Immediately after running back Jahmyr Gibbs delivered Detroit yet another win, destroying the Cowboys to the tune of 19 touches for 120 yards and three touchdowns, the Lions leaked via Ian Rapoport that extending Gibbs is their “priority #1 this offseason”.
In recent years, the Lions have shed their tag as a cheap organisation as Sheila Ford Hamp has taken over from her mother and, unlike most children of billionaires, is, refreshingly, not a fucking idiot.
She is aware that owning an NFL franchise is basically owning a mint and is spending accordingly (someone tell Mike Brown).
Gibbs seems to be the next one to get a big extension after franchise cornerstones Jared Goff, Aidan Hutchinson, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Penei Sewell all got their deals.
My bet is that they get a deal done for top of market money.
Given he’s on pace to be one of the all-time great running backs, who can blame them?
This is what we want from teams. Like the Eagles, Detroit has been proactive signing stars earlier rather than later, so they don’t wait for the price of the brick to go up.
They’ll do it this year, and in three years Gibbs will look like a bargain.
Ahh. There it is.
The actual question: What will he look like in three years?
And so, we return to the old chestnut: What’s a running back worth?
In the mid-late 2010s after a string of catastrophic contracts handed to guys like Ezekiel Elliott, Melvin Gordon, Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson, and Todd Gurley the prevailing wisdom was that you never give a running back a second contract.
There’s too much wear and tear on the bodies for there to be any value outside of the player’s first three years or so.
Some have worked, like Christian McCaffrey’s big deal, but you just shouldn’t take the risk. The opportunity cost is too high, especially in a capped sport.
The teams who handed out the deals to the next wave of running backs were in full Lindsay and Tobias talking about an open relationship mode: “this never works for anybody…but it might work for us”
This question has become more nuanced in recent years. Last year’s acquisitions of Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley last year drove their new teams to heights including, in the case of Barkley, a Super Bowl.
In the last 12 months, further nuance has come up in the form of two extra lessons:
- The Raiders drafted Ashton Jeanty as a foundational piece and they have been disgusting; and
- Neither Barkley nor Henry have been nearly as good this year as they were last.
The lesson from all this is that a great running back works best as a flourish, not a foundation. Relatedly, we also confirmed it’s still a dependent position.
What does all that mean for Gibbs and the Lions?
Let’s deal with the new lessons first.
When Gibbs was drafted in 2023, he was the perfect lightning to David Montgomery’s thunder, providing speed and X-factor in the offence, running behind an utterly dominant offensive line.
He was flourish.
The Lions, now, however look to be fading. They have lost most of their interior offensive line stars that Gibbs was initially running behind, most notably Frank Ragnow and Jonah Jackson.
Beyond the line attrition, Montgomery clearly isn’t the same player he was two years ago, and Gibbs is now the unquestioned lead back.
With the Lions getting older and more expensive, Gibbs is more likely to become the foundation rather than the flourish. A reality that almost never leads to winning games.
Now to history. To me, the closest comparison is the Zeke extension with the Cowboys. Obviously they are far different archetypes of players, but in terms of situation.
One similarity lies in how they are talked about.
He was the running back that you could depend on and crucially, like Gibbs, he was the player that made the offence go rather than the quarterback.
You had to sign him. Just like the Lions do.
Another similarity: both were drafted behind dominant offensive lines that had begun to fade by extension time, a development that went largely unnoticed by the public.
There is a key point of difference, however.
Zeke got his 6 year, $90m extension after his fourth year whereas this would be after Gibbs’ third. By the time of the extension Zeke had about 550 more touches than Gibbs does to this point in his career, not to mention Zeke being relied on significantly more heavily as a blocker.
After Zeke got his deal, he only had over 1,000 yards once more in his career and his contract was little more than an albatross for the Cowboys almost instantly.
So, what does it mean for Gibbs and Lions?
I don’t think his likely extension goes anywhere near as badly as Zeke’s did because of how much less work there is on Gibbs. I’d also be surprised if the length of the commitment and the money associated is close to 6 years for $90m even without adjusting for inflation.
But I just can’t escape the Lindsay and Tobias of it all.
Every time I delude myself into thinking it might work for the team extending their running back, basically other than Christian McCaffrey getting extended by the Niners, I’ve been wrong.
Derrick Henry with the Titans? Wrong. Dalvin Cook with the Vikings? Wrong. Nick Chubb with the Browns? Wrong. I could go on but I’m running out of words.
Despite that, Gibbs is one of my favourite players and truly is among the best I’ve ever seen.
I guess I’m here again…it might work for Detroit?