We are officially passed the halfway point of the NFL season, with each team having completed their first 8 games. The season so far has created several surprises and disappointments as the playoff picture continues to become clearer. Kansas City and New England have emerged as the teams to beat in the AFC, whilst the LA Rams and New Orleans Saints played out a potential NFC Championship preview last week. With plenty to play for, there is again a ton of value on offer in the Week 10 Sunday slate. Let’s take a look at our best bet for each game and another very strong weekly multi.
Monday, November 12, 5am (AEDT), Soldier Field
Chicago Bears
The Bears enter this NFC North matchup at 5-3 after consecutive wins over the Jets and Bills. Despite last week’s poor showing, QB Mitchell Trubisky has been largely very good this season, throwing for 1949 yards and 16 scores. That said, it’s been the talented Bears defence that has carried this team so far. They completely destroyed Buffalo last week, allowing under 4 yards per pass attempt and forcing 4 turnovers. Roquan Smith, Danny Trevathan and Khalil Mack are a talented group of Linebackers that anchor this unit.
Detroit Lions
The 3-5 Lions travel to Chicago after disappointing losses to both the Seahawks and the Vikings. QB Matt Stafford’s performances have dipped a bit lately, failing to throw for 200 yards in Minnesota last week. RB Kerryon Johnson has been a bright spot for this unit, averaging 5.7 yards per carry through the first half of the campaign. After a slow start, Detroit’s defence has been fairly solid so far this season. Defensive Backs Glover Quin and Darius Slay lead a smothering secondary, whilst Defensive Lineman Ziggy Ansah and Damon Harrison are a threat to opposing offences up front.
Prediction: Lions +6.5
Whilst the Bears have been good this season, I don’t think their offensive performances warrant such a high line here. Given that Detroit’s season is essentially over with a loss here, I expect them to come out fighting and at least keep this one close. Bears 23-20 Lions.
Monday, November 12, 5am (AEDT), Paul Brown Stadium
Cincinnati Bengals
After a strong start to the campaign, the Bengals enter this huge matchup very much in AFC playoff consideration with a 5-3 record. In the absence of star Receiver AJ Green, RB Joe Mixon will need to pick up the slack and continue his very strong start to the season. The usually strong Cincinnati defence has struggled in recent weeks and faces a very tough test as New Orleans come to town. A replica of the 450 passing yards they allowed to Tampa Bay last time out and they may as well not show up here.
New Orleans Saints
The 7-1 Saints enter this inter-conference matchup after 7 straight wins, including against the Rams in the game of the season last week. QB Drew Brees delivered yet another masterclass, picking this Rams defence apart to the tune of 346 yards and 4 touchdowns. RB Alvin Kamara and Receiver Michael Thomas are also two young stars who have emerged as some of the best at their respective positions. On defence, the Saints have also largely been very good this season. In Cameron Jordan and Sheldon Rankins, they have two excellent defensive linemen that can wreak havoc on opposing offences.
Prediction: Saints -4.5
This is a bit of a trap game for the Saints, but they’ve showed their immense quality in each of the past 3 weeks. I think their explosive offence is far too much for the Bengals struggling defence, which will ultimately prove the difference here. Saints 31-24 Bengals.
Monday, November 12, 5am (AEDT), FirstEnergy Stadium
Cleveland Browns
After 4 straight losses, the Cleveland Browns are who we thought they were. QB Baker Mayfield has delivered some mixed performances so far but has definitely shown enough to be considered as the future of this offence. Defensively, the Browns have a ton of talent up front. In Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi, they have two excellent pass rushers that should be around for years to come. First round pick Denzel Ward is also emerging as a star defensive back.
Atlanta Falcons
After 3 straight victories, the 4-4 Falcons are right back in the thick of things. QB Matt Ryan has carried this team all season, with 2700 yards and 19 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions so far. In Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, he has an excellent set of complementary receivers to throw to. On defence, the Falcons have delivered two strong performances in a row. They shut down a usually dynamic rushing attack last week, also effectively limiting Alex Smith and the passing game.
Prediction: Falcons -4
Gregg Williams just isn’t fit to be a coach in the NFL. Whilst they started the season strongly, I just can’t see this Browns defence holding a high-powered Falcons offence that is flying right now. I expect the improving Falcons to come into Cleveland and get a win, for their first winning record of the season. Falcons 34-17 Browns.
Monday, November 12, 5am (AEDT), Nissan Stadium
Tennessee Titans
The 4-4 Titans are back on track after a big win in Dallas on Monday Night Football. QB Marcus Mariota led the way, throwing for 240 yards and 2 scores, adding a further score on the ground. Dual-threat RB Dion Lewis also had a solid outing, with 122 total yards and a score. Defensively, it was another impressive performance from this stout Titans front. They effectively limited Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys rushing attack, whilst also registering 5 sacks on QB Dak Prescott.
