It is famously hard to make the finals, let alone the top 4, when you leave round 2 with zero wins.
But that might be changing with the AFL’s adoption of the uniquely Chinese skill of copying the Americans. Unlike the Chinese, however, the AFL invariably copies the Americans slightly worse, but I digress.
Their latest act of slight inferiority mixed with plagiarism is the wildcard round which, in practice, gives two more teams a chance of playing in the finals, or at least in a single elimination game depending on how the league classifies it. The point is more teams can now make it, and it should render a poor start less important.
Who’s most likely to make it of the currently winless teams? Let’s dig into it.
1. Brisbane
There are a few teams that have started out hot like Gold Coast and the Bulldogs, but Brisbane is the spectre hanging over them. The team that everyone knows will get better and won’t want to encounter come September.
At 0-2 and coming off their bye, Brisbane is lurking out there like they’re Long Legs. They’re quiet, they’re outside, they’re staring, and then suddenly they’re in your Gold Coast’s leaving you a card to tell you how they killed your mother.
While the normally core tenets of their game are down, particularly time in forward half and general ball control, everyone knows that they’re an institution, like McDonalds or big tobacco.
Their fall is temporary and their rise is inevitable.
It’s just a matter of time.
- Chances of making the finals: 85%
2. Richmond
And don’t get me wrong, the chance of Richmond challenging the 10 isn’t far from the chance of me ruining Dua Lipa’s marriage, though she is coming to Melbourne…
Richmond’s ball movement this year has been far better than in previous years under Adem Yze, seeking to exit wide like the Hawks and progress the ball up the wings as much as possible. They’re still not heavy risk takers, but their expected threat per kick is up from the league-worst last year as they are biting off more 45 kicks where they can find them.
The Tigers’ still don’t get enough of the ball, generally don’t spend enough time in their forward half, and are slow in midfield so are therefore unlikely to make the 10.
But if they can transition players like Hopper and Prestia out of the midfield and replace them with Hotton and Cumming as they get healthy, Richmond’s midfield balance could be drastically improved and that could solve their issues. If that happens and the bottom falls out at Collingwood, St Kilda, or even the meek looking GWS and the Tigers might be saying there’s a chance.
- Chances of making the finals: 9%
3. Essendon
Full disclosure, I started writing this at quarter time of the North Melbourne v West Coast game when the Roos were four goals up and coasting.
Even then I thought West Coast looked a lot better than Essendon. Their pressure was good, they ran in waves, and they looked more like the Hardwick Richmond teams than any of the teams currently being helmed by Richmond disciples (outside of Hardwick himself).
Then they won, so Essendon is clearly at the bottom.
The Bombers are incredibly easy to play, just ask Brad Scott. Their forward pressure is non-existent but somehow neither is their structure. If Port Adelaide switched the ball once, they were out. On the rare moment where Essendon attempted a switch, they had nothing to kick to and inevitably turned it over because their blokes were jogging over to make a contest that they’d almost certainly lose.
They are also adept at achieving the impossible, which is to allow teams to waltz through your corridor because presumably you’re folding your defence back, only to get beaten over the back toward goal.
Mr Burns fought climate change harder than Essendon fights defensively.
Separate to structure, their skills are diabolical. Essendon is the worst ball winning team and the sixth worst ball use team in the competition. They are an abhorrent footy team.
It’s almost unbelievable to have given up this early in the season. This is the only team I’m willing to categorically write off.
- Chances of making the finals: 0%