Who Can Actually Win the Super Bowl
Bill Belichick always said “I have a real thing for litigious, domineering younger women who know how to use Adobe Photoshop”.
Okay, he didn’t always say that. Back before his potentially elder abuse era, he used to say that the season didn’t start until Thanksgiving.
Given we’re heading into that time of year, it’s worth looking at who you can mount a reasonable case for a Super Bowl chance heading into the season’s stretch run.
In a season where we have lacked excellence, as well as genuine WR2s in fantasy, to my eye about a third of the league can still mount a case for winning the whole thing.
Here are the nine teams that can win it all.
1. Los Angeles Rams
This year is Sean McVay’s Pluribus.
He and Vince Gilligan proved their genius once, with Breaking Bad for Gilligan and the 11 personnel based “illusion of complexity” for McVay. Now, with Pluribus and the 13 personnel revolution, they’re doing it again in fresh but iterative ways.
The Rams are still using the illusion of complexity, but this time with heavy personnel and a physical, downhill running game along with a pass game that gets chunk yardage for fun, sitting top 3 in both dropback EPA and success rate.
Combine that with a dominant defensive front four that leads the league in early down success rate and is top-10 in every pressure metric and you have both the best team in the league, and the team that seems most likely to usher in the NFL’s new meta.
2. Seattle Seahawks
The difference between them is that I trust Matt Stafford to not go full Will from The Inbetweeners in a big spot, whereas Sam Darnold just did it against the Rams and then had to the press conference with his pants in a ziplock bag.
So, even if Seattle is the better, meaner, more talented defence across all three levels, the Rams have to be on top in this exercise. Not only because they just beat Seattle, but because their quarterback can’t reasonably be compared to James Harden.
3. Detroit Lions
There’s a clear top-two and then you can throw a blanket over the next bunch.
I’ve put Detroit here for two reasons:
- The Lions are institutionally dominant,
- They have a better chance of just making the playoffs than the number 4 team.
But the offence, since being taken over by Dan Campbell is the story. While they were demolished by the Eagles last week, that was more of an execution issue than anything.
But more than anything, the Lions just have star power that few teams can compete with.
To beat the Giants this week, Jahmyr Gibbs scored a 69 yard touchdown in overtime. Then when the Giants got their shot, Aiden Hutchinson called game with a walk off strip sack.
Sometimes, it’s not much more complicated than having the best players.
4. Kansas City Chiefs
And don’t tell me that it’s because the quarterbacks are too expensive, by the way. Matt Stafford is the second most expensive quarterback in the league this year against the cap. If you’re smart about resource apportionment are willing to spend cold hard cash, like the Eagles and Rams are for instance you can absorb their salaries.
But, leaving that to one side, Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league still and at least he has Rashee Rice to throw it to. That, combined with their astonishing history and the fact that after beating the Colts they’ve got a 55% chance of making it is enough to rank them here for me.
5. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are Detroit, if Detroit weren’t playing well and Amon Ra St Brown and Jared Goff absolutely hated each other.
This is still the most talented roster in the league, even with deterioration across the offensive line. By the numbers and the eye test, it’s a top-2 defence in the league that genuinely gives most opponents fits.
But there’s just something missing.
AJ Brown and Jalen Hurts seem to be in a lovers’ quarrel, except there are questions about whether they ever loved each other to begin with. Separate to them, the engine of last year’s team Saquon Barkley has been mistake prone and has no juice.
The only offensive player that’s playing well is Devonta Smith.
I feel stupid ranking them in the top-5 especially given how badly they collapsed in the second half of the Cowboys game, but it goes to show how weak the league feels this year and how good the names are on paper for the Eagles.
6. New England Patriots
The Patriots are the AFC’s top-seed and have one of the MVP favourites at quarterback.
Why are they so low?
For the same reason that Carmy doesn’t tell Syd that her short rib needed acidity. You can’t just give the kids what they want first go.
Even though Maye is a superstar, his best receiver is Stefon Diggs. The Patriots are also among the league’s worst run games and have deeply average defensive metrics. They also suffered a series of significant injuries across the offensive line against the Bengals which figures to make the run game worse and put even more onto Maye’s shoulders.
This is a team that has eked out 10 wins on the back of great coaching and quarterback play. That might be enough to win it all, but I’d rather have them below the teams with the good players.
7. Green Bay Packers
We’re officially in miracle territory here.
But water got turned into wine.
Richmond won the 2017 premiership.
Desean Jackson returned that kick.
Miracles do happen, and they could happen to Green Bay who just tore JJ McCarthy’s lifeless body to even worse shreds.
Despite it looking really bad really often for Jordan Love, Green Bay is third in the league for offensive EPA/play and they lead the league in dropback EPA. If Christian Watson can turn a good game into a good end of the season like he did in 2022, they might actually get that number 1 receiver they’re clearly crying out for.
Defensively it’s almost the opposite story. Despite looking like a dominant outfit on paper, they’re just average sitting 15th in defensive EPA/play. If they can get the pass rush that should be good to actually be good then I refuse to count the Packers out.
8. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have won five in a row and are top of the AFC North. Their super duper star quarterback is back, and their defence has hit its stride over the last month.
Why are they this low?
Have you been impressed with a single win over this five game streak? It reminds me a bit of a hot prospect fighter that’s being matched favourably on his way up and is winning, but is going to be in trouble as soon as he’s tested.
Lamar Jackson looks a step slower this season, even in his return from injury, and his pressure to sack rate is proof. Derrick Henry doesn’t look anywhere near the same as he did.
In general, what was once offensive death star is now just offensive, particularly for those of us who had to watch them play the Jets this week.
But, they were historically good last year and have mostly the same personnel. I can’t quite give up on them yet.
Defensively, they’ve been pretty good over the last month sitting second in defensive EPA over that period. But part of that is their opponents. This team is going to go as far as Lamar can take them.
9. Denver Broncos
If the Broncos are going to win the Super Bowl, it kind of has to be the Eagles model of last year.
Bo Nix has similar limitations to Jalen Hurts as a player. They have a solid set of offensive skill position players and good offensive line. They have a championship calibre defence.
The thing is, comparing this year’s Broncos to last year’s Eagles is like comparing Gloria Trillo to Valentina La Paz. They’re trying to do the same thing, but there are levels to this stuff.
Nix has similar limitations to Hurts but none of the strengths in short yardage, nor is he as willing a scrambler. I like Courtland Sutton and I guess Troy Franklin, but they’re not exactly AJ Brown and Devonta Smith.
The Broncos this season have a -0.07 defensive EPA. The Eagles were better than that last year.
They could do it because Sean Payton is so good, and because Bo Nix could improve in the back half of the year. Plus, they have a chance to get the #1 seed. But I don’t love their chances.
This probably should have been Josh Allen and the Bills but watching the Bills throw the ball makes me want to vomit.