NFL Week 5 Preview

NFL Week 5 Preview

Week 4 was another outstanding week of NFL action. We had more overtime games, more thrilling last-minute finishes and unfortunately more long-term injuries. With this in the rear-view mirror, we’re welcomed with another exciting slate of matchups in Week 5. Kansas City and Jacksonville looks to be the pick of the early games, whilst Philadelphia vs Minnesota represents an enticing rematch of last year’s NFC Championship. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the value on offer this week.

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers
Packers at the Line (-1)

Monday, October 84am (AEST), Ford Field

Detroit Lions 

The lions enter this matchup 1-3 after a narrow road loss to the Cowboys last week. QB Matt Stafford performed admirably in defeat, throwing for 307 yards and two touchdowns as he averaged over 10 yards per attempt. Receiver Golden Tate continued his strong start to the season, hauling in 132 yards and 2 scores of his own. Defensively, the Lions just couldn’t contain Zeke Elliott last week as he had 240 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. They’ll need to be stronger against the potent Packers offense led by star QB Aaron Rodgers. 

Green Bay Packers 

The Packers rebounded last week with a 22-0 shutout of the hapless Bills. Rodgers delivered another stellar performance as he threw for 298 yards and a touchdown, whilst Aaron Jones had 65 yards and a score on the ground. Defensively, it was a perfect display from the Packers. They sacked Bills QB Josh Allen 7 times and picked him off twice in a dominant effort. The run defence was just as stout, holding star RB LeSean McCoy to just 24 yards on 5 carries. 

Prediction: Packers -1 

This line seems to be a trap but there is too much value on the Packers to pass up. I expect Aaron Rodgers and Co to put up another stellar performance at Ford Field as the defence does just enough to hold on. Packers 27-21 Lions. 

Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans
Over 38.5 Points

Monday, October 84am (AEST), New Era Field 

Buffalo Bills 

Things can’t get worse for the Bills after last week’s demolition by the Packers. Josh Allen had his ‘welcome to the NFL’ moment in a truly disastrous start, whilst McCoy couldn’t get anything going on the ground. It wasn’t much better defensively as the Packers cruised to 423 yards of offense as part of a balanced attack. Nevertheless, I expect a front seven led by Jerry Hughes and Lorenzo Alexander to be back to their best this week. 

Tennessee Titans 

The Titans proved me right last week with an upset win over the defending champion Eagles. QB Marcus Mariota put the team on his back in his return. He showed off his dual-threat ability with 344 yards and 2 touchdowns through the air to go along with 46 yards and a score on the ground. The strong Titans defence then did just enough to hold off the Eagles in overtime. An extremely talented and balanced unit, this Titans defence could be in for a treat against the vulnerable Bills offense. 

Prediction: Over 38.5 

Given the Bills dreadful offensive showing last week, I believe there is a bit of line value in this total. Mariota looked strong last week whilst the Titans defence may be a bit fatigued off last week’s intense battle. Titans 24-21 Bills. 

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons
Under 57.5 Points

Monday, October 84am (AEST), Heinz Field 

Pittsburgh Steelers 

The Steelers face another tough test this week after getting manhandled at home by the rival Baltimore Ravens. Ben Roethlisberger was underwhelming by his standards, averaging only 5.8 yards per attempt. Le’Veon Bell was no doubt missed as replacement RB James Conner rushed for just 19 yards on 9 carries. Defensively, the Steelers were exposed by Ravens QB Joe Flacco to the tune of 363 yards and 2 touchdowns. Receiver John Brown torched their defence deep en route to 38.7 yards per catch and a touchdown. 

Atlanta Falcons 

The Falcons lost another heartbreaker last week in a 37-36 home loss to the Bengals. QB Matt Ryan remained at his best, throwing for 419 yards and 3 scores. Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu both had 100-yard days, whilst Calvin Ridley managed two touchdowns on his own. Defensively, the Falcons porous pass defence was on display again, giving up 337 yards and 2 scores to Andy Dalton. The running defence wasn’t much better, allowing Gio Bernard to go for 69 yards and 2 touchdowns. 

