Footy is back! And in classic AFL fashion, it’s starting with a whimper.
We have a little over half a round, four fifths of which will be played in the northern states to “take advantage” of the NRL being in Vegas this weekend.
I’m not quite sure how that works but stick with me!
There’s also a fifth game, but that’s happening at the MCG because Collingwood has cracked the sads and doesn’t want another interstate trip to add to their three this season.
By the way, don’t call it Round 1 or Andrew Dillon will send you to hell, which is trying to sell the AFL in Delhi to a bunch of guys who think you’re Steve Smith.
Anyway, despite the AFL refusing to acknowledge how dumb Opening Round is and sticking with it, it is exciting to have some real games back so we can stop pretending that anything out of preseason matters.
Here’s one question for each of the five games in Opening Round.
Sydney v Carlton: How does Charlie go?
There’s only one question in this game, and it’s about Sydney’s new key forward. While I’m lower on the Curnow addition than most, key forwards look good wheeling around and kicking 80m goals in that red and white, and Charlie is no exception.
But how does he go in a real game?
What we know about Curnow is that he has tended to falter in big games, kicking just three goals across his three career finals. However, Charlie loves to dominate small games. Curnow has kicked more goals in eight games against West Coast – 29 – than he has against any other team, despite them being his equal tenth most played team.
So what’s this one? It’s the season curtain-raiser and he’s playing against the team he left as soon as the going got truly tough.
It sounds like a big game to me.
If he’s going to be a success at Sydney, a statement that he’s left Carlton’s culture of failure in big spots would be a good place to start.
Gold Coast v Geelong: How has Gold Coast’s clearance game changed?
Gold Coast was a strong clearance team last year. They were fourth in total clearances, third in first possessions, and second in turning first possessions into clearances. They also had some end product, sitting fourth in expected chain stoppage scores and third in stoppage scoring.
Geelong, on the other hand, was elite at mucking up stoppages last year. They allowed teams to get the third most first possessions, but the fewest of those first possessions turning into clearances. They were also top-6 defending stoppage scores and fewest expected stoppage chain scores by opponents.
What showed in the finals, however, is that there’s levels to this shit.
Despite Gold Coast’s strong overall numbers, their finals loss to Brisbane and their Round 13 loss tot Geelong were their two worst stoppage scoring games of the season.
They clearly felt like they needed to sharpen the spear, and they brought in Christian Petracca to add an extra explosive element to their stoppage scoring game. Even in a down year off injury, Petracca led all mid-forwards in attacking midfield possessions and score involvements while sitting sixth in overall scoreboard impact.
He was brought in to be one of those poison-soaked arrows from Avatar, tasked with turning an already dangerous product into a lethal one.
A first game against Geelong is a good place to see how it’s going after preseason.
GWS v Hawthorn: Can GWS start a contested ball revolution without Tom Green?
I enjoyed the GWS behind the scenes documentary. It was good fun in all areas, but especially when Adam Kingsley yelled at the team.
Whilst I do not think Kingsley is anywhere near as good of a coach as his reputation suggests, you can see that he’s good at problem identification. It felt like every time he yelled at the Giants in the doc, it was because they just weren’t getting enough contested ball.
He was clearly right, with GWS in the bottom five for contested ball differential.
But GWS is feeling a bit like Jerry Seinfeld in the Even Steven episode these days, as they brought in one contested bull to help their existing contested bull, only for their existing contested bull – Tom Green – to be lost for the season.
It feels like with the injury, GWS has the same problem as last year just with a different face.
Brisbane v Bulldogs: Has anything changed for either team?
One of these teams won the premiership. The other one won the nerd offensive stats premiership while failing to make the finals because they couldn’t stop a blood nose all year.
Neither seems very likely to divert from that path.
All of these questions are about some change that was made and how that affects the season.
This one is about the changes that weren’t made and whether anything happens.
St Kilda v Collingwood: How do the Saints new guys look?
The crux of the piece is that AFL has built this massive infrastructure around a 10 day period where B+ players get moved from one club to another with the theory being that they will change fortunes.
Generally, the outcome is that whoever “wins” the trade period wins nothing on the field, unless they’re adding a superstar like Patty Dangerfield or Tom Lynch.
The best recent example of this was Richmond adding Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto, but the best one of the decade is Essendon’s banner 2018 offseason where they added Jake Stringer, Dylan Shiel, and Devon Smith.
How’d that go?
So let’s see if TDK can revolutionise ruck craft in a way that he was never able to even when tapping to Patty Cripps. Let’s see if Jack Silvagni can play 20 games, which he hasn’t done for three years. Let’s see if Sam Flanders can be an actual midfielder.
But on this game, let’s just see if the Saints, looking cherry ripe after a big offseason and with no injuries, can beat a Collingwood team that might be starting its descent down the mountain.