NFL Week 17 Tips & Preview

The penultimate week of the NFL season offers up plenty of exciting contests as the playoffs inch closer.

Five teams have booked their spot in the NFC field with San Francisco and Philadelphia in position to book their tickets this weekend as well.

Over in the AFC, only Kansas City has won its division and appear set to grab home field advantage for the third time in four years as long as they can win out.

We’ve got 16 games on the schedule on Monday and Tuesday and we’ve found our best bets for every contest below.

New England v Jacksonville
Over 41.5 Points @ $1.90

There is a chance that the Patriots team that went on a seven game winning streak and briefly held the top seed in the AFC might have been a bit of a mirage for punters.

In the past two weeks it looks like they were found out by better opposition to drop them into the AFC Wild Card picture.

On the plus side, Jacksonville is not a good opponent, however that line of -15.5 in favour of New England is way too high given their defensive struggles.

New England’s defence will give up some points and while they should still win this, the value in the market is the over.

Buffalo v Atlanta
Buffalo to Cover -14.5 @ $1.94

It would require some form of New Years miracle for Atlanta to even be in with a remote chance heading into this game.

Buffalo is finally looking like the team that many expected them to at the start of the season and Josh Allen is playing as well as he ever has.

Buoyed by the confidence of last week’s win in New England, back the Bills to demolish the Falcons.

Cincinnati v Kansas City
Kansas City to Cover -5.5 @ $1.90

How can you back against Kansas City at the moment?

The Super Bowl favourites have been rolling on both sides of the ball and laid down a market in their blowout win against Pittsburgh last week.

While going on the road might slow them down a little bit, they have the big game experience and the Bengals do not.

Even if we see a bit of a slow start, the range of weapons Mahomes has at his disposal should allow them to pull away from the Bengals.

Baltimore v LA Rams
LA Rams by 14+ @ $4.25

If the Rams want to be considered proper Super Bowl contenders, they need to take advantage of a Baltimore side that has been decimated all season and continues to battle to field a full squad.

The fact they are still 8-7 and a chance of playing postseason football is a testament to the talent they still have and the coaching on the staff, but in the last few weeks, it looks like they have reached a critical mass.

Meanwhile LA will want to win and win by a lot to make sure that the rest of the league sees them as the title contender they set out to be.

Indianapolis v Las Vegas
Indianapolis by 14+ @ $3.00

Vegas might have shown some fight last week, picking up their first back to back wins since October, but there is a big difference between playing a Drew Lock lead Denver team and a Jonathan Taylor lead Colts team.

The Colts are borderline unstoppable and should be in better shape for this game than they were against Arizona last week.

They are playing with a fire and intensity that few teams are going to be able to match and I’ll back them to run right over the Raiders here.

Tennessee v Miami
SGM: Tennessee to Win and AJ Brown Anytime TD Scorer

Last week against San Francisco, AJ Brown showed just how valuable a healthy, superstar receiver can be for a team.

He carried the Titans offence that is still hoping to get its main threat back soon and kept them in the mix for home field advantage.

It will require another herculean effort from him as they take on a red hot Miami team that has won seven straight but the Titans are the better team.

I like their defence to shut down the Dolphins and Brown to have another monster day.

Chicago v NY Giants
Over 37.5 Points @ $1.90

If you are voluntarily watching this game, you may as well hope there are some points being scored.

Both teams are eliminated from playoff contention and are just stumbling to the finish line.

Expect nothing and be happy when anything happens.

Washington v Philadelphia
Philadelphia to Win by 14+ @ $4.25

Backing Philadelphia to win big may seem like a bizarre choice until you remember this is a team that just gave up 56 points to Dallas in 45 minutes and 44 seconds.

It’s not like it was all just a defensive capitulation either, Washington couldn’t do a thing on offence and this is a team in need of a hard rest.

Philadelphia has something to play for and while they aren’t as good as Dallas, they should have this one locked away by halftime.

NY Jets v Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay to Cover -13 @ $1.90

The banner for this game may as well read “The Jets Worst Nightmare Returns to New Jersey” because Tom Brady is pretty much that.

Tampa’s offence might be missing a few of its players but these are the games where Brady’s leadership will come in handy.

Even a disrupted preparation due to coach Bruce Arians testing positive for Covid won’t harm the Bucs since Brady pretty much runs the show there anyway.

San Francisco v Houston
Houston to Win @ $5.20

It’s not so much that the Texans were really good against the Chargers last week, but San Francisco, in particular Jimmy Garoppolo was really that bad.

Add in an injury to the thumb on his throwing hand and you have the recipe for a Bay Area disaster.

If Houston can force an early turnover or two from Garoppolo or rookie Trey Lance, the upset could be very much on.

At this price, it’s worth a shot.

LA Chargers v Denver
LA Chargers by 14+ @ $3.00

This play comes down to one major belief, that the Chargers will not be anywhere near as bad this week as they were in Houston.

Needing to keep their playoff hopes alive, LA simply has to get by Denver and at in the process atone for their loss at Mile High in Week 12.

If the Chargers offence can find a way to score at least 28 points, something it has done in five of its last six outings, they should be able to pull clear of the Broncos.

Dallas v Arizona
Dallas -5.5 and Over 51.5 Points @ $3.50

Given their recent history, Dallas will find some way to mess it up, but right now they are playing like a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

They just put 56 up on Washington and appear to be almost unstoppable.

Arizona might be in the midst of a very concerning form slump that has seen them lose their last three games and are looking very likely to lose their fourth here.

Everything on their offence just looks like a grind at the moment and while they should find a couple of touchdowns, it won’t be enough to keep pace with the Cowboys.

New Orleans v Carolina
Under 38.5 Points @ $1.90

There is absolutely nothing wrong with calling this game a stay away considering the mass uncertainty hanging over both rosters.

It sounds like Ian Book will be spared another beating with Trevor Siemian set to return to the lineup but it won’t make much difference for their offence.

Carolina is going back to Sam Darnold who will be a minor upgrade on Cam Newton and PJ Walker but it’s tough to see them doing a whole lot of anything against this Saints defence.

Seattle v Detroit
Russel Wilson 3+ Touchdown Passes

There is not a lot of intrigue in this game other than it could be the Russel Wilson’s farewell to Seattle.

I’ve got no interest in touching the head to head or line markets and instead I’ll look for a storyline to back.

Take Wilson to have a big day in Seattle’s final home game of the season.

Green Bay v Minnesota
Green Bay to Cover -6.5 @ $1.90

The Packers just keep rolling with their fourth straight win of the season, putting them in the box seat to secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Minnesota might have taken the Week 11 matchup but with the Packers offence rolling and the likely return of Jaire Alexander to help contain Justin Jefferson, Green Bay is just too good.

Whether it is through the air or on the ground, the Packers should cruise to victory.

Pittsburgh v Cleveland
Cleveland to Cover -3 @ $1.83

Big Ben could, and probably should be another quarterback making his final home start this weekend when the Steelers host the Browns.

Both teams have had their issues staying healthy but at their best, it’s tough to look past Cleveland, as long as Baker Mayfield doesn’t throw four more interceptions.

But with difference makers on both sides of the ball outside of the quarterback position, the Browns are the play.