Not sure if you’ve heard, but it’s the AFL Preliminary Final weekend of the century.
Terrific.
Heading into the weekend, I used my time to look backwards.
Not at the 2008 or 2023 Grand Finals, but instead at the last game that the preliminary finalists played against each other this season.
Here’s one burning question I have for each game on the big picture, and one smaller personnel question that has to be answered.
Geelong v Hawthorn
Last time they met: Round 6 at the MCG.
Result: Cats by 7 points.
Big Question: Can Hawthorn find enough end product against the Cats?
For basically my entire lifetime, these two have gone at each other like they’re Batman and the Joker.
They complete each other.
Unlike Batman and the Joker, who are partly responsible for Zack Snyder’s Justice League and the PTSD that came alongside Jared Leto’s mediocre work, the Hawks and Cats always produce classics.
Round 6 was no exception.
What struck me was that while Geelong’s pressure was a feature early in the game, the Hawks were successful at moving the ball down the wings usually by handball.
They went full Arturo Gatti and fought fire with fire, running at the Cats who are used to running at teams themselves.
Their issue was that they lacked end product.
While they missed some sitters especially late, despite taking just two fewer scoring shots, they clearly lost the expected score and had one of their worst games of the year at taking the ball from D50 to a score.
They were Lindsay Bluth style good flirters bad closers.
The Cats just abused the Lions with their pressure, but Brisbane are the AFL’s top kicking side.
Plan A, B, and C for Brisbane are some version of Postecoglou-style “kick through it, lads”.
The Hawks, on the other hand, kick the ball 21 times less than Brisbane on average, and had their sixth fewest kicks of the season against Geelong in Round 6.
They can do both.
Can the Geelong pressure carry over? Or Can the Hawks handball game get through the Geelong press again, and this time carry them into more dangerous parts of the ground?
Sub-question: What do you do about Jai Newcombe?
All season I’ve said the Hawks just don’t have enough star quality to win a premiership. Jai Newcombe is making me look a right moron.
He’s going full Margot Robbie and making himself into a star before our very eyes.
But now he comes up against Geelong.
With those three, the Cats are the number one team in the AFL at stopping opponents from turning first possession of the ball into a clearance.
It’s the unstoppable force versus the immovable object.
Tip: Geelong’s pressure is peaking and their defensive mids are good enough to blunt Hawthorn. Cats by a goal.
Brisbane v Collingwood
Last time they met: Round 21 at the MCG.
Result: Lions by 27 points.
Big Question: Can Collingwood get the ball enough?
This one is simple but important.
Brisbane is the AFL’s number one disposal differential team.
They want nothing more than to be the kid that takes his ball and runs home.
Collingwood is more of a sharing team, sitting 12th in disposal differential.
They essentially don’t mind if you have the ball, as long as it’s in their half and under their pressure so they can set up and explode quickly when they get it back.
It’s classic styles make fights, but it went to the extreme in Round 21.
Brisbane had their best ball-control day of the season: +85 disposals, +22 contested ball, +30 ground balls, all while taking just 83 marks.
It was a demolition led by Lachie Neale’s 20 contested possessions and 16 ground ball gets.
Even if you don’t necessarily need that much of the ball, you can’t just not have it at all.
That lack of Collingwood presence around the ground meant Brisbane entered their 50 as they pleased. Logan Morris, with his quick and clever movement inside 50 was the key beneficiary, kicking 6 goals from just two contested marks.
The Pies need to be able to make life harder around the ball for Brisbane.
Sub-question: How big of a factor are injuries?
Big.
In that round 21 game, De Goey was still waddling around, and McReery, Cox and Frampton all didn’t play.
Bobby Hill, who is still a question mark but looking unlikely, played but his mind clearly wasn’t there.
Generally, there are big personnel questions for Collingwood but the biggest one, to me, is Jeremy Howe.
Let’s assume Jeremy Howe is 80% of the player we expect him to be.
Collingwood’s defensive system relies heavily on two things: pressure and third-man-up support.
When either of those pillars is missing, the Magpies’ backline is exposed.
As a unit they’re strong, but in pure one-on-one contests most of them struggle.
That’s why crafty forwards, like Morris or Jack Gunston, can get off the leash.
Gunston showed it in Round 22 when Howe was concussed early; he kicked four goals the week after Morris kicked six in essentially the same type of lead-up heavy, movement-based game
Forwards who thrive on smart movement and defensive confusion are exactly the type who punish Collingwood when their system breaks down.
Hill and McReery obviously contribute to the pressure side, but 80% of Howe is good enough to get in Brisbane’s way.
Let’s now assume that Lachie Neale won’t play because he himself has said he needs divine intervention to be able to play in the Grand Final.
Neale’s 20 contested possessions were the difference in Round 21.
To not have one of the best ground-ball players in footy first because he’s not there, and second because you’re asking second bananas to do the job of a first banana.
Sometimes they can do it, like Josh Dunkley and Will Ashcroft did last week.
But backing it up is generally the question.
Tip: If ever there was a team to be without one of footy’s best clearance players against, it’s Collingwood and Ned Long.
Brisbane by 15.