Prediction: Under 57.5 

It seems the oddsmakers forgot the Steelers haven’t scored a 2nd half touchdown in either of the past two weeks. Away from the dome, I don’t see the Falcons putting up the same numbers this week. For me, the total is 6-7 points too high. Falcons 27-24 Steelers. 

Carolina Panthers vs New York Giants
Panthers HT/FT Double

 Monday, October 84am (AEST), Bank of America Stadium 

Carolina Panthers 

The Panthers enter Week 5 off of a relaxing bye. Their last outing in Week 3 was a comfortable home win against the Bengals where Cam Newton had 4 total touchdowns. Star RB Christian McCaffrey also dominated on the ground to the tune of 184 yards. The stout Panthers defence showed up yet again, picking off QB Andy Dalton 4 times. Coming up against a weak Giants offense, I expect big things from the Panthers defence this week. 

New York Giants 

Fresh off of a poor home loss to the Saints, the Giants face a tough test at Carolina this week. QB Eli Manning averaged just 6.2 yards per pass attempt, whilst rookie phenom Saquon Barkley couldn’t get anything going on the ground. The Giants rushing defence was gashed by Saints RB Alvin Kamara to the tune of 134 yards and 3 touchdowns. This will need to improve this week against the two-headed monster of Newton and McCaffrey. 

Prediction: Panthers HT/FT Double 

Fresh off of the bye last week, I expect a strong Panthers performance here. They have the talent advantage and a strong matchup edge with their dominant rushing attack. Carolina to cruise to victory here. Panthers 27-17 Giants. 

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Jags at the Line (+3.5)

Monday, October 84am (AEST), Arrowhead Stadium 

Kansas City Chiefs 

The legend of Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes continues to grow after last week’s comeback victory on Monday Night Football. Mahomes managed 304 yards and a touchdown in another professional performance. RB Kareem Hunt also got back on track with 121 yards and a score. Defensively, the Chiefs secondary contained Broncos QB Case Keenum well. However, they were gashed on the ground to the tune of 159 yards and 2 touchdowns. This will have to be better this week against a strong Jaguars rushing attack. 

Jacksonville Jaguars 

The Jaguars got back on track last week with a dominant home win over the Jets. Blake Bortles was back to his best, throwing for 388 yards and two touchdowns. The usually strong running game did struggle however, as both TJ Yeldon and Leonard Fournette averaged under 3 yards per carry. Defensively, the Jaguars did a great job shutting down the Jets. They held QB Sam Darnold under 5 yards per attempt and allowed less than 180 yards of total offence. The Chiefs offense is a different beast, but the Jaguars defence is more than up to the challenge. 

Prediction: Jaguars +3.5 

Going through the key number of 3 here represents good value for the Jaguars. They are the better team and have the more balanced roster of the two teams. I expect a dominant defensive display en route to a close win. Jaguars 21-20 Chiefs. 

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens
Ravens at the Line (-3)

Monday, October 84am (AEST), FirstEnergy Stadium 

Cleveland Browns 

Winless a year ago, there is a strong argument that the Browns could be 4-0 this season, coming off of a controversial loss to the Raiders. Baker Mayfield looked solid in his first start, throwing for 295 yards and two touchdowns. The two-headed rushing attack of Carlos Hyde and Nick Chubb also combined for 187 yards and 3 touchdowns. Defensively, the Browns had their worst performance of the year, allowing 45 total points. QB Derek Carr had 437 yards and 4 touchdowns, whilst RB Marshawn Lynch managed a further 130 rushing yards. This will need to improve this week against a firing Ravens offense. 

Baltimore Ravens 

The Ravens pulled off one of the best performances of Week 4, crushing the rival Steelers on their own home turf. Joe Flacco continued his strong start to the season, throwing for 363 yards and 2 touchdowns. All this offense needs is RB Alex Collins to get going to take it to the next level. Defensively, the Ravens were very strong and allowed 0 second half points. Linebackers C.J. Mosley and Terrell Suggs eliminated the Steelers rushing attack, whilst Safeties Tony Jefferson and Eric Weddle limited the passing offense. 

