Week 5 kicks off in Foxborough as Tom Brady and the Patriots welcome Andrew Luck and the Colts. The Patriots got right last week in a dominating 38-7 win over the division rival Miami Dolphins. Alternatively, the Colts head into this one off of a crushing home loss to the Texans in overtime. Entering this difficult matchup with a 1-3 record, the Colts season is essentially on the line here. The Patriots also have a lot to play for and have the opportunity to go atop the AFC East with a victory this week.
Where to Watch: ESPN, 7 Mate or NFL Game Pass on Friday 10:20 am
New England Patriots
The Pats offense was back to their best last week, racing out to an impressive 24-0 halftime lead. This was unsurprisingly led by veteran QB Tom Brady, who threw for 274 yards and 3 scores against a relatively stout Dolphins defence. The running game also finally got going in Week 4, to the tune of 175 yards and 2 touchdowns. Rookie Running Back and first round pick Sony Michel led the way, with 112 yards and a score of his own. Veteran James White showcased his dual-threat ability in the backfield, enjoying 112 yards from scrimmage and 2 touchdowns.
Defensively, the Patriots were back to their ferocious best against Miami. They held the Dolphins to 7 points and only 116 yards through the air, containing Ryan Tannehill to 5 yards per attempt. The dangerous Receiving duo of Kenny Stills and Danny Amendola was held in check by a strong Pats secondary, whilst future Hall of Fame Running Back Frank Gore was contained by the front seven. Led by Devin McCourty, Dont’a Hightower and Patrick Chung, I expect a strong showing from the Pats defence against a vulnerable Colts offense.
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback Andrew Luck had his best outing of the season against the Texans last week, throwing for 464 yards and 4 touchdowns as the Colts nearly pulled off the comeback. Deep threat Receiver T.Y. Hilton led the way with 115 yards through the air, whilst Running Back Nyheim Hines enjoyed 9 receptions and two touchdowns on the afternoon. Whilst Luck has performed admirably, the Colts have struggled to employ a balanced offence this season. Starting Running Back Jordan Wilkins has struggled with only 136 yards on the season at 3.6 yards per carry,
The Colts strong defensive start to the season was tarnished last week as they were carved apart by Texans QB Deshaun Watson. Watson enjoyed 375 yards and 2 touchdowns through the air, in addition to his 41 rushing yards and touchdown. The Colts secondary was also no match for Texans Receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who had 169 yards and a touchdown on the afternoon. Against a potent Patriots offense that appears to be back to its best, the Colts front seven will need to deliver a strong performance to have any chance of the upset.
Best Bets
Pats Half Time/Full Time Double
Having to travel off of a short week and drawn out overtime game, the odds are stacked against the Colts here. Buoyed by their impressive home crowd and in front of a national audience, I expect the Pats to get off to a fast start here. They definitely have the offensive firepower to put up points early and can then put pressure on the Colts one-dimensional offense. With a potential 2-3 start staring them in the face, I just can’t see them losing either.
It’s a bit of a short price at $1.55 but given their status as a 10.5-point favourite, I believe this bet represents good value. After an early season blip, I can’t see Brady and Co putting in another disastrous performance at home. They have the matchup advantage on both sides of the ball, which I expect to see on full display early. I also back the ability of renowned Head Coach Bill Belichick to produce a quality game plan on a short week.
Colts +10.5
Going through the key number of 10, I see some line value on the Colts here. Whilst a lot of logistics are against them, I expect a sense of urgency and desperation as they fight for their season here. They’ve been competitive in every game this season and played the Superbowl champion Eagles close just a fortnight ago. This line suggests to me that many bettors are overreacting to last week’s performances. Whilst I’m predicting a win for the Pats, 10.5 points represents too many to pass up.
Given the performances of the Colts front seven this season, I believe they can have some success against this questionable Patriots offensive line. If they can hold the Patriots to 30 or less, I expect Andrew Luck to put up enough points for the cover. A backdoor cover with this type of point spread is also very much in play. The Colts could be down 17 and score a garbage time touchdown that covers this spread.
Patriots 1-13 at $2.55
Tying in with the above two bets, I’m tripling down with Patriots 1-13 at a very tidy $2.55. Remember that this is the same Patriots team that was made to look like a Pop Warner side by the lowly Detroit Lions just a fortnight ago. Whilst I expect the Patriots to get out to a fast start, the majority of outcomes I predict for this game end up in the Patriots 1-13-point win range. In fact, I’d suggest the likelihood of this is around 50%. As such, getting $2.55 represents immense value that will provide a strong ROI over the long term.
Best Bet: Patriots Half Time/ Full Time Double
Ultimately, there are too many forces against the Colts here for me to pick them to win. The travel off a short week, fatigue from an overtime game and difficult home environment all shape up as positives for the Pats. I’m predicting a relatively comfortable home win for the Pats, whilst the Colts keep it competitive late.
Score Prediction: Patriots 27-20 Colts