lions $2.80 but losing arguably the greatest Tight End of all time would be a big blow for the Chiefs who don’t have a clear WR1.
It’s definitely a situation worth monitoring and that one that honestly throws me off having a crack on a result market.
The Lions could absolutley stick it to the Chiefs here. Jared Goff has some new weapons in Jahmyr Gibbs & Sam LaPorta, throw in Amon-Ra St Brown and that is an electric offense.
They’re no scrubs on the defensive side of the ball either. I expect second year DE Aidan Hutchinson to elevate his game this season.
The last three kickoff games have averaged 51.5 points, without Kelce for the Chiefs and the points line being set at 53 – the unders is the only result market that I am drawn to.
If you followed last year however, you know I love a players market.
I’ll be taking the overs on both Isiah Pacheco and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Pacheco averaged 48 Yards per game last year, he’s now the clear RB1 in KC and without Kelce on the field, I see Pacheco being busy in this game.
The Lions also took Gibbs with the 12th overall pick in this years draft which is pretty bloody high for a RB in 2023 and 40.5 yards looks crazy low for him, I like the overs all day.
Touchdown scorers I’m happy to wait and see what the Chiefs look like this year before backing anyone to score.
It’s hard to say who Mahomes will target this season so I’m personally staying away in the first game of the season BUUUUUT I am employed to give you tips and for the above reason, I think Pacheco is the best bet to cross the scoring plane.
SGM $8.24
- Under 53 Points @ $1.90
- Jahmyr Gibbs Over 40.5 Rush Yards @ $1.88
- Isiah Pacheco Over 52.5 Rush Yards @ $1.88
Anytime Touchdown Tip
- Isiah Pacheco Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.10
I wouldn’t necessarily say I’m on the Ravens’ bandwagon this year but I’m a big fan of the hiring of Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken.
Everything I’ve seen tells me that the Ravens will play a completely different brand of football this season and the days of 50+ carries are gone.
Baltimore have a very exciting group of pass catchers this year; Mark Andrews, Odell Beckham Jnr, Rashod Bateman and rookie Zay Flowers should all be heavily involved this year and for that reason I backed Lamar to throw 4000+ pass yards this year.
The Texans have added some nice pieces in the off season but I can’t imagine they will put it all together in week 1 against the Ravens.
They are $4.40 to the Ravens $1.20 and I think it might be a rough start for second overall pick CJ Stroud.
The line is set at 10 points but I think this could be a blow out, I’m with the Ravens 14+
My Bets
- Baltimore Ravens 14+ @ $2.30
- Zay Flowers Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $3.05
- Multi: $6.43
Last years NFC North champs take on a Buccaneers team that we are watching slowly implode right before our eyes.
The Vikings open as very short favourites $1.40 over the Bucs at $3 and while I will forever be a defender of Baker Mayfield, the news coming out of Tampa is grim which is quite sad.
I’m quite bullish on Justin Jefferson this year, I’ve backed him for overs on every market offered as well as to win the OPOY award and I think he gets that campaign started strongly against a Bucs team who is a shell of the team that one the Super Bowl not that long ago.
The line is set at six points but I will be backing the Vikings by 14+ here.
My Bets
- Minnesota Vikings 14+ @ $3
- Justin Jefferson Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $1.80
- Multi $4.36
It’s an AFC North clash for the ages in Week 1!
The Browns will host Joe Burrow and the Bengals at FirstEnergy Stadium in a matchup that rarely dissappoints.
The bookies are struggling to split these two sides the Browns are $2.15 to the Bengals $1.70 and I personally believe that is too short for this Cleveland side.
If this is your first time reading an NFL preview of mine, I need to let you know that I am unapologetically biased towards Burrow and the Bengals.
I love Joey B, I love Ja’Marr and will be backing those boys pretty heavily this year.
The market is backing me up in this game, Bengals -2.5 is screaming my name and that’s where I believe my money is for this one.
My Bets
- Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 @ $1.90
- Ja’marr Chase Anytime TD Scorer
The Steelers are up against some pretty stiff competition in Week 1, they’ve drawn the short straw and will face a San Fran outfit that I could very easily see making the Super Bowl this year.
