Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes Day is one of the biggest cards contested at Moonee Valley each year and nine talent-rich fields have been confirmed for Saturday.
With ballot-free entry into the Cox Plate on the line, the feature race has drawn a typically smart field of horses including the like of Hartnell, Night’s Watch and Bonneval.
The unique conditions at Moonee Valley always make for an exciting day of racing, but a track rated in the ‘Good’ range looks likely after a fine week in Melbourne.
Nine horses have been confirmed to step out for this mile race and Naantali ($2.95) does look a justifiable favourite. The Rip Van Winkle mare hasn’t finished worse than second through her five most-recent starts and has form at Moonee Valley, having notched a comfortable win at this distance here two starts back. Mark Zahra can take her straight to the front from barrier 3 and she’ll be extremely hard to run down.
There’s a case to be made for a couple of horses fighting out the finish here, but I am confident that Naantali can get the job done.
A capacity field has been taken for the second and there is a case to be made for more than half of the fifteen starters.
The Darren Weir-trained Lucky For All has not been seen at the races since June but has plenty of talent and has opened favourite ($3.90). The Tavistock gelding is undoubtedly better when he gets further out in trip but is capable of a smart fresh performance and won over 1400m first-up at Terang in autumn.
The Avenger is a horse that relishes the unique conditions at Moonee Valley and he looks over the odds at his current price ($10 at the time of publish). The Smart Missile gelding has savaged the line in his two runs at the track and was last seen flying home from the tail of the field to finish third here a fortnight ago. He can settle closer to the pace from an inside drawn on Saturday and with even luck, can be fighting out the finish.
This is a smart little field of three-year-olds and that is certainly reflected in how open the race is from a betting perspective.
Last-start winner Approach Discreet ($3.70) has opened race favourite and there has already been money for Savvy Oak, who is $13 into $9.50 at the time of publish.
I’m looking slightly wider again in this race and have landed on the Tony McEvoy-trained Kinky Boom ($7.50), who should carry a slight fitness edge over many of her rivals into this race. The daughter of Spirit Of Boom shook off the cobwebs with a credible performance for third at Sandown first-up, before a smart run for third here a fortnight ago. The step up in trip looks perfect and she has the added advantage of Craig Williams in the saddle.
This is an outstanding field of stayers and subsequently tough to analyse from a form and betting perspective, and we could see a number of genuine Cups contenders progress from this race.
Trap For Fools ($4) has been in outstanding form this time and is a fitting occupant of the top line, while there’s a case to be made for the three Macedon Lodge horses; US Army Ranger ($34), Harrison ($11) and Exemplar ($26) on class alone.
I really like the Darren Weir-trained Yogi ($8) at his current price, but would not want him a lot shorter in this field. Yogi has been a strong and consistent performer throughout his entire racing career so far and returned to the races with an impressive run to finish second over a mile at Caulfield three weeks ago. With natural improvement and with the added distance, I think he can really make his presence felt.
A small but talented field will step out for this year’s McEwen Stakes and it is shaping as the best contest at Moonee Valley on Saturday.
Nature Strip has returned to the track in scintillating form since transferring to the care of Darren Weir and has opened a $1.55 favourite to win the McEwen. The four-year-old has been a standout performer throughout his entire racing career so far but has gone to another level this time and was last seen dominating the Listed Lightning Stakes (1050m) at Morphettville; delivering Sunlight a six-length defeat.
Godolphin four-year-old Viridine ($14) will resume and looks overs at his current price, while Quilista ($10) and Houtzen ($9) will both take their positions in this field.
I am a big fan of multiple Group 1 winner Shoals ($4.80) and I am confident that she will run a big race here first-up. The Fastnet Rock mare only made three appearances in autumn and was she was completely luckless in running first-up, responded with smart and consecutive wins in the Group 1 Surround Stakes (1400m) and Group 1 Robert Sangster Classic (1200m). She has been set for The Everest this time and has trialled extremely well leading into this race.
This is undoubtedly the toughest test to date for Nature Strip and I am happy to bet against the resounding favourite this time around.
The early scratching of Music Bay means that Alexandra Dreaming has gained a start in the Atlantic Jewel Stakes and the first-up winner is a live chance at $11. This is easily one of the most open fields of Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes Day and we’re looking at $5 the field at the time of publish.
In what is another tough race to analyse, I’m leaning towards Humma Humma ($5), who carries terrific form into the race and who has drawn ideally into the field in barrier 2. The Denman filly ran a close second behind Sunlight in the Group 3 Quezette Stakes (1100m) last time out and has a fitness edge over several of her major rivals here. John McArdle’s horses are airborne currently and Humma Humma has continue the winning strike rate.
The field for this Listed sprint is outstanding and we’ll be seeing a number of exciting Spring Carnival prospects stepping out.
Godolphin gelding Osborne Bulls ($3.80) doesn’t know how to run a bad race and he’s the horse to beat once more. The five-year-old has not finished outside of the places through eleven career starts and is seeking a hat-trick of wins at Listed level, having taken out the Luskin Star Stakes (1300m) at the end of autumn and resumed for a win in the Regal Roller Stakes (1200m) three weeks ago.
Tulip ($11) ran on well for second here at Moonee Valley a fortnight ago and will strip fitter for the run. The daughter of Pierro is several times placed at Group 1 level and does look over the odds at her current price.
Peaceful State ($11) has not been seen at the races since June, but he is a horse of immense talent and he could prove the value in this field at double-figure odds. The son of Animal Kingdom won a couple of Listed races in autumn and finished second behind Grunt in the Group 1 Australian Guineas (1600m) most notably.
With ballot-free entry into this year’s Cox Plate on the line, the Dato’ has drawn a typically smart field and there’s a case to be made for nearly all eleven horses.
Hartnell ($3.60) was impressive to the line when second in the Group 2 PB Lawrence Stakes (1400m) first-up and will only improve second-up at a mile. The Authorized gelding has been a strong and consistent performer throughout his entire racing campaign and will be ridden by regular hoop Craig Williams once more. He opened at a quote of $4.20 and has already attracted plenty of attention in betting.
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The last race looms as a tough one for punters, but there’s plenty of value on offer for all horses and a potentially lucrative end to the card if you can find the right one.
I’m leaning towards the Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott-trained Northwest Passage at genuine each-way odds ($13/$4). Northwest Passage resumed from a long spell to finish a credible fourth in the Listed Rowley Mile (1600m) two weeks ago and is sure to have taken plenty of benefit from the hit-out. He will need to overcome a wide barrier, but will enjoy a drop in the weight with claiming apprentice Zac Spain in the saddle.