Prediction: Ravens -3 

I’ve been high on the Ravens all season and last week’s performance cemented them as a contender in my eyes. With a talent advantage on both sides of the ball, I expect a professional performance as the Ravens win a competitive game here. Ravens 24-17 Browns. 

New Yorks Jets vs Denver Broncos
Over 4.5 Touchdowns

 Monday, October 84am (AEST), MetLife Stadium 

New York Jets 

The Jets return home after an embarrassing 31-12 loss to the Jaguars last week. Rookie QB Sam Darnold struggled to generate offense in the passing game, whilst the rushing attack averaged only 2.4 yards per carry. Defensively, the Jets were carved open by often maligned Jaguars QB Blake Bortles. Against a weak Broncos offense, I expect a stronger performance from Jamal Adams, Darron Lee and Co this week. 

Denver Broncos 

Fresh off of a heartbreaking home loss to the Chiefs, the Broncos will look to get their season back on track this week. QB Case Keenum was again unspectacular last week, throwing for 245 yards and an interception. Look for the Broncos to use more of Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman in the running game this week. Defensively, the Broncos were able to somewhat contain Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs last week. They’ll look to put in a similar performance against a Jets offense that has looked vulnerable this season. 

Prediction: Over 4.5 Touchdowns at $2.08 

$2.08 represents good value for over 4.5 touchdowns to be scored in this one. Both teams have shown defensive frailties at times this season, whilst the offenses have shown flashes. Expect 5-6 touchdowns in this evenly matched affair. Jets 24-20 Broncos. 

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins
Dolphins at the Line (+7)

Monday, October 84am (AEST), Paul Brown Stadium 

Cincinnati Bengals 

The Bengals pulled off a surprising upset last week with a last-minute winner in Atlanta. QB Andy Dalton led the way with 337 yards and two touchdowns, whilst RB Gio Bernard chipped in with a further 69 rushing yards and two scores. However, the defence simply has to perform better than they did last week after getting carved open by Falcons QB Matt Ryan. Expect a strong front seven led by Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap to do a better job containing Ryan Tannehill and Co. 

Miami Dolphins 

After their hot 3-0 start, the Dolphins got a dose of reality last week in a 38-7 loss to the Patriots. Ryan Tannehill could only manage 100 yards and a pick through the air, which also made it difficult to get things going in the running game. It wasn’t much better on defence as the balanced Patriots attack dominated them in all facets. Given their strong first three performances, I expect this unit led by Kiko Alonso, Reshad Jones and Minkah Fitzpatrick to perform better this week. 

Prediction: Dolphins +7 

After last week’s performances, I feel as though there is some line value in the Dolphins +7 here. I expect their strong defence to contain the Bengals, whilst Tannehill does enough to keep things close offensively. Bengals 23-20 Dolphins. 

LA Chargers vs Oakland Raiders
Chargers 1-13

Monday, October 87:05am (AEST), StubHub Center 

Los Angeles Chargers 

The Chargers enter week 5 off of a hard-fought home win over the 49ers last week. Phillip Rivers led the way with 3 passing touchdowns, whilst RB Melvin Gordon managed 159 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. On defence, the Chargers were solid yet unspectacular last week. Rookie Safety Derwin James continues to flash, with seven tackles and a sack last week. Two vital interceptions also proved key to the victory. 

Oakland Raiders 

Jon Gruden got his first win in his Raiders coaching return in a controversial game against the Browns last week. Derek Carr put the team on his back to the tune of 437 yards and 4 touchdowns. Receiver Amari Cooper and Tight End Jared Cook both had great afternoons, combining for 238 yards and 3 touchdowns. Defensively, the Raiders will have to improve from their recent horror showings. If they fail to do so, Rivers has the weapons at his disposal to truly take advantage. 

Prediction: LA Chargers 1-13 at $2.45 

This is the exact type of game that the Chargers always seem to make hard work of. Whilst I’m confident that the Chargers will take home the victory, I expect Gruden and Carr to do enough offensively to keep it close. Chargers 31-24 Raiders. 