Last year the 49ers defence was SPOOKY. They were the number 1 ranked defence in the league and should be the difference maker in this game.
Don’t get me wrong, I like what the Steelers are building this year BUT this is a team that threw just 12 passing touchdowns last year getting their campaign started against a 49ers team that allowed just 20 passing TDs all year.
The bookies share that sentiment with me, the points line is set at 41 which makes it a nightmare for me to back an over/under.
I’m with the 49ers on the nose here, give me $1.73 H2H and lets keep it simple, give me Christian McCaffrey anytime touchdown scorer.
My Bets
- San Francisco 49ers H2H @ $1.73
- Christian McCaffrey Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.00
- Under 41 Points @ $1.90
- Multi $5.17
The Titans are heading down to NOLA as $2.45 underdogs compared to the Saints who are $1.55 and this is honestly a battle of two teams I don’t expect much of this season.
A lot of pundits are expecting big things from this New Orleans side but I honestly don’t know how excited you can really get excited about the Derrick Carr lead office, especially in the first few weeks where Alvin Kamara is sidelined with suspension.
The Saints are wait-and-see for me this year, I really want Michael Thomas to finally bounce back but there’s every chance this team gets blown up after a few losses.
I’m backing them to win this one purely because I think the Titans could be one of the worst teams in the league this year.
It’s all on King Henry’s shoulders this year and I don’t see the Titans getting it done in Week 1.
My Bets
- New Orleans Saints -3 @ $1.83
- Jamaal Williams Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $1.80
- Multi @ $2.76
They can’t all be bangers in Week 1, Commanders v Cards in my eyes is up there as the dud of the round.
Washington are incredibly short at $1.32 and I think that’s more because of just how much of a joke the Cardinals look so far this season.
I really don’t want to spend much time thinking about this one, Commies to win and give me Brian Robinson, the man that was shot to score a touchdown.
My Bets
- Washington Commanders H2H @ $1.32
- Brian Robinson Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.40
- Multi $2.56
I think I hate the Indianapolis Colts…
Historic player mismanagers, first Andrew Luck and now Jonathan Taylor is the poor bugger getting dragged across the coals by head office.
I really want to see the Jags belt them and at $1.45 favourites, we could be on here.
The Jags really turned it around in a big way last year and with the return of Calvin Ridley from a gambling suspension (stop reading this Calvin, I know you’re in here) I think the Jaguars will be one of the best teams in the league this year.
The Jags 14+ is where my money is at $3.25 and while Ridley will be the guy this year, I’m backing Christian Kirk to score a TD mainly because TLaw has an extra year of chemistry with him.
My Bets
- Jacksonville Jaguars 14+ @ $3.25
- Christian Kirk Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.00
Two teams in my eyes that are being massively undervalued this year.
This is one of the games I’m most looking forward to this week. Desmond Ridder vs Bryce Young, Bijan debuting.
There’s heaps of storylines here that rev my tractor and I think I’ve talked myself into backing the Panthers H2H.
I really like what Bryce Young and HC Frank Reich have got going, the Panthers have the better defence of these two teams and we could see an upset here.
My Bets
- Carolina Panthers H2H @ $2.50
- DJ Chark Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $4.10
- Multi $7.72
Philly will be on a mission to get back to the Super Bowl this year after falling agonisingly short to the Chiefs last year and when I think of this game I think of that scene in Fight Club where Ed Norton’s characters just goes to town on Jared Leto’s face purely because he was the bloke infront of him.
I think the Patriots are the unfortunate side that is getting to cop the full frustration of the Eagles Super Bowl shortcomings and I’m tipping this to be a bloodbath.
Philly are already $1.53 favourites to the Pats’ $2.55 but it’s the 14+ market at $3.70 that I’m having look at.
Jalen Hurts gave both AJ Brown and Devonta Smith 1000 yard season last year and I see him finding them both for big yards once again here.
My Bets
- Philadelphia Eagles 14+ @ $3.70
- AJ Brown Anytime Touchdown @ $2.65
- Multi @ $7.06
We’ve got Herbert, Ekeler, Allen, Williams and Quentin Johnston up against Tua, Achane, Tyreek and Waddle… sign me the heck up (sorry for my profanity).
I have very large expectations for this game, anything less than a 42-35 score line I will consider a failure.
