With the NBA preseason getting under way this past Saturday, it’s time to turn our attention to some NBA futures bets, starting with the season win totals. These are one of my favourite types of futures bets to make each season due to the high ROI potential. For those who’ve paid attention throughout the off-season and understand some historic trends, there is some significant value to be had on teams in both conferences. At the top end, the back-to-back defending champion Golden State Warriors have a projected total of 62.5 wins, whilst the Atlanta Hawks round out the rear with a projected 23.5 wins. Without further ado, here are my top 9 season win total plays for the 2018/19 season.
Utah Jazz – Over 49.5
Projected Starting Five: PG: Ricky Rubio, SG: Donovan Mitchell, SF: Joe Ingles, PF: Derrick Favors, C: Rudy Gobert
Key Reserves: PG: Dante Exum, SG: Thabo Sefolosha, SF: Jae Crowder
The Jazz are fresh off of an incredible second half of the 2017/18 season. After looking destined for the lottery at the midway point, Utah managed to claim the 5th seed by season’s end and knock off the favoured OKC Thunder in Round 1. Led by Rookie Donovan Mitchell and Aussie veteran Joe Ingles, this upstart Jazz unit played the Rockets tough in the Conference Semis, ultimately losing a hard-fought series in 5 games. Given both the top-end talent and outstanding depth that this team possesses, I predict that they will comfortably reach at least 50 wins with several games to spare.
For me, the Jazz are undoubtedly one of the strongest teams in the Western Conference. They have an incredibly balanced starting five, one of the deepest rosters in the NBA and a very strong home court advantage. I expect Center Rudy Gobert to have another phenomenal season patrolling the paint, whilst second year man Donovan Mitchell takes the next step to becoming a superstar. Similarly, I predict Aussies Joe Ingles and Dante Exum to both play important roles for the Jazz this season en route to claiming the Northwest division crown. Combine all of these factors and I’m very confident in betting the Jazz over 49.5 wins here.
Toronto Raptors – Over 54.5
Projected Starting Five: PG: Kyle Lowry, SG: Danny Green, SF: Kawhi Leonard, PF: Serge Ibaka, C: Jonas Valanciunas
Key Reserves: PG: Fred VanVleet, SF: OG Anunoby, C: Greg Monroe
Coming off an incredible season where the Raptors won 59 games and only got better this off-season, a total of 54.5 seems very low to me. Star Small Forward Kawhi Leonard heads to town with a ton to prove after his unceremonious exit from San Antonio. Kawhi was arguably the second best player in the NBA in his last full season, trailing only Back-to-Back Finals MVP Kevin Durant. A starting unit containing Lowry, Green, Leonard and Ibaka is also sure to be one that is very strong defensively, suffocating the weak Eastern Conference offences.
This is complemented nicely by a bench unit that was one of the best in the NBA last season. I expect units featuring Fred Van Vleet, CJ Miles and OG Anunoby to only build off of the strong leads that the starters build. On par with the Celtics as the two best teams in the East, I’m predicting a very strong season from both Kawhi and the Raptors collectively. Given how weak the East is, eclipsing 60 wins is very much in play. As such, this is a very easy over bet for me to make.
Los Angeles Lakers – Under 49.5
Projected Starting Five: PG: Lonzo Ball, SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SF: Brandon Ingram, PF: LeBron James, C: JaVale McGee
Key Reserves: PG: Rajon Rondo, SG: Lance Stephenson, PF: Kyle Kuzma
The Los Angeles Lakers head into the 2018/19 season off of an improved year which saw them win 35 games. Small Forward Brandon Ingram took the next step forward in his development, whilst Rookie Kyle Kuzma provided a nice scoring spark off the bench. The big development for the Lakers this offseason was acquiring Star Forward LeBron James, fresh off of an NBA Finals sweep to the champion Golden State Warriors. A sneaky good bet for the past few seasons has been betting the under on the win totals of LeBron’s Cavs teams. They again performed under expectations last season, grinding their way to a 50-32 season.
Keep in mind that this was with a better supporting cast and against weaker Eastern Conference competition. Faced with the tougher competition out west, LeBron and his teammates won’t be able to afford any nights off. This increased competition, coupled with an overly enthusiastic Lakers fan base, creates an inflated line that has some good value on the under. Whilst I do see the Lakers making the playoffs this season, I think that 50 wins is just too much for LeBron and this unproven supporting cast. As such, under 49.5 wins is a bet I’m very comfortable making.
Milwaukee Bucks – Over 46.5
Projected Starting Five: PG: Eric Bledsoe, SG: Malcolm Brogdon, SF: Khris Middleton, PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo, C: Brook Lopez
Key Reserves: SG: Pat Connaughton, SF: Tony Snell, PF: Ersan Ilyasova
Buoyed by the addition of new Head Coach Mike Budenholzer and starting Center Brook Lopez, the Milwaukee Bucks have big expectations this season. Last season was solid yet unspectacular for the Bucks, finishing with 44 wins and losing a hard fought 7-game series to the #2 seed Celtics. Giannis took his game to a whole new level, averaging 26.9 points per game and establishing himself as one of the best players in the NBA. I expect him and Khris Middleton to both build off their strong campaigns and lead the Bucks to a top four seed in the East.
Another area where the Bucks improved significantly was at Head Coach. Consistently regarded as one of the worst coaches in the NBA, former Point Guard Jason Kidd is out, whilst 2015 Coach of the Year Mike Budenholzer is in. I expect Budenholzer to have this Bucks team well coached and cut out some of the costly mistakes that plagued them last season. Improved coaching, coupled with the internal development of their young players, has me confident that the Bucks will push for 50 wins and exceed this 46.5 total.