New England Patriots
The 7-2 Patriots travel to Tennessee of the back of 6 straight impressive victories. A strong rushing attack led the way against Green Bay last week, totalling 123 yards and 3 touchdowns. QB Tom Brady delivered another vintage display, registering 294 yards and a touchdown of his own. The improved Patriots defence also did an excellent job limiting Aaron Rodgers, allowing just 6 yards per attempt. Against a Titans passing attack that has largely struggled this season, I’m expecting another shutdown performance from this Pats secondary here.
Prediction: Patriots -6.5
Whilst the Titans did impress me on Monday Night Football, they simply aren’t at the same level as the Patriots. With the way Brady is playing, I think New England can have some success against this tough Tennessee defence. Especially under the key number of 7, there is great value on the Patriots here. Patriots 27-20 Titans.
Monday, November 12, 5am (AEDT), Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis Colts
After a poor 1-5 start, the Colts have bounced back in recent weeks with consecutive victories. QB Andrew Luck has been nearly flawless in these two outings, throwing for 7 touchdowns to no interceptions. It’s been resurgent performances from the Colts defence that has really lifted this team. They’ve allowed an average of just 16 points over these two games, forcing 5 turnovers in the process. Against a Jacksonville passing attack that has struggled at the best of times, this Colts defence will be looking to keep up their strong form here.
Jacksonville Jaguars
After a bright 3-1 start, the Jaguars enter this one off the back of 4 straight losses. Blake Bortles has been at the forefront of this collapse, throwing only 3 touchdowns to 5 interceptions and completing less than 60% of his throws over the past month. Even the vaunted Jaguars defence has somewhat faded, allowing 30 points to the Chiefs and 40 to the Cowboys. Eagles QB Carson Wentz carved them apart last time out, throwing for an efficient 286 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Prediction: Colts -3
After a poor start to the season, injuries have subsided, and the Colts have turned their season around. Against a Jacksonville side in complete disarray, I expect Andrew Luck to make enough plays to bring this one home. Colts 24-20 Jaguars.
Monday, November 12, 5am (AEDT), Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have emerged as a legit Superbowl contender this season en route to an impressive 8-1 record, comfortably beating Cleveland last week. QB Patrick Mahomes has had an excellent first 9 games, throwing for 2900 yards and 29 touchdowns so far. Receivers Tyreke Hill and Sammy Watkins, combined with Tight End Travis Kelce, make for one of the best sets of offensive weapons in the league. The Kansas City defence has also significantly improved in recent weeks, allowing an average of 18 points per game in their last 3. Their impressive pass rush will be licking their lips at the prospect of facing this struggling Arizona offence.
Arizona Cardinals
Two scrappy wins over the 49ers have made the Cardinals season look more impressive than it actually has been. QB Josh Rosen has largely struggled, completing only 55% of his passes and throwing just 5 touchdowns to his 6 interceptions so far. On defence, this Cardinals team has a fair amount of talent. Chandler Jones and Patrick Peterson are bona fide stars, whilst Free Safety Budda Baker is an emerging young talent.
Prediction: Chiefs -16.5
It’s one of the biggest spreads of the entire season, but not much scares me with this Kansas City offence in full swing. I expect the Chiefs defence to dominate this one, providing Mahomes and the offence with every opportunity to rack up the points. Chiefs 38-14 Cardinals.
Monday, November 12, 5am (AEDT), MetLife Stadium
New York Jets
After a promising 3-3 start, the Jets have fallen in their last 3 and now find themselves 3-6. QB Sam Darnold struggled mightily in Miami last week, averaging under 6 yards per attempt and throwing 4 picks last week. That said, Darnold has shown flashes that he can be the Jets QB of the future this season. Defensively, this Jets unit is very talented. They limited the Dolphins offence to under 200 yards last week and have allowed 17 points or less in 4 of their last 5. In Jamal Adams, they have one of the best young Safeties in the game, who is sure to be a future star.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills have had an absolutely dreadful 2018 season and now sit at 2-7 after 4 straight losses. The fact that they’ve failed to reach double digits in 5 of their 9 games so far tells you just how bad their offence has been so far. Whether it’s Nathan Peterman or Derek Anderson under centre, I just don’t know how this team scores. When they’ve actually been given an opportunity, this defence has looked good so far this season. In Jerry Hughes, Lorenzo Alexander and Tre’Davious White, they have the building blocks of a unit that can be solid in this league.
Prediction: Bills Total Under 14.5
Having failed to eclipse this total in each of their last 6 games, I’m fairly confident in the under here. Derek Anderson and Nathan Peterman are terrible options at QB and I think this solid Jets defence can limit them both. Unless the Bills defence can put up some points, this looks like a safe under. Jets 24-13 Bills.
Monday, November 12, 5am (AEDT), Arrowhead Stadium
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs enter this one at a precarious 3-5, having lost 5 of their last 6 games. Ryan FitzMagic took back the QB duties last week but was largely held quiet by a strong Carolina secondary. With a rushing attack that has struggled for most of the year, it will be on Receivers Desean Jackson and Mike Evans to carry this offence. On defence, Tampa Bay were gashed to the tune of 400 yards and 6 touchdowns by the Panthers last week. Their defence has been horrendous all season, conceding 30 points or more in 6 of their 8 games so far.
