Thanksgiving always brings us a special slate of NFL games… at least that’s what you’ll be telling yourself waking up at stupid o’clock to watch the Lions and Texans kick off Week 12 and the coffee is yet to kick in.
While the games might not be the most intriguing matchups, its hard to complain about a Friday morning double header.
There’s a lot to look forward to Monday morning as well with unbeaten Steelers hosting Baltimore in a rescheduled game, the Falcons and Raiders possibly in line to break all sorts of yardage records before the Buccaneers and Chiefs face off in what many had earmarked as the game of the season back in May when the schedule came out.
As an added bonus, for the first time since Week 3 we have all 32 teams in action with no byes scheduled so check out our Week 12 NFL tips here!
As has been the case since 1934, the Detroit Lions will play in a Thanksgiving Day game.
Admittedly there have been more intriguing contests than this season’s one with the 3-7 Houston Texans but there is still plenty to get excited about from a punting perspective.
Deshaun Watson is fresh off destroying the New England Patriots and he should be in for another big day against a porous Lions pass defence.
Just two games ago they gave up 390 yards to Alex Smith the offence couldn’t muster a single point against Carolina in their most recent game, while giving up 24/34 completions to PJ Walker.
Houston is one of the rare cases of a bad team that doesn’t have a first or second round pick, so they have literally no motivation to try and tank here.
Not to mention the confidence boost another big win will have on guys like Watson, Texans by at least a field goal.
Ignore the respective records of both teams, this is a game with plenty on the line.
The winner could very easily finish this week as the leader of the NFC East and find themselves in control of their playoff destiny.
With Andy Dalton back in the lineup, Dallas’s offence was stabilised and did enough against a struggling Vikings defence to win a back and forth shootout.
Thanks to his two years off, you could have been forgiven for forgetting that Alex Smith is still a half decent quarterback and is capable of making most of the throws you need a guy like him too.
Dallas just has too many weapons to keep up with and a big day for rookie CeeDee Lamb could very easily guide Dallas to a victory.
*UPDATE: This game has been moved to Monday 5:15am AEDT however the breakdown and tip still stands*
With the fortnight the Ravens have had, there is no chance I’m backing them in this game.
First came a loss to New England in a downpour followed by an overtime loss to Derrick Henry and the Titans, then their two primary running backs, a defensive tackle and a pass rusher all tested positive for COVID with “more to come” in the next couple of days.
Couple those absences with being forced into remote work and it’s simply a case of Pittsburgh by how much.
Because of the rivalry they have with the Steelers, I’ll give Baltimore some credit here and expect John Harbaugh to be able to get his available players up and running for this game to at least give us a contest.
When these sides met at the start of November it was a game that went right down to the wire with the Steelers winning 28-24 and this should be a one possession game but I’m not backing against the unbeaten team to move to 11-0.
When you have two in form offences facing off against a pair of defences that struggle against half-decent teams in a dome, you have all the makings of an entertaining shootout.
Starting with Vegas, they have scored over 30 points in their last three games and have had more than their share of struggles against the Chargers and Chiefs on defence.
Bottom line is if they continue to produce the way they have with the ball in hand they will be good for at least 30 points, so don’t be afraid to look for the likes of Josh Jacobs and Darren Waller in the touchdown scorer markets when they go up as well.
Last week aside the Falcons look like they are managing to put things together and this is the sort of vulnerable secondary that Matt Ryan is still more than capable of ripping apart.
Either the Falcons are going to score at least 24 points themselves or make that many mistakes the Raiders will be able to convert some short fields into a couple of extra touchdowns and get into the 40’s.
It’s a broken record at this stage but the Jets still suck and I’ll continue to back against them for the rest of the season.
Miami did not look good against Denver with Tua getting benched while the game was still there for the taking, putting up 100 yards of total offence through three and a bit quarters.
In Week 6 the Dolphins blanked the Jets 24-0 and while another shutout is probably out of the question, their defence will once again have a field day and keep their playoff hopes alive.
If this game took place seven days ago I would have jumped on the Bengals to pull off an upset but with Joe Burrow done for the season, I have to take the Giants.
After having last weekend off, Joe Judge’s side is in the mix in the miserable NFC East and winning three of their remaining six games could get them a home playoff game.
It doesn’t have to be pretty (and it probably won’t be) but with the Bengals starting Brandon Allen who beat out Ryan Finley for the job in practice, it’s hard to see the Bengals really getting anything going.
New York is not good enough to really blow the Bengals out, but this finishing 20-10 with both Giants touchdowns coming off turnovers seems like a very likely outcome.
The Colts got themselves back into the AFC South race with a win over the Titans two weeks ago and can take full control over it with a victory here.
At this stage it’s hard to ignore just how good they have looked in their recent run and they have the talent to shut down the major threat on Tennessee Derrick Henry.
Historically this is a game that has favoured the visitors but the Titans look like they are struggling for consistency at the moment and until they show something I’m happy to take them on here.
It probably has not been the best two weeks in the Bills facility, having spent their bye stewing over their insane loss to the Cardinals in their last game.
The Chargers found an opponent they could not choke away a lead against in the New York Jets last week but still only came away with a six point win.
