Super Bowl LVI kicks off on Monday, February 14 in Los Angeles (AEDT) between the hometown Rams and the Cincinnati Bengals.
For the first time in eight years, the Super Bowl won’t feature a Manning, a Brady, or a Mahomes, leaving NFL fans feeling a renewed sense of excitement with the promise of “something different” guaranteed.
For the Rams, this is a chance to right their wrongs after barely showing up against the Patriots three years ago in Super Bowl LIII, while the Bengals are simply hoping to win their first ring in what is also their first trip to the big dance since 1988.
Who will be left with holding Lombardi?
Our best bets for all the key markets can be found in our Super Bowl LVI Preview right here!
The Bengals are the latest example of how important a great quarterback is to a team’s chances at success.
Two years ago, Cincinnati chose to draft Joe Burrow No. 1 overall instead of an offensive lineman, a slightly controversial decision coming off a 2-14 season.
In just two years, the former Heisman winner and College Football National Champion has turned the Bengals’ franchise around, leading them to an AFC North title in just his second season, and most importantly, their first Super Bowl berth in 33 years.
The poise and patience Burrow has shown through college and the NFL has been amazing to watch, and it was again on full display last week when he led his side back from a 21-10 half-time deficit to defeat the heavily favoured Chiefs in overtime.
I’ve said time and time again this season that we’re watching a future Hall of Famer in the making, and if the Bengals are to win their first-ever ring, it’s definitely going to come on the arm of Burrow.
Not to take anything away from Joe Mixon, but the passing game is paramount to Cincinnati’s chances.
The Rams held San Francisco, a team with a strong running game, to just 50 yards last week, meaning there’s a good chance we see Burrow attempt a similar number of throws in the Super Bowl.
Fortunately, the Bengals are set up to air it out where’ve and whenever the situation calls.
Rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase was instrumental in last week’s win over the Chiefs, while Mr. Underrated himself, Tee Higgins, continues to fly under the radar and pose problems deep downfield.
The Bengals would love to have tight end C.J. Uzomah fit for this game after spraining his MCL in the AFC Championship, but there’s still enough depth on the roster with Chase, Higgins, and Tyler Boyd to choose from.
Meanwhile, on defence, Lou Anarumo’s unit continues to be underestimated by opponents.
The pass rush was enormous last week in the late stages against the Chiefs, while the Bengals have been one of the toughest teams to covert against on third down all season.
Overall, when you step back and look at this team on paper, there’s no question they are built to win a Lombardi Trophy now, and for several years to come.
How this young squad handles the moment of the Super Bowl, let alone another tough “road” environment is the question, but based on everything we’ve seen so far, the current odds about Cincinnati ($2.60/+4.5) might be a touch over.
The Rams are back on the Super Bowl stage for the second time under Sean McVay, and this time, they’ll be hoping they score more than three points.
The journey up until this point has been a wild one to say the least.
After trading away Jared Goff to Detroit in exchange for Matthew Stafford, the Rams opened the season 7-1 before things got a little hairy towards the midway point.
Suddenly, LA’s defence was giving up a stack of points to teams like Green Bay and Jacksonville, setting up a decisive Week 18 game against the San Francisco 49ers to determine the NFC West.
The Rams would lose that game in overtime and still claim the division, but the result basically put a line through their Super Bowl chances, at least according to experts.
Like we’ve seen all season though, the Rams quickly found their mojo when it mattered most, rolling right through the Cardinals in the Wild Card Game, putting up a big margin on the Bucs (at least until late), and coming up with a clutch interception last week to seal a nail-biting win over the 49ers.
With home-field advantage, the Rams go into the Super Bowl as the rightful favourite, and if Stafford continues to play like he has done right throughout the playoffs, they’ll be tough to beat.
Stafford had some serious turnover concerns during LA’s midseason lull, but he’s rebounded nicely to throw just the one pick during the postseason.
Like the Bengals, the Rams are also stacked with offensive weapons, led by the league’s leading receiver Cooper Kupp, and Odell Beckham Jr, who has suddenly returned to his former, dominant self after a midseason trade from Cleveland.
Those two, plus ever-dangerous tight end Tyler Higbee, make up one of the most lethal passing attacks in the game, while LA’s rushing attack can also hurt you in more ways than one.
