Week 2 of the NFL season kicks off with an AFC North rivalry match between the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals. Both sides are coming off Week 1 victories, with the Bengals enjoying a 34-23 win over the Colts and the Ravens destroying the Bills a whopping 47-3. The winner of this match will enjoy top position in the AFC North for at least another week, with division rivals the Browns and Steelers both only managing a tie last week.
Where to Watch: ESPN, 7 Mate or NFL Game Pass, Friday at 10:20am AEST
Baltimore Ravens
Fresh off of last week’s drubbing of the Bills, the Ravens should enter this Week 2 matchup as one of the most confident teams in the entire league. Quarterback Joe Flacco enjoyed a great start to the season, throwing three Touchdown passes and earning himself a fourth quarter rest. Prized additions Michael Crabtree and John Brown both got on the scoresheet last week but will likely face a stiffer test against the strong Bengals secondary. Running Backs Kenneth Dixon and Alex Collins both managed a Touchdown each but will be hoping for a better rushing average this week.
The main story from last week has to be the phenomenal play of the Ravens defence. They made life hell for Bills quarterback Nathan Peterman, enjoying 2 interceptions and allowing under 100 passing yards for the afternoon. Similarly, star Bills Running Back LeSean McCoy was kept in check, only gaining 22 yards in the afternoon. I expect the dominant Ravens front seven, featuring CJ Mosley, Brandon Williams and Terrell Suggs, to really show up big here.
Cincinnati Bengals
Coming back from a halftime deficit, the resilient Bengals picked up a crucial away win against the Colts last week. Often maligned Quarterback Andy Dalton shined, throwing for over 240 yards and 2 touchdowns. Controversial Running Back Joe Mixon also provided a huge offensive boost, rushing for 95 yards and a Touchdown. Superstar Wide Receiver A.J Green continued to do his thing, making Dalton’s life easier with 92 yards receiving and a Touchdown of his own. Green and Mixon will have to be difference makers for the Bengals to have a chance here.
Similarly, the Bengals defence did an excellent job of shutting down returning Colts Quarterback Andrew Luck. They allowed only 7 second half points and gave the offense the opportunity to really drive the comeback. Linebacker Nick Vigil led the team with 11 tackles, whilst safeties Clayton Fejedelem and Jessie Bates chipped in with 10 and 8 tackles respectively on the back end. Star defensive linemen Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap both managed a sack each and will need to be at their best against a strong Ravens offensive line.
Best Bets
Under 45 Points ($1.88)
With the Ravens dropping 47 points last week and the Bengals putting up 34 of their own, most of you would be expecting an over prediction here. However, there are a few key differences that need to be considered here. Firstly, these two defences are both noticeably better than the Bills and Colts defences. They are both balanced at every level, with strong defensive lines, line backers and defensive backs. Whilst both offenses had it easy last week, they’ll face a much stiffer test tonight.
Moreover, Thursday Night Football adds a completely different element to the mix. Thursday Night Football matches are typically tight and cagey affairs where Touchdowns are hard to come by. There just isn’t enough time between fixtures for most teams to implement a comprehensive offensive game plan.
Similarly, this is only amplified in games between division rivals. Playing each other twice per season, you really get a strong feel for how both offenses line up. Both teams have a strong knowledge of each other’s tendencies, which really favours the defence. As such, I think 45 points is probably 7-10 higher than what we can expect on the night.
First Touchdown Scorer: Joe Mixon ($7.50)
Whilst the Ravens running game seems to have a committee approach, Joe Mixon is definitely the unquestioned leader of the Bengals backfield. Second string running back Gio Bernard only managed 1 carry last week, compared to the 17 of Mixon. Mixon carved up the Colts defence last week, to the tune of 95 yards, 1 Touchdown and a 5.6 yard per carry average. Bengals fans will hope that he can put his off-field indiscretions behind him and enjoy a productive on field campaign in 2018.
When analysing the First Touchdown Scorer market, I believe it’s best to take a mathematical approach. As the lead back for the Bengals this season, I expect Mixon to score double digit Touchdowns and be involved in roughly 30% of the team’s scores. As such, I believe the odds for this should be more in the $6-$6.50 range and we are enjoying some strong value here.
Handicap: Ravens PK ($1.96)
The game is considered a pick’em by the boys in Vegas, meaning that neither team is favoured. For me, this is probably a fair reflection. On paper, the Ravens are the slightly better team, but you can’t overlook the raucous Cincinnati crowd. There had been a lot of hype over the Ravens all off-season and they more than lived up to it in Week 1. The Bengals also deserve credit for pulling out a solid come from behind win in Week 1.
Ultimately, I’m buying into this Ravens hype. I think they’re definitely a top 10 team in the league this season and are balanced on both sides of the ball. With the whole country watching, this represents a great opportunity to put in a professional performance and stamp their claim as an AFC powerhouse. I’m sure they also want revenge after Andy Dalton effectively ended their playoff hopes late last season.
Summary
Whilst I predict a close one, I’m quite confident taking the Ravens at $1.96. I think their stout front seven will overpower the Bengals offensive line and ultimately be the difference here. The Ravens also have a much better coaching staff and I’d back John Harbaugh to come up with a strong game plan on relatively short notice. The Joe Mixon first touchdown scorer bet acts as an effective hedge to this. I see him carrying the offensive load for the Bengals but just don’t see it being enough to bring home a victory.
Best Bet: Under 45 Points
By far my best bet of the evening is under the points total of 45. Both teams are coming off of a short week and will likely play things close to the vest. The strength of both teams is their defence, and as such I expect a relatively tight and low scoring battle that remains close throughout.
Score Prediction: Baltimore Ravens 21-17 Cincinnati Bengals