Week 16 of the NFL season concludes in Oakland in a Christmas Day clash between two AFC West rivals. Santa unfortunately hasn’t been all that kind to us, with both of these sides well out of playoff contention. The Raiders enter this one at 3-11 and appear to be in very strong contention for the #1 overall pick. Denver, on the other hand, enter this one off two straight devastating losses to sit 6-8. Whilst it isn’t the best matchup on paper, there is definitely still value from a betting perspective. Let’s take a look at our 3 best bets on the board in this Christmas Day clash.
Where to Watch: ESPN or NFL Game Pass Monday 12:20 pm
Oakland Raiders
After a promising win over the Steelers a fortnight ago, Oakland enter this one off the back of a rather poor loss in Cincinnati last week. Despite facing a lot of criticism this season, QB Derek Carr has been largely solid. He’s thrown for over 3600 yards and 19 touchdowns so far, compared to a mere 8 interceptions. Doug Martin has become the de facto leader in the Running Back room after Marshawn Lynch’s injury, eclipsing 500 yards this season. Tight End Jared Cook has also emerged as a solid option in the passing game, totalling 848 yards and 6 touchdowns so far.
Defensively, Oakland have struggled for most of the season. This has been especially true of late, where they’ve allowed 30 or more points in 3 of their last 4. They struggled mightily in rush defence last week, allowing 129 yards and 2 touchdowns to Bengals RB Joe Mixon. The pass defence was significantly better, holding Jeff Driskel to just 130 passing yards on 33 attempts. Ultimately, this unit has been devoid of star talent since trading Khalil Mack to Chicago early in the season.
Denver Broncos
Despite a recent 4-game winning streak, the Broncos have largely struggled offensively this season. At the root of the issue is QB Case Keenum, who’s lack of deep-threat throwing ability has really hampered this offence. Despite some poor recent showings, rookie RB Phillip Lindsay has emerged as a future star, averaging 5.4 yards per carry and scoring 9 touchdowns this season. After the trade of Demaryius Thomas and injury to Emmanuel Sanders, this decimated Denver receiving corps has also struggled of late.
Whilst not at the quality of their recent Super Bowl winning unit, the Broncos defence has been very good this season. They haven’t allowed more than 24 points in each of their last 6 games. They’ve been led by pass-rushing phenom Von Miller, who now has 14.5 sacks this season. He has been supported nicely by rookie Bradley Chubb, who has 12 sacks of his own. As clearly the best of the 4 major units in this game, a quality showing from this Broncos defence should be enough for a win here.
Best Bets
Broncos -2.5
Despite their poor form in recent weeks, I think Denver is the significantly better team in this one. Unlike Oakland, who is in strong contention for the #1 pick, the Broncos have no real incentive to lose this one. Against a struggling Raiders offensive line, a defensive front featuring Miller, Chubb, and Aussie Adam Gotsis should prove too much to handle.
Similarly, I think the Broncos rush attack should be able to get going against a poor Raiders rush defence. Phillip Lindsay has had an excellent rookie season, which I expect him to build upon in primetime here. This will allow Case Keenum to get back to the game manager role that he was so effective in during their 4-game winning streak. Especially laying less than a field goal in this one, I have to think there is significant line value on the Broncos here.
Under 44.5 Points
Broncos games have very much trended towards the under of late, with 5 of their last 6 games going comfortably below this total. If Denver is going to win and cover this one, I believe it will be done primarily with their defence and rushing attack. Even with the injury to Chris Harris, the Broncos pass defence matches up very well with this Oakland passing attack. They should be able to get regular pressure on Derek Carr and limit Oakland’s scoring here.
On the other side of the ball, Case Keenum is never going to be one to consistently win shootouts. Aside from a defensive-led blowout against Arizona, the Broncos are yet to score over 30 points in a game this season. They tend to play complementary football and will look for an efficient and mistake-free display from their QB. The Oakland pass defence has also been much better of late and should do just enough to keep this one under 44.5.
Broncos 1st Half -1
Tying in with our Broncos full game bet, I believe the first half market is also too strong to ignore. Denver have been very strong starters of late, covering the closing 1st half line in 4 of their last 5 contests. With wins against teams like the Steelers and Chargers, this has definitely been against solid competition. Oakland, on the other hand, have struggled to get out of the blocks all season. They’ve been behind at the break in 6 of their 7 most recent contests. Ultimately, this is a value bet that correlates very strongly with our full-game prediction.
Score Prediction: Denver Broncos 20-17 Oakland Raiders