A thrilling Wildcard weekend leaves just 8 NFL teams standing in the quest for a Super Bowl. 3 underdogs pulled off the outright victory last week, showing just how unpredictable the NFL playoffs can be. The Chiefs and Saints remain the favourites in their respective conferences, however both will face intense competition to still be playing in February. In what many consider to be their favourite week of the season, let’s take a look at our best bets for each of the four NFL Divisional Playoff contests.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts
Where to Watch: 7 Mate, ESPN, or NFL Game Pass Sunday 8:30 am
The first game of divisional weekend takes place at Arrowhead Stadium as the #1 seed Kansas City Chiefs take on the #6 seed Indianapolis Colts. Indianapolis are far from your average #6 seed, having won 10 of their last 11 games to get to this point. Having had a phenomenal start to the campaign, Kansas City are well-deserving #1 seeds. This might be the best opportunity to reach a Super Bowl that star Coach Andy Reid has had in his career. In what is sure to be an exciting opener, let’s take a look at our best bets on the board.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs had a very solid hit out against Oakland in Week 17 before enjoying a well-earned bye last week. Patrick Mahomes was again excellent against the Raiders, throwing for 281 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 24 attempts. Tyreek Hill had another day with over 100 yards and a touchdown, whilst Tight End Travis Kelce capped off another All-Pro season. Running Back Damien Williams has also stepped up to provide Kansas City with a new threat in the backfield after Kareem Hunt’s release.
Whilst the Chiefs have struggled defensively this season, their performance against Oakland was one of the best of the year. They were excellent in pass defence, allowing just 5.6 yards per attempt from Derek Carr and forcing 2 crucial interceptions. Justin Houston and Dee Ford have emerged as one of the league’s premier pass rushing duos, combining for over 20 sacks on the season. With how strong the Chiefs offence has been this year, even an average performance from this unit should be enough to pull out the win.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts enter this one off the back of a very impressive road win in Houston last week. Andrew Luck had another solid day through the air, throwing for 222 yards and 2 touchdowns. Marlon Mack has appeared to get going in the running game, totalling 148 yards and a touchdown on his 24 carries last week. T.Y Hilton continued his strong play after taking his clown mask off, hauling in 5 catches for 85 yards. This unit will need to be at their best this week to keep up with the high-powered Chiefs offence.
The win in Houston last week was primarily due to an excellent performance from this Colts defence. They did an excellent job halting Deshaun Watson in the passing game, allowing just 218 total yards through the air. Whilst Watson did have a few solid scrambles, they held the Texans Running Backs to just 29 yards on the ground. Even star Receiver DeAndre Hopkins was held to only 37 yards on the day. Guys like Darius Leonard, Clayton Geathers and Pierre Desir give this unit some star power. Coming up against arguably the league’s premiere offence, they’ll need to continue their strong recent form here.
Best Bets
Chiefs -5
Everyone is seemingly taking the Colts in this one and I just can’t see why. They’ve admittedly been in strong form of late, but their schedule has been incredibly easy. This is also their third straight week of travel, whereas the Chiefs have been at home this whole time. Andy Reid is an excellent coach after a bye, and I expect him to have KC well prepared here. With one of the best home fields in the NFL, Arrowhead Stadium will almost certainly be rocking here. Laying only 5 points, I’ll be putting my faith in who I believe to be the better Coach/QB duo at home.
Under 57
Given the dynamic nature of both of these offences, a lot of money has been coming in on the over. My under play here is partly a result of the weather forecast. It is expected to be around 30 degrees Fahrenheit in Kansas City come game day, with the real possibility of rain and even snow. With such a high total, I expect this to somewhat halt these two high-scoring offences. The recent success Indianapolis has found in the run game makes me think they’ll also look to slow the game down here. Currently at 57, I think this goes down before kick-off.
