Five weeks remain on the NRL draw, with the Top 8 far from set heading towards finals.
A mouth-watering Friday night of footy awaits with a pair of Top 8 battles in store, and there’s no man better equipped to help you find a winner than our very own Oscar Pannifex!
North Queensland barely made it a contest last week against Easts, completely folding around the ruck to concede an average 52m per set – historically awful numbers. They missed the workrate of Reed Mahoney off the ball but the Cowboys can’t hope to address their defensive issues with one or two personnel changes.
We can only assume the Gold Coast will take a leaf out of Easts book and play through the middle here. The Titans continue to find points between the tram lines (42% – most in the NRL) and between Oliver Pascoe and Keano Kini I like that trend to prove true again.
Two teams with points in them and both coming off big losses; this feels like it could be a shoot-out and if it is, it’s North Queensland’s to win.
- Prediction: Titans to Cover (+3.5 Points) @ $1.90
- Anytime Tryscorers: Keano Kini @ $3.35, Jaxon Purdue @ $3.20
The last time these two met, we were treated to a 20-18 thriller and a potential Grand Final preview.
A near-full strength Panthers side finished best on that occasion but there was a lot to like about a New Zealand side missing a host of first-grade talent. Back to somewhere near their best for this one, I like the Warriors to get one back or at the very least make it a contest.
Blaize Talagi out for Jack Cogger last week was a huge call from Penrith’s coaching staff and goes a long way to summing up their inconsistencies down that side of the field.
Whether or not it’s the right call remains to be seen, but I like New Zealand to double down on that spot and throw as many questions as they can at this new-look Panthers left edge.
- Prediction: Warriors to Cover the Line (+4.5 Points) @ $1.90
- Anytime Tryscorers: Charnze Nicholl-Klokstad @ $3.90, Jacob Laban @ $6.40
It felt like Easts had been building towards something special and they cashed in to the tune of 82 points last week. Whenever Sam Walker is running downhill at retreating defenders the Roosters will be scoring tries and this Roosters pack is consistently winning the yardage battle for their young half to play on the back of.
Canterbury have also played themselves into form, looking far more fluent with the ball in hand now that Jacob Preston and Viliame Kikau stalk the tram lines. Both backrowers have an enormous influence on the Bulldogs attack and I like them to make this a contest.
In a game that profiles as a real grind early on, Easts may just have too much class in the pressure moments.
- Prediction: Roosters 1-12 @ $2.80
- Anytime Tryscorers: Salesi Foketi @ $5.00, Hugo Savala @ $2.65
For more than a few moments there, it looked like Craig Bellamy was going to inspire the most unlikely of Storm upsets against Canterbury last week. Melbourne’s refusal to concede this year amidst a season from hell is testament to the winning culture at the club – even if they aren’t enjoying winning results.
That being said, they get a look here at a Manly-Warringah side that is also hanging on by a thread.
The Sea Eagles ruck defence remains a concern and given how Tyran Wishart attacked out of dummy-half last week, it’s an area that profiles well for the Storm in this one.
- Prediction: Storm 1-12 @ $3.15
- Anytime Tryscorer: Tyran Wishart @ $4.75
Redcliffe clearly had a plan to play left in attack last week but St George didn’t make it easy for them. Kyle Flanagan (in for Daniel Atkinson) made a big difference to that leaky right edge but Selwyn Cobbo proved un-defendable in a few moments to seal a well-fought Dolphins win.
Brisbane disappointed in their first pressure-free game of the season; out of finals contention and a genuine danger to rival teams jostling for a spot in the Eight, themselves.
We thought we’d see the shackles come off the Broncos attack last week and there’s every chance it happens here in the local derby.
The smart money says it’s Redcliffe’s to win though.
- Prediction: Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.85
- Anytime Tryscorer: Kodi Nikorima @ $4.00
South Sydney’s win-loss-win-loss record continued last week and I’m betting the trend again here.
First points and an early look at a 12-man defensive line felt like the perfect storm for South Sydney to spring a huge upset against Cronulla but inexperienced and illdiscipline cost the Bunnies last week.
With four big inclusions through the forward pack here, I like the Rabbitohs to get back to something close to their best footy in this one. The involvements of Cameron Murray on either a quick play-the-ball or a line engaging pass can be the difference for the Bunnies attack here.
- Prediction: Souths to Cover the Line (-9.5) @ $1.90
- Anytime Tryscorers: Matt Dufty @ $2.60, David Fifita @ $3.40
Down on troops and given no chances by the bookies, it’s difficult to deny this Knights side after a big win in NRL Round 22.
Kalyn Ponga was instrumental but it’s not a one-man-band in Newcastle anymore; Fletcher Sharpe & Sandon Smith have excelled in multiple positions this year, Dominic Young & Greg Marzhew are back to their productive best and Francis Manulelua has emerged just in time to cover Dylan Lucas’ absence.
Canberra by comparison are feeling the pinch of an injury-ravaged forward pack. We saw the best of the Raiders attack behind a full strength forward rotation a few weeks ago but Canberra’s big men are stretched thin right now and mightn’t have the legs once fatigue sets in.
- Prediction: Knights to Cover the Line (+3.5 Points) @ $1.90
- Anytime Tryscorer: Bradman Best @ $2.70
South Sydney started fast last week but Cronulla’s ability to stop the rot and claw back momentum is further evidence of their improvements this year.
Key to their comfort in the grind right now is the fifth tackle involvements of Braydon Trindall. In both yardage and good-ball, Trindall continues to take the right options with his boot and his Sharks teammates are reaping the rewards.
A powerful forward pack and a productive backline are doing more positive work and less grunt-work with the ball to fuel an attack that averages 29 points per game this season.
St George-Illawarra will go with them in the grind early but expect the class of Trindall and this Sharks spine to be the difference once fatigue sets in.
- Prediction: Sharks 1-12 @ $3.20
- Anytime Tryscorer: Jesse Ramien @ $2.50
