And then there were two.
Can you believe it? We are at the Super Bowl already! 32 have given it their all this year and it’s all down to the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles seemingly came out of nowhere this season… unless you listened to the Neds NFL Punting Podcast of course.
Lead by young QB Jalen Hurts, the Eagles exploded out of the gates and were on an 8 game winning streak.
They finished the regular season 14-3 and have been one of the most exciting teams in the league this year.
Philly will be looking for their first Super Bowl win since 2017 when back up QB Nick Foles lead the Eagles to a huge win over Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.
There were a heap of question marks over the Kansas City Chiefs coming into this season.
How was Mahomes going to go without Tyreek Hill?
There are some good teams coming up in the AFC, can the Chiefs stay dominate against teams like the Bills and the Bengals?
Mahomes proved all the doubters wrong once again and has booked a spot in his 3rd Super Bowl in just five years.
This is going to be a really exciting Super Bowl, both these sides are red hot on both offense and defence.
With out trying to go the early crow, it’s shaping up to be an instant classic!
As always, I’ve run my eyes over the markets reckon I’ve found a bit of value.
Here is my preview of Super Bowl 57!
Check out the nonsense we get up to to on the Neds NFL Punting Podcast too, there is a link to that below!
Deleted:CheChhttps://twitter.com/NedsAus/status/1597835676011352064?s=20&t=Ha9aYYdxebulUHROLkNlhg
In the last five Super Bowls, four of the first TDs have been scored by a player on the favourite team and there is a 3/2 split in receiving and rushing TDs.
2021: Odell Beckham (Rec TD, Rams)
2020: Rob Gronkowski (Rec TD, Buccs)
2019: Patrick Mahomes (Rush TD, Chiefs)
2018: Sony Michel (Rush TD, Patriots)
2017: Alshon Jeffrey (Rec TD, Eagles)
Looking at these names, they all have one thing in common, they were incredibly reliable pieces of their teams offense the entire season and all made big plays when their team needed it.
If I’m picking a reliable player on the favourite team it’s hard to look past AJ Brown, he was 4th in receiving yards this year with 1496 Yds and 3rd in touchdowns with 11 on the year.
Based on all the information given to me, AJ Brown is what my head says to go with.
BUT
My heart says Travis Kelce, the Chiefs aren’t the favourites but he is the most reliable player on the field. I am tipping AJ Brown but I will also be getting on Kelce @ $8.50.
Jalen Hurts Over 248.5 Pass Yards – Hurts has averaged 246.7 YPG this season and the Chiefs Defence has allowed 308.8 YPG. I’ll be taking the overs.
Patrick Mahomes Under 290.5 Pass Yards – Mahomes, who is a very short shout of winning MVP is averaging 308.8 pass yards this season but the Eagles defence has been huge this year.
They have only allowed 256.7 YPG this year and while I think he will have a good game, his yardage line is too high so I’ll be backing the unders.
Miles Sanders Over 58.5 Rush Yards – It’s been a career year for the Eagles RB, 1269 Yards and 11 Touchdowns.
Not bad for a bloke that a lot of people did not really consider as a proper bell cow RB before this season.
Sanders is averaging 74.6 Yards per game this season, in his last 5 games he’s averaged 14.4 carries and 58.2 rush yards per game.
What the Eagles have done really well this year is set the tone with their run game and I like Philly to lean on the run game a lot in this one.
Travis Kelce Over 80.5 Receiving Yards – Kelce has been a monster for the Chiefs this year.
In his last five games he’s averaged 74.0 YPG but I like him to go over 80 due to the injuries in the WR room for KC.
There’s too much uncertainty on how healthy Juju Smith-Schuster, Kadarius Toney and Mecole Hardman are.
I like Mahomes to throw to Kelce a lot in this one and I don’t mind a little sneaky play on Kelce for Super Bowl MVP (More on that later)
Hard to split these two defensive teams, the Chiefs have allowed 9 TDs in their last 5 games (5 Receiving/ 4 Rushing) and the Eagles have allowed 10 (4 Receiving/ 5 Rushing/ 1 D/ST).
As I said above, I’ll be having a play on Travis Kelce and Over 80.5.
If you would prefer the as anytime TD scorers, you can get Travis Kelce for $1.80 and AJ Brown for $2.00.
In the last two weeks the Eagles have only let in 2 TDs and they’ve both been rushing touchdowns, 1 to Christian McCaffrey and one to Matt Breida (of NY Giants fame).
Isaiah Pacheco @ $2.00 looks like a decent shout as well, the Eagles have been good for a rushing td and I can’t imagine Mahomes will be running one in unless we are in the dying moments of the 4th Quarter.
If you’re looking for a second Eagles TD scorer I recommend flipping a coin between Miles Sanders and Jalen Hurts.
They are $1.90 and $1.80 respectively and both have a large amount of rushing TDs this season.
Sanders has 11 and Hurts has a massive 13 TDs this season.
Jalen Hurts and Pat Mahomes are the obvious choices depending on who you like to win, but lets get a bit more exotic.
I’m going to be having a play on Travis Kelce, he is 3rd favourite at $13 and I think he could be the one that takes this game away from the Eagles.
AJ Brown of the Eagles would be my choice of an exotic play on an Eagles player.
You can get him for $21 and will need to have a big game to take the MVP nod away from Hurts.
The Eagles are at the time of writing $1.80 favourites but come on now, but are we really counting out Patrick Mahomes?
A head to head bet on the Chiefs @ $2.02 is what I am leaning towards and honestly, having a play on Chiefs 14+ @ $6.20 is something I’m seriously considering.
Yes the Eagles have been huge this year but the Chiefs are so professional.
I can see a world where the Eagles forget to show up and get steamrolled by a Chiefs team that have been saving their receipts all year.
Am I crazy? Well yes but am I crazy about a play on Chiefs 14+ I guess we’ll have to wait and see.