Week 15 of the NFL season concludes in Charlotte as the Carolina Panthers play host to the New Orleans Saints. After winning 6 of their first 8 games this season, the Panthers have collapsed and lost 5 straight. Conversely, the Saints have gone from strength to strength, winning 11 of their last 12 games. Both of these sides enter this match still in the NFC playoff picture; New Orleans competing for the #1 seed and the Panthers targeting a Wild Card. Let’s take a look at our 3 best bets on the board in this NFC South grudge match.
Where to Watch: ESPN or NFL Game Pass Tuesday 12:20 pm
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers enter this one off a disappointing road loss in Cleveland last week that leaves them at 6-7. QB Cam Newton appears to be battling a shoulder injury, having thrown just 2 touchdowns to 5 interceptions in the past fortnight. RB Christian McCaffrey is looking like a stud, totalling over 1600 yards from scrimmage and 13 touchdowns so far. Receiver Curtis Samuel has also emerged as one for the future, hauling in 10 catches for 168 yards over the past fortnight. Against an improving New Orleans defence, things won’t be easy for Carolina here.
Defensively, the Panthers have been a mixed bag this season. They struggled big time in Cleveland last week and just couldn’t seem to contain an upstart Browns offence. The pass defence in particular struggled, allowing Baker Mayfield to complete 18/22 passes for 238 yards and a score. Cleveland also ran on them with ease, averaging 5.5 yards per carry and scoring 2 touchdowns. Things don’t get any easier this week for Carolina against arguably the best offence in the NFL.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints got back on track last week, registering a 28-14 road victory over the Buccaneers. This was despite a less than stellar performance from the offence. Drew Brees delivered a relatively average display, averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt as he threw for only 201 yards. Receiver Michael Thomas continued his excellent campaign, adding 11 catches for 98 yards. The rushing offence wasn’t all that much better, only averaging 3.3 yards on their 30 attempts. With the combined talents of Ingram and Kamara, this is more than likely a once-off blip.
Defensively, I think the general public hasn’t caught on to how good New Orleans have been of late. They haven’t allowed more than 17 points in each of their last 5 games. Whilst the offence struggled in Tampa last week, they more than picked up the slack. Jameis Winston was allowed to complete only 18/38 passes for 213 yards, averaging just 5.6 yards per attempt in the process. Star pass rusher Cameron Jordan also managed two sacks as the Bucs pressured Winston all afternoon. If they can put up a similar display here, they’ve got a good chance to emerge victorious.
Best Bets
Panthers +6
Although they’ve struggled of late, I think there is strong line value on the Panthers here. Whilst they have lost each of their last 5, 4 of these have been tough road encounters. The Panthers are 5-1 at home this season, a 3-point defeat to Seattle being their only loss. New Orleans also appear to have dipped in form of late, delivering less than stellar performances in each of their last 3 games.
Only a half game back in the NFC playoff race, I also expect Carolina to be incredibly motivated for this one. Not only are they playing at home in primetime, but their season is essentially on the line here. These are two division rivals that always play each other tough and I expect the Panthers to keep this one competitive. Gaining support through the key numbers of 3, 4, and 6, I’m going to fade the public and take Carolina here.
Under 52.5
As I outlined earlier, I think the public are yet to catch on to the Saints strong defensive performances. They are a balanced unit on both ends that has held their last 5 opponents to 17 points or less. With Cam Newton’s injury holding back the Panthers offence of late, I just don’t see a high-scoring night for Carolina here. That said, the Saints offence also hasn’t been close to the excellent level they showed earlier this season.
Drew Brees has regressed slightly, failing to throw for a total of 500 yards over his last 3 games. Even the usually dynamic rushing attack hasn’t been the same, halted by both the Cowboys and Bucs defence over the past fortnight. The strength of this Carolina team is still their defence and I expect that to be on full display here. At 52.5 points, I just don’t think this line reflects the recent struggles that both of these offences have had.
Panthers 1st Half +3.5
Following on from the same theme of late, I’m very comfortable making a first half bet on my full-game lean. Whilst both of these sides will be very motivated here, I just don’t think this line reflects the Panthers excellent home-field advantage. Each of the 5 home victories the Panthers have had this season has been by a touchdown or more. Despite a 6-7 record, the fact that they’re well in playoff contention makes me think you’ll see a Panthers side that is willing to fight. Getting support through the key number of 3, I expect Carolina to keep this competitive early.
Score Prediction: New Orleans Saints 27-23 Carolina Panthers