If we’re talking about things that rev my tractor, it’s certainly been the offensive side of the ball for both of these sides and despite the Dolphins being $2.35 underdogs, I can’t split them.
The points line is set at 51 and I will be having a crack at the overs as well as touchdowns to Mike Williams and Tyreek Hill!
My Bets
- Over 51 Points @ $1.87
- Mike Williams Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.65
- Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.00
- Multi $6.28
The post Aaron Rodgers Era is officially upon us and for the first time in a very long time, the Bears are $1.87 favourites over the Packers who are $1.94
That to me is a monster overreaction, the Bears were the worst team in football last year and the Packers have not lost that many supporting staff.
They’ve still got a two headed monster of a backfield in Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon and Christian Watson apparently has incredible chemistry with new QB Jordan Love.
I’m not willing to go anywhere near the Bears, give me the Packers all day.
My Bets
- Green Bay Packers H2H @ $1.94
- Christian Watson Anytime Touchdown @ $2.25
- Multi $3.86
Two teams I got completely wrong last year.
I thought the Seahawks would be garbage, they went on to make the playoffs and I thought the Rams would be in the Super Bowl again, they finished 5-12.
No one at the Rams gives me much inspiration this year outside of Cam Akers and sadly, I don’t think he’s enough to be a difference maker in this one.
Geno had the Seahawks humming last year and with the added weapons of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zach Charbonnet. The Seahawks should improve on their efforts from last season.
I like the Seahawks to cover -5 in this one.
I want nothing to do with this game.
The Broncos made me feel physically ill last year and I’m starting to feel the same way about the Raiders this year.
The signing of Sean Payton instills ~some~ optimism for me about the Broncos in 2023 but it’s very much a don’t count your chickens type meme for me here.
And now I need to pick some markets.
My Bets
- Denver Broncos -3.5 @ $1.90
- Javonte Williams Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $2.25
- Multi $3.59
We’ve got an NFC East blockbuster for the 10:30am slot this Monday!
America’s team will head to New Jersey for the prime time game and it’s hard to see them not leaving with the W.
The Giants have acquired Tight End Darren Waller from the Raiders which I am excited about but I don’t believe it will be enough to overcome the likes of Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Tony Pollard.
Dallas are $1.58 for a reason and I personally believe the Giants last year were a bit of a fluke.
I’m with the Cowboys and a Pollard TD
My Bets
- Dallas Cowboys -3.5 @ $1.98
- Tony Pollard Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ $1.67
- Multi $2.69
Punters all around the world will be relying of the likes of Stefon Diggs and Garrett Wilson to save their first week of fantasy football and we could be in for a treat with a banger of a Tuesday game.
Like a lot of other people, I’m very keen to see what the Jets look like this year and they will have a proper test against Josh Allen and the Bills.
Buffalo opens as $1.68 favourites to the Jets $2.20 and this is probably another game I’m avoiding backing a result.
The points line is set at 46.5 which looks too good not to take on. Aaron Rodgers will boost what is already a red hot Jets offense as will the addition of Dalvin Cook in the backfield.
Give me a Josh Allen rushing TD as well as a Garrett Wilson in this game.
My Bets
- Over 46.5 Points @ $1.90
- Josh Allen Anytime Rushing Touchdown @ $2.65
- Garrett Wilson Anytime Touchdown @ $2.10
- Multi $7.60
Something different I’m going to try this year. If you’ve got this far we could be on.
Every week I’m going to study the matchups and put together my “Fantasy Team” a 5 leg multi with 1 QB, 2 RBs and 2 WRs.
For week 1, my fantasy team is
- Quarterback: Trevor Lawrence Over 258.5 Pass Yards vs the Indianapolis Colts ($1.88)
- Runningback: Bijan Robinson Over 66.5 Rush Yards vs Carolina Panthers ($1.88)
- Runningback: Joe Mixon Over 54.5 Rush Yards vs Cleveland Browns ($1.88)
- Wide Receiver: Chris Olave Over 66.5 Receiving Yards vs Tennessee Titans ($1.88)
- Wide Receiver: Garrett Wilson Over 69.5 Receiving Yards vs Buffalo Bills ($1.88)
- Multi: $23.48