After another exciting season of NFL action, we’re finally here at Conference Championship weekend. The general consensus is that these are the four best teams in the NFL, all of whom deserve to be here. They all enter this week off very solid home victories that saw them put to rest any doubts the fans and media had about them. Will Brady and Brees both make Super Bowl appearances again? Or is it time for the young guns in Mahomes and Goff? Let’s analyse both of these games in depth in our conference championship preview.
New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams
Where to Watch: ESPN, 7 Mate, or NFL Game Pass, Monday 7:05 am
Heralded as the likely NFC Championship all year long, we get a battle between arguably the NFL’s two best teams as the Saints play host to the Rams. This is a rematch of an epic Week 9 encounter that saw the Saints emerge as 45-35 winners. Drew Brees is undefeated at home in the playoffs during his career and will be looking to lead another New Orleans Super Bowl push. Los Angeles also possess a star-studded roster on both sides of the ball and will want revenge for the loss in New Orleans that ultimately cost them the #1 seed. Let’s take a look at our best bets on the board in this one.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints enter this one off the back of a solid victory against Philly last week, that saw them come back from an early 14-point hole. Quarterback Drew Brees had another solid afternoon, eclipsing 300 yards passing and throwing for 2 touchdowns. Receiver Michael Thomas had another stud performance, hauling in 12 catches for 171 yards and a score. The strong Running Back duo of Ingram and Kamara also looked strong, combining for 124 yards on the ground. If the Saints offence can get back to their best here, they’ll definitely be tough to beat.
One thing that hasn’t been mentioned much is how solid the Saints defence was last week. After giving up 2 early touchdowns, they completely nullified the Eagles attack for the rest of the game. The run defence was particularly strong, holding Philadelphia under 50 yards on the ground. Even Big **** Nick had no answer for the Saints defence, completing just 18/31 passes and throwing 2 picks. Marshon Lattimore was the standout in this one, hauling in both interceptions.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams make the trip to New Orleans off the back of a convincing home win over Dallas last week. This was led by a truly dominant rushing attack that went for 273 yards and 3 touchdowns. C.J. Anderson was particularly excellent, toting the rock 23 times for 123 yards and 2 scores. QB Jared Goff was solid as a game manager, going 15/28 for 186 yards. Robert Woods looked the most dangerous of the receivers, hauling in 6 catches for 69 yards.
For a defence with a ton of star talent, the Rams have flattered to deceive at times this season. That said, they did a strong job of containing the Cowboys offence last week. The rush defence was phenomenal, holding the strong Dallas rushing attack to just 50 yards on 22 carries. Aside from a garbage time touchdown, the pass defence also more than held its own. For LA to have a chance in this one, I think Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh need to generate pressure early and often.
Best Bets
Saints -3
This is a well-priced line, but I have to give the edge to the Saints here. The Brees and Payton duo is undefeated in home playoff games and they’ve really got a shot to do something special here. Despite a strong start to the season, Jared Goff appears to have regressed lately and will have his work cut out for him against this surging Saints defence. One thing that does make me somewhat hesitant is that the Rams have the revenge angle on their side. That said, both sides should be playing this one with full motivation regardless and I expect homefield to prove the difference for the Saints. With recent action taking this to just -3, this is my best bet of the week.
Under 57
Whilst they were both pass-heavy offences to start the season, both the Saints and the Rams have shifted to more of a run focus of late. Both of these teams would love to control the ball and dominate the time of possession battle. This makes me think we won’t see anything like the 80 points these two sides put up last time. The New Orleans defence has been particularly strong of late and we know how much talent this Rams unit has. At 57 points, I think this one just edges under.
First Touchdown Scorer Analysis
Both sides have a ton of excellent offensive weapons. With New Orleans as the favourites, I’d lean towards one of the Running Backs Ingram or Kamara to score first. Michael Thomas also looms as a strong passing option, whilst Ted Ginn is a solid outsider. On the Los Angeles side, it’s tough to ignore the surging Running Back duo of Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson. Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods both loom as solid alternatives. Given the strong offences of these two sides, the first touchdown being by defence or special teams seems unlikely.