They say star players show up when it matters most, and that’s without even mentioning three-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald, Super Bowl champion Von Miller, or Jalen Ramsay.
Unlike the inexperienced Bengals, the Rams have a different kind of pressure to face in the Super Bowl: expectations.
Star players like the ones mentioned above are expected to win rings, while Sean McVay also knows this is his chance to right what went wrong against New England three years ago.
Unlike in the past, this year’s Super Bowl has a bit of everything: high-scoring offences, two strong pass rushes, as well as two of the youngest and brightest coaches calling plays.
That said, I think the Bengals’ biggest downfall, the offensive line, costs them a chance at winning a ring.
Burrow was sacked nine times two weeks ago against Tennessee, the 12th time this season he’s been sacked three or more times in a single game.
The Rams pass rush is arguably the best in the league, and it’s been feasting recently with five sacks already this postseason.
Aside from the other obvious factor – home-field advantage – I also think this game boils down to penalties.
Cincinnati and Los Angeles have been two of the least penalized teams this season, but with the Rams roster featuring more experience and overall maturity, I think they can win the battle with the officials, and ultimately, their first Lombardi Trophy in Los Angeles.
- Los Angeles Rams to Cover (-4.5)
- Tyler Higbee Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- Cooper Kupp Anytime Touchdown Scorer
The bookies are expecting a high-scoring game in Los Angeles with a 48.5 Point Total set at time of publish.
That number feels like a trap, largely due to how well these two defences have played all year.
Both teams have managed to come up with opportune turnovers when it matters most during the playoffs, but as I mentioned earlier, I also think Cincinnati’s outstanding third-down defence will help keep this scoreline low.
The Chiefs actually led the league in third-down conversion percentage during the regular season, only to convert just six of their 12 attempts last week.
The Rams have also been one of the best third-down sides offensively, but they might find it tough to move the chains if the Bengals stack the box and bring the heat.
Aside from all that, the Total has gone Under in each of Cincinnati’s last four games, so the trends also support a low-scoring game.
Now for the fun part, who’s going to score?
At short odds, Cooper Kupp, Cam Akers, and Ja’Marr Chase are all names you must include in your Super Bowl multi’s, so for the sake of keeping this interesting, I’m only going to discuss some of the better value plays here.
Tee Higgins @ $2.90: I spoke earlier about the Bengals dialling up deep routes for Tee Higgins, something they did three times last week against the Chiefs. He reeled in a crucial catch for 44 yards in the third quarter, and I think he can make the Rams pay if they aren’t careful. LA has given up 10 plays of 40+ yards this season, so I expect the Bengals to try and exploit them downfield.
Tyler Higbee @ $3.25: if there’s been one consistent right throughout the season, it’s been Cincinnati’s struggles against tight ends. They’ve given up the fifth-most touchdowns (and yards) to the position this year, and that was again the case last week when Travis Kelce gashed them for 95 yards and a score. At the current price, this is one of my favourite plays.
Sony Michel @ $4.40: the storyline alone is more than enough for me to include Michel on my bet slip. He scored against the Rams in the Super Bowl three years ago as a member of the Patriots and now returns on the other side hoping to win a second ring. He’s fighting Akers and Henderson for carries, but with experience in the big game, you can bet McVay will trust him with a few carries around the goal line.
Samaje Perine @ $14.00: if you’re looking for a guy at knockout odds, look no further than Samaje Perine. Now in his second year with the Bengals, Perine has proven to be a very reliable receiver, catching over 87% of his limited targets. He doesn’t see the ball often, but he has been targeted five times in the red zone this year by Joe Burrow, making him a sneaky chance.
Easily one of the biggest crapshoots ever, so why not go big by backing Brandon Powell ($101) to return the opening kickoff for a touchdown.
The Rams returner took a punt to the course against the Seahawks back in Week 15, and he looked very dangerous at times last week against San Francisco tallying 76 total return yards.
The price is short – maybe even too short – but Matthew Stafford to complete the fairytale only seems fitting.
After spending over a decade in the doldrums in Detroit, I don’t even think Lions fans can hate the idea of Stafford winning a well-deserved Lombardi Trophy, and the MVP.
Turnovers have been a problem at times this year, but he’s still managed to throw for over 4,000 yards and 41 touchdowns this season.
He’s rediscovered some of his form when it matters most, and since this award always goes to quarterbacks, he’s hard to argue against.