Well, the season is finally over.
After one of the worst seasons in recent memory, where the AFL imitated life and was racked by debilitating inequality, we have the rich guys playing off against each other.
It’s Elon v Sam Altman in this great southern land.
It should be pretty good.
The nine teams that turned into eight and made the finals felt dramatically better than the nine teams that turned into ten and didn’t make the finals.
And now, finally, the good teams have no choice but to play each other.
To help us make sense of the upcoming finals series, we have the great and powerful Andrew Whelan from WheeloRatings’ premiership metrics.
To the uninitiated, the premiership metrics are a series of numbers that have been good at predicting premiers for the last 15 years, or four years depending on what numbers were available at a given time.
Essentially, if you’re in the top six in the competition in the home-and-away season across this subset of numbers, you are in the mix to win the premiership according to these numbers.
Now, all the maths whizzes will note that correlation doth not equal causation.
Good for you Rain Man, putting all that together!
I’m not saying the opposite, I’m just saying that these numbers are a pretty good indicator of what has mattered recently in the AFL when it comes to winning at a high level.
To make these numbers more interesting than they otherwise would be, we’re running through them with quotes from the Jonah Hill and Michael Cera classic, Superbad.
“I’m over here in my unit, isolated and alone, eating my terrible tasting food and I gotta look over at that. It looks like the most fun I’ve ever seen in my life” – Geelong, Adelaide
These numbers don’t factor in Izak Rankine being out, which probably precludes Adelaide from making the Grand Final.
But that’s not the point of this column.
The point is to look at the numbers.
And based on the numbers, every other team is looking enviously at Evan and his partner making tiramisu while they wash and dry like they’re single mothers.
The Cats and Crows are the only two teams that have top four units when they both have and don’t have the ball.
Geelong is a particular juggernaut with the ball and for territory, sitting no worse than fourth in any of the metrics that matter.
Adelaide’s better unit, however, is surprising. It’s not their star-studded forward line, though that is pretty good sitting fourth in the league.
In fact, their defence is the second best in footy.
That feels insane, given their personnel, but maybe it isn’t.
Maybe the All-Australian selectors and I are late to the party on Worrell and Keane being the new Ray Lewis and Ed Reed.
In any case, these two teams are clearly the envy of the competition by the numbers.
“Uhhhh…it’s 10:33” – Hawthorn
Okay so in the section above, I ignored a personnel concern because that’s not the point of the column.
I’m ignoring the point of the column here.
Like Fogel staring at a whale tail, Hawthorn can’t believe where they are.
Every other finals team has at least one top 25 player, Hawthorn doesn’t have a single top 50 player playing this finals series.
And yet, in a true triumph of coaching genius, they are one of the teams that is “in the window” according to the numbers.
They were found out a bit against Brisbane in Round 24, where their lack of an alpha dog midfielder was exposed by Dunkley, McCluggage, and Ashcroft. I suspect they’ll be found out again come finals time, left fumbling for a response.
Still, they could tell us all what time it is.
“Wait you changed your name to McLovin?” – Collingwood, Brisbane
Hawaii is a good state to pick. Looks like the license number is right. Wow this really looks legit.
All looking good for the boys.
Then they look and Fogel has picked McLovin.
They were so close to being able to buy booze, and yet they were so far!
All because Fogel went with the name of an Irish R&B singer.
That’s Collingwood and Brisbane.
Both teams have one elite side of the ball and one relatively mediocre side.
For the Pies, their elite side of the ball is their defence and it proves that science is a liar sometimes as I wrote earlier this season.
While their defensive numbers are the best in the league, their system is fragile and their strong numbers are propped up by a dominant early part of the year.
But again, the point is the numbers.
For the Lions, it’s their attack and territory game which are third best in the competition.
It’s a shame about the other side of the ball for both.
“Enjoy f**king Jules.” “I WILL.” – Gold Coast
Gold Coast is pumped to be there for the first time, just like Seth would be.
But this is them wanting to lose their virginity before college because you don’t want girls to think you suck d**k at f**king p***y.
It’s a practice run, and they should be overjoyed to be there.
But they’ll be better next year.
By the numbers, this is a mid-team.
Fifth best with the ball, sixth best without. Nothing elite, nothing awful. Just okay.
But with another year in the Hardwick system, with Dan Rioli back, and with the possibility of adding Charlie Curnow, the Suns will almost certainly be better for having had the run this year.
“You ever seen a v*****a by itself? Not for me.” – GWS, Fremantle
They’re in it, they have good players.
On paper, they should be contenders.
But the numbers say, despite their obvious appeal, not for me.
At least not on their own.
GWS’ superpower is scoring from the back half, a number in which they led the league.
They were the only team in the AFL to score more points from the back half than from the front half.
The premiership metrics say that doesn’t matter.
Fremantle’s superpower was killing ball movement.
They were third at each of stopping scoring from the back half, stopping teams moving the ball from D50 to F50, and stopping teams going from their back half to a score
Again, the metrics say it doesn’t matter.
Conventional wisdom says these are important things to be good at.
But if that’s all you’re good at?
The premiership metrics say “not for me.”