Miami Heat Over – 41.5
Projected Starting Five: PG: Goran Dragic, SG: Tyler Johnson, SF: Josh Richardson, PF: James Johnson, C: Hassan Whiteside
Key Reserves: SG: Dwyane Wade, SF: Justice Winslow, C: Kelly Olynyk
The Miami Heat are fresh off of a solid 2017/18 season that saw them win 44 regular season games and make their way back to the playoffs. Unfortunately, they were hen overmatched by star Aussie Ben Simmons and his Philadelphia 76ers teammates. Led by Point Guard Goran Dragic and Head Coach Erik Spoelstra, you can always expect this Heat team to play hard. They are rarely outworked by opposing teams and always put in professional performances against the Eastern-Conference also-rans.
Given the glut of terrible teams in the East this season, I expect Miami to build off their solid 2017/18 season and eclipse this relatively low 41.5 win total. They have very strong depth throughout the roster and a phenomenal defence that will travel well in the regular season. Their coaching edge, coupled with strong depth and a good home court advantage will see the Heat around 45 wins this season.
New York Knicks – Under 29.5
Projected Starting Five: PG: Trey Burke, SG: Courtney Lee, SF: Tim Hardaway Jr, PF: Mario Hezonja, C: Enes Kanter
Key Reserves: PG: Frank Ntilikina, PF: Lance Thomas, Kristaps Porzingis (injured)
The New York Knicks head into 2018/19 fresh off of a disappointing 29 win season. They managed to acquire well respected head coach David Fizdale in the offseason but will be without star Power Forward Kristaps Porzingis indefinitely after his ACL tear last season. On paper, this is definitely one of the least talented rosters in the entire NBA. They lack a real playmaker in the backcourt and will struggle immensely against some of the best forwards the league has to offer.
The bench is also nothing to write home about, with second year Point Guard Frank Ntilikina the only real bright spot at this point. In what should be a rebuilding season for the Knicks, I believe this total is way too high. This commonly occurs with Knicks season win totals as the bullish New York crowd heavily bets the over regardless of the line. Bang that under with confidence I say as the Knicks only win around 25 games this year.
Houston Rockets – Over 55.5
Projected Starting Five: PG: Chris Paul, SG: James Harden, SF: James Ennis, PF: PJ Tucker, C: Clint Capela
Key Reserves: SG: Eric Gordon, SF: Carmelo Anthony, C: Nene
The Rockets head in to the 2018/19 season after one of their best seasons in recent memory. They were the #1 seed in the competitive Western Conference, notching up an impressive 65 wins in the process. However, this wasn’t enough to take down the Goliath Golden State Warriors as they fell in a hard-fought 7 game series. Shooting Guard James Harden is fresh of the best season of his career in which he earned the regular season MVP award. The Rockets were also able to lock down some of their core, signing Chris Paul and Clint Capela to long term extensions.
A common narrative surrounding this past off-season was that the Houston Rockets got substantially worse after the losses of Forwards Trevor Ariza and Luc-Richard Mbah a Moute. Whilst I believe these losses will somewhat hurt the Rockets, this line is just too low for a team that comfortably won 65 games last season. The common statistic that gets pointed to is that the Rockets were 41-3 last season in games where James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Capela all played. Assuming decent health for the Rockets this year, I expect them to win around 60 games.
Dallas Mavericks – Over 33.5
Projected Starting Five: PG: Dennis Smith, SG: Luka Doncic, SF: Wesley Matthews, PF: Harrison Barnes, C: DeAndre Jordan
Key Reserves: PG: JJ Barea, PF: Dirk Nowitzki, C: Salah Mejri
The Mavericks head into this season off of a disappointing year where they won just 24 games. They were plagued throughout the campaign by unfortunate injuries and owner Mark Cuban was surprisingly open about their plans to tank the season. Rick Carlisle remains one of the top coaches in the NBA and I expect him to make the most of the improved roster at his disposal this season.
Look for Point Guard Dennis Smith to take a step forward this season as backcourt mate Luka Doncic takes some of the responsibility off of his plate. New acquisition DeAndre Jordan provides a solid veteran presence and ads some much needed rim protection to Dallas’ porous defence last season. Harrison Barnes and Wesley Matthews are also a strong forward duo that are very capable on both ends of the floor. In what is potentially franchise legend Dirk Nowitzki’s last seasons, I expect Dallas to reach the high 30’s in wins this season.
Indiana Pacers – Under 47.5
Projected Starting Five: PG: Darren Collison, SG: Victor Oladipo, SF: Bojan Bogdanovic, PF: Thaddeus Young, C: Myles Turner
Key Reserves: PG: Cory Joseph, SG: Tyreke Evans, PF: Domantas Sabonis
The Pacers come into 2018 off of a surprising season where they exceeded all expectations en route to 48 regular season wins. They also produced an incredible playoff series against the Cavaliers in the first round, narrowly falling short in a 7 game thriller. Shooting Guard Victor Oladipo had a breakout season, making it to his first all-star game in the process.
The Pacers have a well-balanced starting five and have added to their bench nicely this off-season with the acquisitions of Tyreke Evans and Doug McDermott. Whilst the Pacers were impressive last season, these 48 wins greatly outperformed their point differential. Even if they play as well as they did last season, I’d expect the Pacers to win roughly 45 games unless they can go crazy in the clutch yet again. As such, I think there’s some decent value on the Under 47.5 here.