First Touchdown Scorer Analysis
With no first touchdown scorer markets at the time of writing, I’ll analyse the most likely touchdown threats on each side. For Kansas City, you have to start with the dynamic pass-catching duo of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. The recent form of RB Damien Williams means he’s a solid outsider. Indianapolis have almost a mirror offence, with pass-catchers Eric Ebron and TY Hilton being their two primary red-zone threats this season. Marlon Mack has also rounded into form of late and is probably the most likely Colt to score first.
Score Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs 31-24 Indianapolis Colts
Los Angeles Rams vs Dallas Cowboys
Where to Watch: ESPN, 7 Mate, or NFL Game Pass Sunday 12:15 pm
The second fixture of Wildcard weekend and arguably one of our games of the season takes place in Los Angeles as the #2 seed Rams host the #4 seed Cowboys. Whilst they’ve wobbled a little bit lately, the Rams enjoyed a very successful 13-3 season that saw them have a bye last week. Dallas enters this one in phenomenal form, winning 8 of their last 9 games to get to this point. In the premier time slot for NFL football, let’s take a look at our best bets in this one.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams had a solid hitout against the 49ers in Week 17 before their well-earned by in the Wildcard round. Jared Goff looked back to his best in this one, throwing for 4 touchdown passes and no turnovers. Receiver Brandin Cooks was the primary beneficiary, hauling in 5 catches for 62 yards and 2 scores. Running Back C.J Anderson again filled in admirably for Todd Gurley, going for 132 yards and a score on the ground. After a month out of action, the Rams will hope Gurley is raring to go for this one.
Defensively, the Rams have been somewhat underwhelming this season. They’ve got a ton of star talent on paper but have given up some surprisingly huge scoring outbursts. They were somewhat better against the 49ers last time out, forcing 3 interceptions that included a Cory Littleton Pick-6. The rushing defence did somewhat struggle however, allowing a shade under 6 yards per carry. If they can’t contain Zeke in this one, they could be in trouble.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys make the trip to Los Angeles off the back of a very competitive win against Seattle last week. Ezekiel Elliott again ran the show here, totalling 169 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. Star Receiver Amari Cooper also had one of his better showings in recent weeks, hauling in 7 catches for 106 yards. I’d be remiss not to mention the strong play of Dak Prescott, who threw for 226 yards and a score, before adding a crucial late rushing touchdown to seal the win. If the Cowboys can regularly feed Zeke in this one, they’ve got a chance of the upset here.
Defensively, the Cowboys have been excellent all year and had another very strong display against Seattle last week. They were particularly strong in rush defence, holding Seattle to just 73 yards on 3 yards per attempt. The pass defence also was relatively effective, allowing only 226 yards on the day. Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch continue to form one of the league’s premier linebacking duos, whilst DeMarcus Lawrence continues to generate consistent pressure. Coming up against an elite Rams offence, they’ll need to be at their best here.
Best Bets
Cowboys +7.5
Despite an excellent start to the campaign, the Rams really did stumble towards the end. If Todd Gurley isn’t 100%, this offence can go downhill fast. Dallas has also found a formula that works of late, pounding Zeke Elliott all game long. The Rams defence has been susceptible to the run this season and could be vulnerable against this excellent Cowboys rushing attack. Jared Goff’s recent struggled also make me question whether he can hang with this strong Cowboys defence. Through the key number of 7, I’ll take America’s Team in this one.
Over 49 Points
Whilst the Cowboys defence has played very well of late, this is one of the lower totals we’ve seen for a Rams game all season. With perfect conditions expected for this one, I believe the value is actually on the over here. LA have a huge edge in the coaching department and I think a solid Sean McVay game plan gets the Rams scoring in at least the high 20’s. Dallas have proven they are no slouches offensively either, scoring 22 or more in 6 of their last 8 games. Whilst I don’t think the scoring gets crazy in this one, 49 points just isn’t enough.
