Week 16 of the NFL Sunday Slate concludes with an exciting affair in Seattle as the 8-6 Seahawks play host to the Kansas City Chiefs. Both of these sides enter this matchup off tough narrow losses last week that put a dent in their playoff position. The Seahawks had their impressive 4-game winning streak snapped in San Francisco last week and will be looking to right the ship here. Kansas City also had a brutal loss to the Chargers last week and will be wanting to hold on to the AFC’s #1 seed. Let’s take a look at our 3 best bets on the board in another exciting instalment of Sunday Night Football.
Where to Watch: ESPN, 7 Mate or NFL Game Pass Monday 12:20 pm
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks enter this one in 8-6 and in pole position for the #5 seed in the NFC. QB Russell Wilson has had a very solid campaign, throwing for over 3000 yards and 31 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions. Receiver Doug Baldwin had one of his best games of the season last week, hauling in 2 touchdowns. RB Chris Carson has also been very impressive of late, running for 119 yards and a touchdown against San Francisco last week. Against a struggling Kansas City defence, the Seahawks offence has a real chance to bring this one home.
Defensively, the Seahawks have been largely very solid this season. The rush defence was solid against the 49ers last week, holding them to just 3.6 yards per attempt. That said, the pass defence struggled against Nick Mullens, allowing him to throw for an efficient 275 yards. Despite the loss of Earl Thomas, this Seahawks defence still has some solid playmakers. Bobby Wagner has been playing like the best Linebacker in the league, whilst Frank Clark has been a force on the interior. Against an elite KC offence, they’ll need to be at their best here.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs appear to have dipped in form of late, delivering less than stellar performances in each of their last 4 games. This has been despite the excellent performances from QB Patrick Mahomes, who’s thrown for over 4500 yards and 45 touchdowns so far. Tyreek Hill has been an outstanding option as a Receiver, totalling over 1300 yards and 11 touchdowns so far. Tight End Travis Kelce has been an excellent complement to Hill, totalling 1200 yards and 10 touchdowns so far. The loss of Kareem Hunt has really limited the rushing game however, which will need to improve this week.
Despite an improved showing last week, defence has been the Achilles heel for the Chiefs this season. After a promising first half, they faded in the second half last time out against the Chargers. They allowed 5 yards per carry and 2 touchdowns to their promising rushing attack, whilst Phillip Rivers had a strong day through the air. In the biggest games, this Chiefs defence has just failed to step up this season. They allowed an astounding 54 points in a loss to the Rams, allowing a further 43 in a defeat against New England. To pull out a crucial road win here, the defence just has to perform better.
Best Bets
Chiefs -2.5
Whilst this line has somewhat moved in the Chiefs favour, I still believe there is value on the AFC favourites laying less than a field goal here. In Patrick Mahomes, they have one of the league’s best Quarterbacks, one who’d be a rightful MVP. Despite their recent run of form, the Seahawks are yet to defeat what I’d consider to be an elite side. They’ve lost twice to the Rams this season and the Chiefs offence is just as good.
You’ve also got to factor the line value on Kansas City here. If this line was a fortnight ago, you’re looking at Chiefs -4.5 if not higher. I expect weapons like Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to prove too difficult for this Seahawks defence to consistently stop. If Kansas City can put up a solid showing on defence, I expect them to manage the road win and cover here.
Under 53.5 Points
Despite narrowly losing with a Chiefs under prediction last week, I still believe there’s some value on the under here. Whilst I do expect a solid showing from the Kansas City offence, eclipsing 27 or 30 points will prove difficult on the road here. As a run-heavy offence, the Seahawks are also very adept at controlling the clock and tempo of the game.
Even in the modern NFL, 53.5 points is a lot and requires several things to go right for the over to hit. As a point of reference, Seahawks games have gone under this total in 6 of their last 9 games. This one is very reminiscent of the recent Chiefs vs Ravens game, where the strong rushing game and defence of the Ravens helped push this one under.
Chiefs -1 1st Half
Tying in with the theme of recent weeks, I’m taking my full-game favourite over the 1st half. Whilst the Seahawks will be motivated in this one, I think Kansas City is desperate to hold on to the #1 seed here. Especially if the Chargers win on Sunday, I’m expecting a very motivated effort from the Chiefs in this one. Even with the focal Seattle crowd, this offence has the speed and talent to race out to an early lead. Andy Reid is an outstanding Coach who has regularly had his team well-prepared this season. Even in this run of poor form, the Chiefs have still covered the first half number in their past 4 contests.
Score Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs 27-24 Seattle Seahawks