Week 3 of the NFL season gets underway in Cleveland, where we have the Browns hosting the New York Jets. The Browns are coming off an agonizing 21-18 loss to the Saints in which Kicker Zane Gonzales missed two field goals and two extra points. After a fast start in Week 1, the Jets come into this game off a disappointing 20-12 home loss to Miami. Whilst it probably won’t be the most glamorous affair, there are a few interesting wrinkles to this game from a betting perspective.
Where to Watch: ESPN, 7 Mate or NFL Game Pass at 10:20am Friday
Cleveland Browns
The Browns offense has largely struggled in the first two weeks of the season. New Quarterback Tyrod Taylor brings hope to this unit, but he is still clearly coming to grips with the new offense Aside from a few Taylor scrambles, they just haven’t been able to get the running game going. This will need to change against a Dolphins defence that was gouged for 135 yards on the ground last week. Receiver Jarvis Landry has been the focal point of the Browns offense this season, and I expect his usage to increase even further following the departure of the enigmatic Josh Gordon.
Defensively, the Browns have been great to start the season. They’ve held two of the most high-powered offenses in the league to only 21 points each. They were particularly impressive in Week 1, picking off Pro-Bowl QB Ben Roethlisberger 3 times. Defensive lineman Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi have formed a nice partnership up front, combining for 5 sacks on the year. Similarly, Rookie Denzel Ward is beginning to make a name for himself, with 12 tackles and 2 picks so far this season.
New York Jets
After a great start in Week 1, the Jets offense really struggled to get going last week. They managed only 42 rushing yards and 1 touchdown in QB Sam Darnold’s home debut. Receiver Quincy Enunwa remained a bright spot in an otherwise anaemic offense, hauling in 7 receptions for 92 yards. New acquisition Terrelle Pryor complimented him well on the outside with 84 receiving yards of his own. To have a chance against this strong Browns front 7, Running Back Isaiah Crowell will need to get back to his Week 1 form that saw him rush for over 100 yards and 2 scores.
Conversely, the opportunistic Jets defence has gotten off to a great start to the season. They’ve forced 7 turnovers in their first 2 outings and even enjoyed a pick-six from Linebacker Darron Lee. An exciting secondary featuring star Safety Jamal Adams as well as Cornerbacks Buster Skrine and Trumaine Johnson will prove difficult to pass on. A front seven featuring veterans Leonard Williams, Darron Lee and Brandon Copeland will need a stronger performance in the run defence game this week.
Best Bets
Cleveland Browns -3 $1.85
I didn’t think I’d be giving up 3 points with the Browns anytime soon but here we are. They’ve fought valiantly these first two weeks and could easily be 2-0 against two divisional playoff teams from last season. They’ve got home field, and, in my opinion, they’ve also got the better Quarterback. In a relatively even game, I believe these two factors will prove to be the difference.
It’s no secret that the Browns have become a bit of a laughing stock over the past few years. However, here they have the opportunity here to go out and put in a professional performance with the whole country watching. Teams that are winless through the first 3 games are almost locks to miss the playoffs and the Browns will want to avoid that fate here. I expect them to come out with courage and desperation, leaving everything on their home field.
Total: Over 39.5
There’s been a very noticeable trend in recent years of Thursday Night Football games falling under the total. It seems as though the guys in Vegas have started to price this in and are artificially lowering the projected totals. As such, I believe there is a bit of value here with this 39.5 line that really isn’t too difficult to achieve in the NFL.
Whilst both defences have put in some strong performances to start the season, there are definitely weaknesses that can be exploited here. I believe that the Browns running game can enjoy some success against a Jets rushing defence that has shown some vulnerability. Similarly, rookie QB Sam Darnold has looked the goods so far and could have an efficient night if he has strong protection upfront.
First TD Scorer: Carlos Hyde at $9.50
Carlos Hyde is probably one of the most underrated Running Backs in the league. A bright light in an otherwise anaemic 49ers offense over the past few years, Hyde came back to Ohio looking to resurrect the struggling Browns offense. Whilst his yards per carry haven’t been great so far, Hyde has managed a rushing touchdown in both weeks this season.
In what shapes up to be a relatively conservative offensive matchup, I believe most of the red-zone opportunities will go to the Running Backs. Given the Jets relatively poor rushing defence last week, I expect El Guapo to get in the end zone for a third straight week. This acts as a great compliment to the Browns -3 pick and you’d be well served combining these two bets.
Best Bet: Browns -3
For me, the Browns are the better team here. They’ve fought hard in both weeks and really should be 2-0. Buoyed by a strong home crowd, I believe that the experience of QB Tyrod Taylor will be the difference here, as the Browns offense enjoys some success.
Score Prediction: Browns 27-20 Jets