Washington Redskins
The Redskins enter this one at 5-3 after blowing a huge opportunity at home to Atlanta last week. QB Alex Smith has been solid yet unspectacular so far, enjoying a 3-1 touchdown to interception ratio. RB Adrian Peterson has carried this offence all year, enjoying 600 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground so far. Their usually stout defence was gouged to the tune of 500 yards and 5 touchdowns by the Falcons last week. Against a Bucs offence that loves to sling it, Josh Norman and Co will need to be back to their best this week.
Prediction: Redskins +3
Despite last week’s defeat, I remain high on this Redskins team. I think their rushing attack matches up very well with Tampa’s defence and don’t see why this line is so high. Especially with the 3 points, I’m confident the Redskins can keep this close, if not win it outright. Redskins 24-20 Buccaneers.
Monday, November 12, 8:05am (AEDT), Oakland Coliseum
Oakland Raiders
The 1-7 Raiders enter this one off the back of one of the worst losses of the season, getting absolutely destroyed by the 49ers and QB Nick Mullens. QB Derek Carr probably shed a tear again, as he was held under 200 passing yards for the second time in 3 games. With Marshawn Lynch out indefinitely and Amari Cooper having been traded, the Raiders offence will likely struggle for the rest of the season. Defensively, things haven’t been much better for Oakland. They’ve allowed 26 points in 7 of their games this season, with their lack of a pass rush being the main reason why. Against Phillip Rivers and the high-flying Chargers, I expect another long afternoon for Oakland here.
LA Chargers
After a shaky 1-2 start, the Chargers enter this AFC West matchup off the back of 5 straight victories. QB Phillip Rivers has had a very impressive campaign so far, throwing for 2200 yards and 19 touchdowns to only 3 interceptions. RB Melvin Gordon has also started the campaign strongly, with 860 total yards and 10 scores on the campaign. On defence, the Chargers have held their opponent under 20 points in each of the last 4 games. Melvin Ingram and Cory Liuget continue to be beasts up front, whilst DB Derwin James is having a great rookie campaign.
Prediction: Chargers -10
This is a big spread on the road, but I just can’t back Oakland after last week’s shambolic performance. This team plays with absolutely no fight, and the Chargers will be looking to maintain top spot in the AFC wildcard race. Chargers 34-17 Raiders.
Monday, November 12, 8:25am (AEDT), Lambeau Field
Green Bay Packers
The 3-4-1 Packers return to the safe confines of Lambeau Field after consecutive road losses to the Rams and Patriots. QB Aaron Rodgers has again been outstanding this year, averaging over 300 yards per game and throwing for 15 touchdowns to just 1 pick. The emergence of Aaron Jones in the rushing attack should complement receivers Davante Adams and Randall Cobb nicely. Defensively, the Packers have largely struggled this season, giving up at least 29 points in each of their last 4 games. The main culprit for this has been the poor secondary, which has gotten absolutely torched by Tom Brady and Jared Goff in the past fortnight.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins somehow enter this one at 5-4 after a scrappy home win over the Jets last week. Brock Osweiler has proven he isn’t the answer at QB, throwing for just 139 yards last week. Even the usually strong duo of Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake combined for just 62 yards on the ground. The immense Dolphins defence completely shut down Sam Darnold, forcing him into 4 interceptions. Impressive pass rushers Cameron Wake and Akeem Spence also combined for 4 sacks in a dominant display from the front seven.
Prediction: Packers -9.5
Even after last week’s win, I really don’t think this Dolphins team is as good as their record suggests. Brock Osweiler just won’t be able to cope with the Packers improving pass rush in this one, as Aaron Rodgers makes enough plays for the cover. Packers 31-20 Dolphins.
Monday, November 12, 8:25am (AEDT), Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
LA Rams
The previously unbeaten Rams suffered their first loss of the season, falling by 10 points in New Orleans last week. QB Jared Goff had another fine display, throwing for 391 yards and 3 scores. Todd Gurley also registered touchdown #16 of the season as he cements his status as the league’s premier back. Defensively, the Rams were destroyed by Drew Brees and the excellent Saints passing attack. Their fearsome pass rush couldn’t manage a single sack, whilst CB Brandon Peters gave up over 200 yards to Saints Wideout Michael Thomas.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks enter this one off a disappointing loss at home to the Chargers last week. QB Russell Wilson has again led a resurgent offence this season, completing two thirds of his passes for 18 scores so far. An improved rushing attack has also added a strong sense of balance to this unit. Defensively, Seattle simply couldn’t hang with the Chargers last week. They allowed over 7 yards per rush and 8.8 yards per pass attempt as they were outmatched. An even tougher test awaits them here against a talented and angry Rams offence.
Prediction: Over 51.5
With the Rams offence on an absolute tear right now, I’m expecting plenty of points here. Similarly, Seattle’s thriving deep passing attack should have some success against a struggling Rams secondary. Rams 34-24 Seahawks.
These are four teams that I have supreme confidence will win this week. Kansas City and LA come up against two of the league’s worst teams and should win comfortably. Similarly, Green Bay and the Rams will be looking to get right at home after poor losses last week.