Trade period has ended, as it always does, with a rush.
But this one was like The Godfather with the way it came home with an especially wet sail.
It even finished like The Godfather with Tom Petroro demanding Hawthorn not tell him they’re innocent, because it’s insulting, and it makes him very angry.
They could’ve thrown Cam McKenzie in the deal to get the Merrett deal done.
Aside from that, here are three bigger picture thoughts that came to me from a period that seemed to signal a bit of a paradigm shift in some instances, while in others, eternal truths remain.
1. The Key Forward is still King
There were two major deals this trade period.
The first saw Christian Petracca, 30 in January, dealt to the Gold Coast for picks 7, 8, and 37 in this year’s draft as well as Gold Coast’s 2026 first and their 2027 third rounder.
Sydney also got picks 31 and 42 this year, and Carlton’s second in 2027.
Those two guys are both about the same age, both have had significant health issues– Petracca notably almost dying in what would have been a tough birthday for the king – but were traded for drastically different prices.
Both netted at least two first round picks, with Petracca netting three, though the 2026 first is likely to be pretty average given how good Gold Coast should be, but only Carlton got a genuine contributor like Will Hayward on top of it.
A lot of smart guys, myself included, want to say that the striker role that Petracca is elite at is the most important role in footy.
The prices for two guys in similar boats, with Curnow having had a worse 2025 than Petracca did, says that the league disagrees.
The key forward is still the king of this jungle.
2. Footy is getting more ruthless
This trade period, more than any other that I remember, feels like the biggest paradigm shift in the relationship between club and player. Clubs said they had enough of players signing big fat deals and saying they want out two years in, and held them to their contracts.
This happened most famously with Zach Merrett, but also with Jai Simpkin, Rowan Marshall.
Even Cal Ah Chee was sent to the draft after consecutive premierships.
Separate to that, the Saints went full Tony Soprano promising to send the Spatafores to Maine, only to send Vito Jr to military school on Leek Aleer, reneging on a promise they clearly made him. I’m not clear why they didn’t have a change of mind after watching what Aaron Naughton did to Aleer in round 21, but I digress.
Then, Will Hayward was shipped off when he didn’t want to go, Henry Hustwaite was thrown in like an extra potato cake, and Ollie Florent was offered around like that spare potato cake after everyone has had a gutful of chips.
I don’t know why it was so openly transactional and occasionally antagonistic this year, compared to previous years where players’ wants and needs were regularly put ahead of the club, but it felt like a shift.
Maybe clubs know more money is coming down the pike for players and factors that used to matter like childcare costs or family are considered less relevant by clubs to increasingly wealthy players?
Whatever the case may be, something changed.
3. There’s an arms race happening
Imagine if the Cold War was happening between middle powers, rather than Russia and the United States.
Imagine it was between Canada and Belarus or something (yes, I know Belarus was in the USSR).
That’s what happened in this trade period.
The two best teams this year played off in the Grand Final.
The same two teams likely to be the major powers again in 2026,after adding talent in positions that they needed.
The second and third tiers of the league, however, have almost all topped up or attempted to top up in a bid to enter that elite tier:
- Adelaide, who finished top, will add Cal Ah Chee.
- Gold Coast added Petracca and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan.
- GWS grabbed Clayton Oliver.
- Hawthorn made a run at Zach Merrett.
- Sydney got Charlie Curnow.
The only ones in the top-10 that didn’t add or try to add mature talent were Collingwood (oldest list in the league with no capital), Freo (youngest list with expectations of growth), and the Bulldogs (got Connor Budarick to fill a need).
All those clubs finished with 48 or more points this season. The next best was 36.
To do that topping up, they largely pillaged the struggling clubs who were looking to reset.
That’s especially true of Carlton and Melbourne who clearly want to go in different directions culturally.
The only club that bucked the trend was the big spending Saints, who clearly have prioritised having adults in the room and are willing to pay sticker price to get them.
What does it all mean?
Firstly, it’s interesting to see how little draft capital is valued by good clubs over the next two drafts.
Secondly, I suspect that the AFL’s middle class, which was virtually non-existent in 2025, just got smaller.