First Touchdown Scorer Analysis
With both of these Running Backs being the lynchpins of their respective offences, it’s tough to look past Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott to score first here. Amari Cooper is the main receiving threat for Dallas, whilst Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods are capable on the other side. Dak Prescott has also shown an affinity for rushing touchdowns of late and could be worth a punt as an outsider.
Score Prediction: Los Angeles Rams 27-23 Dallas Cowboys.
New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers
Where to Watch: ESPN, 7 Mate, or NFL Game Pass Monday 5 am
Our third game sees the AFC #2 seed Patriots play host to the #4 seed Chargers, in what many are predicting to be the game of the round. This definitely appears to be a matchup between two strong teams, with the Patriots 8-0 at home this season and the Chargers 7-1 on the road. It is also a matchup between two Hall of Fame Quarterbacks, as Brady and Rivers again face off in the playoffs. Let’s look at where the value lies in Foxboro.
New England Patriots
The Pats enter this one off yet another home bye after handily dispatching of the Jets last time out. Tom Brady had one of his better games of the season, completing 24/33 passes for 250 yards and 4 touchdowns. The running game was also working, going for 131 yards on 30 carries. The recent release of Josh Gordon and the poor play of Rob Gronkowski this season have the Pats somewhat devoid of talent. That said, they are still a very strong 8-0 at home this season and you know Brady will be up for this one.
The game against the Jets was also one of New England’s best defensive performances of the season. They held the Jets to just 3 points, allowing only 135 passing yards in the process. That marks 5 of their last 6 games where New England have held their opponent to 17 points or less. With players like Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, and Kyle Van Noy, this is definitely a unit with some talent. They’ll need to be at their best to contain a very solid Chargers offence this week.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers enter this one after a gritty revenge win over the Ravens in the Wildcard round last weekend. This was despite a relatively poor performance from their usually dynamic offence. Phillip Rivers threw for just 160 yards at 5 yards per attempt, whilst star Running Back Melvin Gordon had only 40 yards on his 17 carries. With an excellent performance from their defence, they were able to just play solid complementary football. Against a rested Pats team, they’ll need to be at their best this week.
There aren’t enough superlatives to describe how strong the Chargers defence was last week. They did an excellent job containing Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, who had under 20 passing yards through 2.5 quarters. A pass rush led by Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa was excellent, managing 7 sacks for 55 yards on Jackson. They also did a phenomenal job halting the Ravens dynamic rushing attack, allowing just 3.9 yards per carry all afternoon. Whilst the Patriots offence is a step up from Baltimore, this Chargers defence is definitely one of the best in the NFL.
Best Bets
Chargers +4.5
The fact that almost everyone is on the Chargers this week makes me somewhat hesitant, but I see strong value at this number. Despite enjoying an 8-0 home record, the only Patriots home win that appears impressive was the 3-point win over Kansas City. The Chargers, on the other hand, have four excellent road wins this season, beating Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Seattle, and Baltimore. This is a battle-tested team with strong talent on both sides of the ball. I expect their surging defence to contain Brady and Co in a competitive affair here. Getting 4.5 in this one, I have to take the Chargers.
Under 45.5
This is another game where the weather could play a factor. Current forecasts are for 25 degrees Fahrenheit here as well as potential rain. The New England offence hasn’t been the same this season and I think they’ll struggle against this very strong Chargers defence. Los Angeles weren’t all that great offensively last week and they’ll also face another tough test going into Foxboro here. It’s typically best practice to parlay an underdog bet with betting the total under and I think that’s where the value lies here again.
First Touchdown Scorer Analysis
On the Patriots side, it’s tough to overlook dual-threat RB James White to score first. Lead Back Sony Michel and Tight End Rob Gronkowski also loom as potential threats. On the Chargers side, both Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen will likely be the first port of call in the red zone. Veteran Tight End Antonio Gates also looms as a potential outside option.