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals at the Line (+4.5)

 Monday, October 87:25am (AEST), Levi’s Stadium 

San Francisco 49ers 

The 49ers put up a strong display last week in the first game without Jimmy G, falling by 2 points to the Chargers. CJ Beathard filled in admirably, throwing for 298 yards and 2 touchdowns on the afternoon. Tight End George Kittle continues to show his value, going for 125 yards and a touchdown of his own. Defensively, the 49ers have been solid yet unspectacular this season. After a promising start last week, they struggled to contain Chargers RB Melvin Gordon. Coming up against a vulnerable Arizona offense may be just what they need to turn things around.  

Arizona Cardinals 

The Cardinals put in their best display of the season last week, narrowly falling to the Seahawks at home. QB Josh Rosen was solid in his debut, throwing for 180 yards and a score. With David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald leading the way, Rosen can be thrust into more of a game manager type role. The Cardinals were again solid defensively last week and did a good job containing Russell Wilson. With a host of injuries on the 49ers offensive line, expect this front seven to pile on the pressure this week. 

Prediction: Cardinals +4.5  

I just can’t see the logic in favouring a team led by CJ Beathard by 4.5 points. This should be a competitive defensive battle where points are at a premium. Going through the key lines of 3 and 4, I’ll take the Cardinals here. Cardinals 20-17 49ers. 

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams
Seahawks at the Line (+7.5)

Monday, October 87:25am (AEST), CenturyLink Field

Seattle Seahawks 

After back-to-back wins, the Seahawks face a tough challenge this week against the in-form Rams. QB Russell Wilson has performed admirably this year, throwing for 888 yards and 7 touchdowns in total. RB Mike Davis added a much-needed boost to the Seahawks rushing game last week, going for 101 yards and 2 scores on the ground. Whilst the Seahawks defence has improved in recent weeks, they’ll face a tough battle without All-Pro Safety Earl Thomas. A front seven led by Frank Clark and Bobby Wagner will need to be at their best this week to contain a dominant Rams offense. 

Los Angeles Rams 

The Rams cemented their status as the NFL’s form team, with a strong display against the Minnesota Vikings last week. QB Jared Goff was phenomenal, throwing for 465 yards and 5 touchdowns as he delivered a perfect passer rating. Running Back Todd Gurley and Receiver Brandin Cooks have combined with Goff to form a star offensive trio this season. The typically stout Rams defensive front struggled somewhat against the Vikings last week. They managed to shut down the running game but were carved open by Kirk Cousins through the air. Against a weak Seahawks offensive line, Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh may enjoy a field day. 

Prediction: Seahawks +7.5 

Whilst their talent has waned in recent years, the Seahawks home field advantage is still as strong as always. I expect that their defence will do enough to contain Jared Goff and Co, whilst Russell Wilson ensures they compete offensively. Rams 30-24 Seahawks. 

Philadelphia Eagles vs Minnesota Vikings
Vikings at the Line (+3.5)

Monday, October 87:25am (AEST), Lincoln Financial Field 

Philadelphia Eagles 

The Eagles head into this one off of a crushing OT loss to the Titans last week. QB Carson Wentz performed solidly and threw for 348 yards and 2 scores on the afternoon. Tight End Zach Ertz and Receiver Alshon Jeffery both also chipped in with 100 yard receiving days. On defense, the stout Eagles front struggled with the dual-threat ability of Titans QB Marcus Mariota. Against a big-play Vikings offense, Fletcher Cox, Malcolm Jenkins and Co will need to be at their best this week. 

Minnesota Vikings 

The Vikings head into this NFC Championship rematch in a precarious 1-1-2 position. QB Kirk Cousins has put up strong numbers this season, throwing for 1387 yards and 10 touchdowns on the season. Receivers Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen have also combined for one of the best pass catching duos in the league. The typically strong Vikings defence has been surprisingly poor this season, especially against the Rams last week. That being said, I expect a unit led by Harrison Smith, Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr to put in a strong performance this week.  

Prediction: Vikings +3.5  

With the rest advantage and revenge factor after last season, I think the Vikings are great value here. I expect a vintage defensive performance and Kirk Cousins to bring it home offensively. Vikings at the line and straight up here. Vikings 24-20 Eagles.