This is a very strange year in the AFL.
It’s like the Oppenheimer Oscars where everything seems to be pointing in one direction more because of the relative quality of the field compared to the overall quality of the leader (I will die on the hill that Oppenheimer wasn’t that good. Marty Supreme was better).
Fremantle is a $3.00 favourite with Neds and are three games clear on top of the ladder. Next is Brisbane, who just copped 25 goals against a Carlton team that’s about to get forced into hiring its interim, at $5.40.
It feels like other that Fremantle, the entire competition is somewhere between okay and terrible. But as we know, sometimes it’s just about getting hot at the right time.
With three games left for each team, who can actually make a run at the premiership? And what is every team in the race’s fatal flaw?
They’re the questions we’re asking here as we head down the stretch toward the wildcard round.
1. Fremantle
Fremantle is so far and away the best team in football this year. Even though they’ve been just okay over the last month or so, including making heavy work of the Bulldogs on Friday night, their smallest winning margin since round 18 is 28 points.
With the stars they have around the ball, led by Murphy Reid and Shai Bolton, the Dockers have the ability to put the hammer down and put daylight between them and their opponents in previously close games.
I’ve called them a high intensity deployment team all year, and their combat experience at this point in the year is second to none.
The fact that they can score as explosively as they can while also being 13 points better than the second best scoring defence in the AFL – the difference between the best and second best scoring defence in the AFL is about the same as the difference between Adelaide in second and North Melbourne in 14th – makes them a clear favourite to win the premiership.
Fatal flaw: They have two. First is the tortured history of Fremantle, though they’ve never had a team this good. Second is that they struggle with stay at home full-forwards so they’d be hoping not to see Jack Gunston or Logan Morris until they have to.
2. Brisbane
I don’t know what to do with Brisbane. This team is among the most explosive attacking teams I can ever remember. They have a parade of forwards and mids that can you can reasonably expect to kick 2-5 goals in every game: Logan Morris, Charlie Cameron, Kai Lohmann, Oscar Allen when he plays, Zac Bailey, Cam Rayner, Will Ashcroft and on and on.
They are currently averaging nine different goal kickers a game. They’re one of only two teams to average nine since 2018, with the other being last year’s Bulldogs.
In a strange way, that seems to me to be the best comparison. They’re last year’s Dogs with better PR. They score heavily, are dotted with stars, but have really struggled to defend scores even though they have Harris Andrews back there having a decent year.
Fatal flaw: They cannot defend. Early in the season they couldn’t stop transition to save their lives, which has kind of resolved itself now as they’ve returned to the middle of the pack over the last five games. Now they just can’t stop teams scoring. They’re 12th in points against over the last five and 13th for the year. They’re simply scored too heavily against.
3. Hawthorn
The Hawks are going under the radar, but they are dangerous.
They’re threatening to go full Michael Corleone with the way that they might fulfil their god-given destiny.
More important than that, though, is that Will Day has played four of the last five games averaging 20 disposals with a little under half of them coming in attacking midfield. He’s also getting involved in Hawthorn’s scoring with about five score involvements per game.
The Hawks have a parade of high half forwards led by the Wizard and Connor Macdonald but Will Day gives them a more mature, more physical body around the front half of the ground to free up the fleet of foot types. If he can stay fit, along with the balance they have in defence, the Hawks are a big chance.
Fatal flaw: Statistically, they have a good defence. They’re third in scoring. However, they can be beaten when the ball doesn’t come in high. With Barrass, Battle, and Sicily, the Hawks have a tendency to own the sky like they’re Vincent D’Onofrio in The Break-Up.
Because Hawthorn’s pressure is generally so good, the ball usually does enter high and can be dealt with by their talls. However, as we saw in round 6 against Port, a game Hawthorn won, entering low and forcing their talls to chase rather than read the aerial balls causes Hawthorn problems. The best crumbing teams can give the Hawks issues.
4. Sydney
I wrote about Sydney this week so we can dispense with them quickly.
The Swans essentially only want the corridor, and if they can’t get it, they’ll die trying.
That is both their gift and their curse, and the question will be whether they can work through it.
Honourable mentions: Geelong and Adelaide
I toyed with putting both of these sides in there, but each has to overcome hurdles that look to me to be insurmountable.
For Adelaide, while their pressure and general willpower is elite they just don’t have enough midfield talent to make a true run at it. I’m not sure what’s happened to Jake Soligo but he has fallen off a cliff.
For the Cats, it feels like this year is a bit of a gap year. With the ascension of Ollie Wiltshire, they will head into 2027 with a cluster of high half-forwards that could match Hawthorn’s with Wiltshire, Mannagh, Miers, Martin, and even Dempsey to an extent though he gets further down the ground.
But for this year, it doesn’t feel like they have quite enough juice to truly contend.