Score Prediction: New England Patriots 23-20 Los Angeles Chargers
New Orleans Saints vs Philadelphia Eagles
Where to Watch: ESPN, 7 Mate, or NFL Game Pass Monday 8:40 am
Our fourth and final fixture this week sees the NFC #1 seed Saints play host to the #6 seed Eagles. The Eagles will be looking for revenge in this one after suffering a 48-7 humiliation in New Orleans earlier this season. The Saints will be looking to build on their excellent campaign so far and use their rest advantage to inflict another similar beatdown. Let’s wrap up our coverage with our best bets from the big easy.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints haven’t played a meaningful game since the Steelers in Week 16, enjoying a Bye last week and a meaningless affair against Carolina in Week 17. It was refreshing to see Drew Brees look back to his best in this one, completing 27/39 passes for 326 yards and a score. Michael Thomas was again the primary beneficiary, hauling in 11 catches for 109 yards and a touchdown. Despite a poor performance in that one, both Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara have been excellent this season, combining for 1500 yards and 20 touchdowns.
Defensively, not much has been made over just how much the Saints have improved over the second half of the year. They went through a 6-game stretch holding each of their opponents to 17 points or less. With how dynamic this offence is, these levels will be more than enough to win a Super Bowl. They did struggle somewhat in the passing game against Pittsburgh, allowing Roethlisberger to throw for 350 yards and 3 scores. If they can contain Big **** Nick in this one, New Orleans should cruise to victory here.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles make the trip to New Orleans off the back of a gritty 1-point win over Chicago last week. Nick Foles again came up huge in the clutch, throwing for 266 yards and 2 touchdowns, including the game-winner. Receiver Alshon Jeffery had a solid day in the office against his former team, hauling in 6 catches for 82 yards. The running game was surprisingly nowhere to be seen, registering only 42 yards all afternoon on 23 attempts.
Defensively, the Eagles did a great job of keeping the Bears offence in check. Mitch Trubisky did throw for 300 yards in this one but wasn’t able to enjoy much success in the red zone. The usually dynamic Bears rushing attack was also effectively eliminated, going for just 65 yards on 18 carries. Guys like Malcolm Jenkins, Michael Bennett, and Fletcher Cox ensure this unit has plenty of star power. If they’ve got any hope of hanging with New Orleans this week, the Philly defence will need to be at its best.
Best Bets
Saints -8
Everyone appears to be swept up in Big **** Nick fever here, causing the line to move from the 10-point opener. Personally, I’m not buying into the hype. I think Philadelphia was significantly outplayed by Chicago last week and honestly shouldn’t be in this game. Their injuries in the defensive backfield will likely be exposed by Drew Brees and the dynamic Saints passing attack here. Whilst they do have a revenge factor here, the prior matchup shows just how well the Saints can fare against this team. With one of the best home-field advantages in all of American sports, I expect a fired-up Superdome crowd as the Saints comfortably win this one.
Over 50
With this one being played in a dome, we don’t have anything to worry about in terms of weather. New Orleans have been incredible offensively at home this season, scoring 31 or more points in 6 of their 7 competitive home fixtures. The decimated Eagles secondary will likely struggle to contain this strong New Orleans passing attack. If the Saints get out to an early lead, this naturally means the Eagles will have to play more expansively in return. I expect this to lead to a more high-scoring, fast-paced game, making an over set at just 50 points appear strong value.
First Touchdown Scorer Analysis:
As the largest favourites of the week, I’d definitely weight your bets here towards New Orleans. It’s tough to look past dual-threat RB Alvin Kamara who is a huge threat in the Red-Zone. Bruising Back Mark Ingram and star Receiver Michael Thomas are both also very solid options. From the Philadelphia side, I think the receiving trio of Alshon Jeffery, Zach Ertz, and Nelson Agholor are your best options. Out of a struggling group of Running Backs, the versatility of Darren Sproles makes him a decent outsider.
Score Prediction: Saints 31-20 Eagles.