After another exciting NFL season, we now have the 6 AFC playoff teams that will compete for the Conference title. Having stood out all season with very stellar campaigns, both the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots will receive a well-earned bye. As fellow division title winners, both the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens will enjoy a home playoff game next week. Rounding out the final 6, we have the Los Angeles Chargers and Indianapolis Colts as wildcards. Let’s take a look at each team’s chances and provide our best bet.
Kansas City Chiefs $2.50
Despite a mini slump down the stretch, the Chiefs consistently excellent play saw them finish the season with an impressive 12-4 record. QB Patrick Mahomes was a revelation in his first year as the starter, throwing for over 5000 yards and 50 touchdowns. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce both had fantastic seasons, each going over 1300 yards and 10 touchdowns. The achilles heel of this Chiefs side is their defence, particularly a rush defence that has struggled mightily. If they can sort this out soon, I believe they are far and away the best side in the Conference.
New England Patriots $3
The Patriots also had a few hiccups this season, but righted the ship and finished 11-5, including an impressive 8-0 at home. Tom Brady had another largely solid season, throwing for just under 4400 yards and 29 touchdowns to only 11 interceptions. Injuries to Rob Gronkowski and the recent release of Josh Gordon has meant this offence is devoid of weapons. Fortunately, the defence has stepped up, holding 7 of their last 9 opponents to 17 points or less. As essentially a lock to make the AFC Championship, the Patriots appear solid value at $3.
Houston Texans $12
The Texans enjoyed a 9-game winning streak during the middle of the season to end up winning the AFC South at 11-5. Deshaun Watson emerged as a very legit QB, throwing for over 4100 yards and 26 touchdowns to just 9 interceptions. DeAndre Hopkins had another outstanding season, going off for just under 1600 yards and 11 touchdowns. Defensively, Houston has been very strong almost all season, holding 12 of their last 13 opponents to 24 points or less. With their excellent pass rush, Houston is more than capable of pulling off some upsets in January.
Baltimore Ravens $7.50
Another team off a phenomenal late-season run, the Ravens won 6 of their last 7 games to claim the AFC North with a 10-6 record. Rookie QB Lamar Jackson emerged as an excellent dual-threat option to take this offence to the next level. The rushing attack was particularly good this season, going over 2400 yards and 19 total touchdowns. Defensively, the Ravens have also been fantastic of late, holding each of their last 7 opponents to 27 points or less. If they can navigate a tough opening game against the Chargers, $7.50 looks like excellent value for Baltimore.
Los Angeles Chargers $8.50
The Chargers enter the playoffs sporting the second-best record in the AFC at 12-4. QB Phillip Rivers had another very strong season, throwing for over 4300 yards and 32 touchdowns. Keenan Allen emerged as one of the league’s premier receivers, going for 1200 yards and 6 touchdowns. Defensively, the Chargers have also been excellent all year, holding 10 of their opponents to 23 points or less. Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram, and rookie Derwin James have been standouts on that end. In a wide-open AFC, the Chargers have every shot at $8.50.
Indianapolis Colts $13
Unsurprisingly, the Colts also had a very strong finish to the season, winning 9 of their last 10 games to finish an impressive 10-6. QB Andrew Luck had another outstanding season, throwing for an impressive 4600 yards and 39 touchdowns. In T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron, he has two excellent weapons to throw to. Defensively, the Colts were very much improved in the second-half of the season. Rookie Linebacker Darius Leonard particularly shined, going for 163 tackles and 7 sacks. If they can get past Houston in the Wildcard round, Indy can be a dark horse in the AFC.
Best Bet: Chiefs at $2.50
It’s tough to overlook Kansas City to win the AFC. They’ve been the conference’s premier team all year and have a near unstoppable offence. With their excellent home-field at Arrowhead, I expect to see Patrick Mahomes the first Sunday in February.
Value Bet: Chargers at $8.50
With such an excellent run to finish the season, bettors shouldn’t be sleeping on the Chargers either. Whilst they would need to win 3 tough road games, they’ve already shown their quality with road wins in Pittsburgh and Kansas City. Nothing will phase this team and I believe they look very strong value at $8.50.