One thing is true for both of these sides and that is that they can only play close games.
Aside from the Bills loss to the Titans in October, every other game these two have played in have been decided by 10 points or less with eight being decided by three or less.
The current line is too high to take the Bills but considering the Chargers have to make a cross country flight and play in what will probably be miserable conditions (it’s Buffalo after all), I can’t take them for the upset either.
Given the likelihood of this game coming down to the final possession, I’ll take the Chargers to cover the line.
If the Browns are a good team (which they have looked like more often than not) they should have no trouble destroying a dreadful Jaguars team.
Since the Jags Week 1 win over Indianapolis they have lost nine straight games, five of which came by 10 or more points.
Last week they were apathetic against the Steelers they have given up over 100 rushing yards in eight of their nine losses, including 205 to the Bengals and 180 to the Lions.
As it so happens, the Browns strength is running the ball so don’t be surprised if the Browns backfield sets some sort of NFL record in their demolition job.
How many times in the last two decades would this have been a “bet your maximum amount on the Patriots as a home underdog” situation?
But as it seems like needs to be said every week, this is not the same Patriots team than we have seen over the last 20 or so seasons.
Unless Bill Belichick can crank up his weather machine to 11 and have it start raining like a scene out of a Hollywood disaster movie again, his side won’t have much success slowing down Kyler Murray and the Cardinals.
We saw just last week how they can struggle against good quarterbacks and while Murray isn’t quite at the level of Deshaun Watson (yet), he presents more of a dual threat than Lamar Jackson.
New England will continue to battle, scratch and claw their way through to give themselves a chance at the end of the game but it’s like watching someone fight with a crossbow against an army of rocket launchers.
It’s the Teddy Bridgewater return to Minnesota game (as a starter) with the Panthers offseason acquisition set to come back into the starting lineup after missing last week’s win over Detroit.
To be fair, he could have gone out and succeeded on one leg against the Lions who didn’t muster a point against a team that had given up 77 in their two prior games.
Minnesota is a much better offence than the Lions and I am backing a shootout here with the Panthers and Vikings both capable of putting up points.
Not to mention the Vikings just got ripped apart by Andy Dalton and the Cowboys.
Keep an eye on this one as it heads into the fourth quarter since there is every chance this one goes down to the wire.
The Saints train just continues to roll on with a comfortable 15 point win over Atlanta last week despite the absence of Drew Brees to make it seven straight wins.
As it stands they will have home field advantage throughout the playoffs and the Superdome is one of the few places where that has still held up in 2020.
Of course, another place that is always difficult for visiting teams to go to is Denver and it will be a real test of the “matured” Taysom Hill at quarterback.
It was impossible to fault his performance against the Falcons but Denver is a whole different animal however I’ll back Hill to get the support he needs from the likes of Alvin Kamara to kick start the Saints three game road trip on the right foot.
I’m ready to buy in on the Rams as a contender in 2020, despite the relatively narrow margin for error they have thanks to playing in the same division as the Seahawks and Cardinals.
Their defence looks like it is starting to peak and Sean McVay is managing to coach around Jarred Goff’s deficiencies by not asking him to think too much.
In any other universe this would have been a massive blockbuster, but the 49ers have run out of bullets to fire.
The injuries are just too much to overcome and the Rams will keep them at arm’s length all afternoon.
Which version of Tom Brady and the Buccaneers will we get in this game?
If it’s the one from his primetime and feature games then the Chiefs could be in for a post-Thanksgiving feast.
As bad as the 43-year-old veteran has looked at times this season, he has rarely put together consecutive bad games.
Not to mention there would be an element of settling a score with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs with the reigning Super Bowl MVP perhaps the best positioned of all active quarterbacks to challenge his mantle as the greatest quarterback of all time.
If Brady can play a clean game he has the potential to match the nearly flawless Mahomes score for score with his arsenal of weapons.
It’s a lot to ask of Brady but in his career he loves to play the underdog card and this is shaping up as one of those patented “how did we not see this coming” wins he seems to pull out.
If there is one big takeaway from these all-NFC North primetime games, it’s that defence will be the dominant force, even if one of those defences is wearing Packers uniforms.
It helps that they are hosting a Bears side that has not scored 20 points in three of their last four games while the Packers cannot afford to drop many more games in their quest for the NFC’s top seed.
Despite still holding the NFC’s seventh seed, I’m ready to cross off the Bears as a playoff team with how poor they have looked in the last month.
They have the talent to keep this close but don’t have the offensive firepower to score enough points to get by a better Green Bay team.
It feels like an eternity ago but back in January these two sides met in a slugfest of a Wild Card game.
Seattle took that one 17-9 after Carson Wentz was lost to injury early and it’s pretty much been all downhill for the Eagles since then with injuries and mistakes condemning them to a 3-6-1 record although they do lead the NFC East and can hold onto that with a win.
Seattle on the other hand is battling with good teams for its division and needs this win a whole lot more than their opponents.
At some point Russell Wilson is going to start to play like an MVP again and after having 11 days to prepare for this one, Seattle can kick start its run home with a convincing win here.