In 1990, Paul Keating famously described an incoming recession as “the recession we had to have”.
I bet Brandon Beane and the Buffalo Bills are thinking the same thing, at least offensively.
Fresh off a drubbing at the hands of the Dolphins, the Bills are having the year offensively that they were meant to have last year.
2024 was meant to be the reset year after running into financial and existential football problems and deciding to let key offensive contributors Mitch Morse, Stefon Diggs, and Gabe Davis walk in the offseason as well as a number of ageing defensive starters.
To offset the fact that the Bills lost their spread out passing game weapons, instead the Bills found a power run game and used it to great effect, and were able to stave off the rebuild.
The Bills were the second best offence in the league last year by EPA/play because they were the third most efficient running team in the league, getting successful runs on 42% of early downs, fifth in the league.
James Cook, behind a renovated and dominant offensive line, had 1,200 scrimmage yards and 18 total touchdowns.
Because they were so efficient on early downs, they didn’t need winners on the outside because Allen was good enough take advantage of the advantageous situations that Cook and the offensive line put them in.
On the season, Khalil Shakir had 25 more targets than any other Buffalo Bill.
However, the Bills did want a little extra outside juice as we saw when they traded a third round pick for Amari Cooper.
If the Bills offseason said there’s a recession coming, the Cooper trade was a subsidy cheque to stave it off until later.
Cooper was generally disappointing in Buffalo and they let him walk, but you can see how they got to the point where they felt like they had to make the move.
That run game was enough to drive the Bills to 13-4 and the AFC title game where they lost to the Chiefs again.
This year, the Bills have leant further in.
They are a part of the heavy personnel revolution in the NFL, with teams like the Rams and the Seahawks also using heavy personnel to play offence.
The Bills have been in either 13, 21 or 22 personnel on 29% of their plays, top of the league.
The Rams and Seahawks are at 18% (the Rams have been in 13 on 40% of plays over the last month, however) and 31% respectively.
But the Rams and Seahawks are the Pulp Fiction to the Bills’ Boondock Saints: a pale imitation on its face trying to do the same thing.
When the Seahawks get heavy, they’re throwing down the field to Jaxon Smith-Njigba and soon enough Rasheed Shaheed.
When the Rams get heavy, they can run the ball but also chuck it down the field to Davante Adams and Puca Nacua.
When the Bills get heavy, they… run the ball.
Whenever they do try and pass out of those heavy looks, their lack of outside winners or any vertical speed is so obvious.
The passing game just feels tight.
In large part that’s because of personnel.
Shakir is again their most targeted player, after him it’s Keon Coleman, who was their first swing and miss at fixing their outside receiver problem.
The only player who’s open less often than Coleman was former New England Patriot N’Keal Harry.
Then it’s Dalton Kincaid and James Cook.
There’s not a single vertical player in that list.
There’s no reason for safeties to get deep or respect any deep passing game and that compacts the field dramatically, which is part of the reason the Bills had a 25% early down rushing success rate against Miami and were generally up against it against Miami.
It also shows in Allen’s own numbers.
Allen is having the second worst year of his career by air yards per completion, only to last year where they had the same problem but they had the benefit of the element of surprise.
There’s no space for them to play in.
While they’re still the sixth best passing game by dropback success rate and EPA/play, that’s only because of Josh Allen’s unique form of genius.
The Bills tried to stave off the recession again at this trade deadline, apparently pursuing but failing to acquire Jaylen Waddle, knowing that’s the kind of player they need.
They also swung for an outside receiver with Keon Coleman in the 2024 draft.
They know what they need, but they just haven’t found it since they let Stefon Diggs walk.
Josh Allen is so good that, for most of the season, a lack of outside juice just isn’t going to matter.
Their running game is still elite, and Allen is an elite offence by himself.
But there are going to be games, especially for a team with February aspirations, where you are going to feel their obvious shortcomings.
The game against Miami was an example of that,
As we get deeper into the season, I expect we’re going to see it more.
Brandon Beane tried to stave off the recession once. Can he succeed this time?