The AFL’s ‘You Don’t Want to Play These Blokes’ Rankings 

The AFL is probably the most prolific upward failer in the world. At least right next to the mostly annoying and probable sociopath Ryan Reynolds. 

Here, with the wildcard tournament, they’ve done it again. They’ve copied the NBA’s homework but without any of the nuance of the NBA’s play-in tournament, and in the process robbed us of what would have been an exciting race for seventh and eighth over the last fortnight and an essentially set – barring a miracle – top 10. 

But, as is always the way, they look like they’re going to luck into a bloody good result. They’re careening toward a Collingwood v Carlton wildcard game in the first year of this nakedly profit driven and tournament integrity corrosive concept.  

Good on them, I guess.  

What they have done, though, is accidentally created the “You don’t want to play these blokes” cup with these wildcard games. 

So, with the four wildcard teams probably set, who are the top-6 teams most keen to see the back of? 

1. Geelong  

Even though the Blues have won 10 out of their last 12, there’s nobody that’s striking more fear into the top-6 teams than the Cats.  

They’re lurking in that top wildcard seed like Freddie Krueger waiting for Glen to fall asleep. This is not a great Cats team by any stretch of the imagination, but since they gave up on trying to play the one-armed Jeremy Cameron in round 19, the Cats are 4-0 and have scored over 97 every week including wins over Melbourne and Collingwood.  

In that period, they’re the league’s best front half team both in terms of scoring and time, best turnover scoring team, and third best metres gained team.  

The ability to lock the ball in their front half and punish teams is second to none. With injuries to Dangerfield and Cameron recently, their murderers’ row of half forwards recently bolstered by the good touch of Ollie Wiltshire and the back in form Gryan Miers and Shaun Mannagh makes this a profoundly democratic forward line , with over 8 people kicking a goal per game.  

The Cats are versatile, athletic, have a clear profile, and have the best record against top-6 teams in the AFL.  

The only people less excited to see them than their week 1 opponent would be the AFL when they have to tell the public that Geelong’s breaking of the rules has resulted in the most minor of slaps on the wrist. 

2. Carlton 

There is no bigger story in the AFL than Fraser’s Blues.  

I don’t know if it’s the caretaker’s luck or if Fraser has staying power, but he has transformed the way the Blues play. Over the last 10 games, the Blues are among the league’s best transition teams, the league’s leading marking team, and are one of the lowest stoppage teams in footy.  

Fraser’s Blues keep the ball in motion at basically all costs. That’s a stark departure from Michael Voss’ contest heavy approach, and it’s driven a 10-2 record over the last 12. 

That’s been driven by truly outrageous improvement across the board. Some, like getting games into players like Billy Wilson and Harry Dean, was to be expected.  

But improvement from the veterans has been extraordinary. It’s been like a team full of Jamie Vardys going from Sunday League to Premier League in the space of two years.  

A former list clogger like Adam Cerra looked like he was doing a Joe Burrow impression with the turkey hole kicks he hit against St Kilda on Sunday night. Harry McKay can’t seem to miss at the minute, in probably the biggest indicator of caretaker luck possible. Even the notorious butcher of the ball Ollie Florent was doing surgery by foot.  

Whether it’s sustainable isn’t the point of this column. Carlton’s skills are razor sharp, they’re confident, and they’re buoyed by a wave of momentum. If you cop them at the MCG as a top-6 team, be ready for a hostile environment. 

3. Collingwood  

I just don’t think Collingwood is much good.  

I don’t.  

But I can’t escape what I see. Driven by Nick Daicos in the midst of what will almost certainly be his first Brownlow year and Dan McStay somehow, the Pies are 4-1 over their last five. 

Nobody would mistake the Pies for a deep team, but they do have the best system in the competition.  

It’s that system, along with Daicos, that is terrifying. The Pies are generally very hard to score against defensively because they get across and help so well. They’re also somehow scoring 95 points a game over the last five because, in part, of McStay’s form but more broadly because of the way they keep the ground long, basically so Nick can pick the eyes out of a 1v1 with one of his 5.2 kicks inside 50 per game, which he’s doing a league-leading 65% of the time.  

If you stop Daicos, you stop Collingwood. But I guess that’s like saying if you stop Hitler at Munich, you stop WWII. It’s a lot easier to say than to do. 

4. Western Bulldogs 

The Bulldogs are like a worse version of Collingwood.  

The only reason you’d be worried about them is because you’re a subscriber to the great man theory history, but the Dogs’ great man is clearly playing hurt and the team doesn’t have the kind of system to support him.  

A week after trying to flood against Fremantle, but without the ensuing rebound that made their flood earlier in the year fairly effective, the Bulldogs were taken apart by North Melbourne’s direct ball movement.  

More worryingly though, the Dogs couldn’t score themselves against the worst defence in the AFL at North Melbourne.  

They don’t seem to have a system they can reliably fall back on like they have in years past in either attack or defence, and they’ve spent the back part of the year looking lost after starting the year looking like a true contender. 

If they get through their wildcard game, which feels unlikely, you’d be overjoyed to get them in week 1 of the finals.