Score Prediction: New Orleans Saints 31-24 Los Angeles Rams
Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots
Where to Watch: ESPN, 7 Mate, or NFL Game Pass Monday 10:40 am
In another rematch of an epic encounter earlier this season, the Patriots and Chiefs will do battle for the AFC Championship, this time in Kansas City. The Patriots took that one out 43-40 at home last time but have been a different team on the road this season. Both of these sides had crushing home victories last season and would be worthy representatives for the AFC in the Super Bowl. In a game that could signal the changing of the guard, let’s take a look at our best bets.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs were phenomenal at home last week, knocking off the surging Colts 31-13. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes delivered another solid display, throwing for 278 yards in the cold. Travis Kelce had another very strong 100-yard display, whilst speedster Tyreek Hill hauled in 8 catches for 72 yards. One surprise in this one was just how good the Chiefs rushing attack was. RB Damien Williams was excellent here, toting the rock 25 times for 129 yards and a score. Kansas City added 3 more rushing touchdowns in a complete performance.
Defensively, they also did a great job of getting after Andrew Luck and the Colts. They allowed just 5.6 yards per attempt from Luck, sacking him 3 times in the process. The Colts improving rushing attack was also nullified, managing just 87 yards on the ground. Justin Houston and Dee Ford loom as the biggest threats on the Chiefs defence, combining for all of the 3 sacks last week. One thing’s for sure, they’ll need to do better than the 43 points they allowed last time to New England.
New England Patriots
The Pats had arguably the most convincing win of divisional playoff weekend, truly crushing the Chargers. Tom Brady delivered another aerial assault, throwing for 343 yards and a touchdown. Julian Edelman was the primary beneficiary, hauling in 9 catches for 151 yards. James White also showed his versatility, catching the ball 15 times for 97 yards. Running Back Sony Michel led an excellent day for the rushing attack, totalling 129 yards and 3 touchdowns on his 24 carries. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will be looking for more of the same here.
Up until some garbage time Chargers touchdowns, the Pats defence was also firmly in control of this one. They completely nullified the LA rushing attack, allowing just 19 yards on 10 attempts. The pass defence was just as solid, holding Phillip Rivers to just 25/51 at an average of 6.5 yards per attempt. With players like Stephon Gilmore, Devin McCourty, and Patrick Chung, the Pats secondary has been strong all season. Against a fearsome KC offence, they’ll need to be at their best again here.
Best Bets
Patriots +3
I hope I’m wrong with this one, but the Pats again appear to be solid value to make the Super Bowl. Despite having an excellent season, you have to wonder whether the moment will be too big for Mahomes here. With temperatures below 20 degrees Fahrenheit expected here, the Chiefs home field advantage will likely be marginalized. Now that everything is on the line, we’re likely to see maximum effort from a Patriots team that has at times coasted. Belichick has historically had a strong edge over Andy Reid from a coaching perspective and I can see that continuing here.
Under 56.5
This is another play that is made with the weather in mind. The temperatures in this one are expected to be so low that I can see it having a real impact on the Quarterbacks in this one. Both of these defences showed improved performances last week, which I can see continuing again here. I think the fact that there were 83 points scored in their meeting earlier this season has artificially inflated the total. Both coaches will come into this one with a more conservative gameplan, especially with their improved rushing attacks. That, coupled with the weather, makes me lean under here at 56.5.
First Touchdown Scorer Analysis
Both of these sides again have some very solid options for first TD scorer. On the Kansas City side, it’s tough to ignore the dynamic duo of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. After a strong performance and first touchdown honours last week, RB Damien Williams is also well in play. For the Patriots, RB duo Sony Michel and James White loom as solid red-zone threats. Receiver Julian Edelman enters this one in strong form, whilst Rob Gronkowski also remains in the picture.
Score Prediction: New England Patriots 27-24 Kansas City Chiefs