Diagnosing the Sydney Swans

Diagnosing the Sydney Swans

GuyWhoLikesSport

The Swans have come to Dr LikesSport.

This time last year, they were 9-1 with a percentage of 155 and had just beaten Carlton by nine goals.

This year, they’re 4-6 with a percentage of 99 and required Isaac Heeney to strap on the cape in the second half to beat a worse Carlton team by 16 points.

They know that a win over Carlton in the toughest watch since The Zone of Interest is not the cure.

They need a diagnosis.

They have three major issues.

1. Personnel

The personnel issues are twofold and inform their other problems.

Firstly, their extensive injury list.

Heading into Round 10, the following first-choice players were unavailable: Errol Gulden, Logan McDonald, Lewis Melican, Callum Mills, Tom Papley.

Trying to play especially without Papley and Warner for Sydney is like Tony Soprano trying to operate without Silvio.

They might not be the most important players to the side, but they are crucial to its proper functioning.

Papley and Gulden provide forward half ingenuity and back half run.

For a team like Sydney that lacks key position talent on either side of the ball, losing that is losing everything – that’s the second problem.

Even with Joel Amartey back against Carlton (for the short-term), they have no aerial presence forward of the ball.

Similarly, their key defensive stocks are so thin that Nick Blakey had to play on Harry McKay for periods, further stifling their run.

Key positions were a problem last year, but everything else was so good they covered it up.

These injuries are rubbing salt into an existing wound.

2. Loss of Identity

What do Sydney do well in 2025?

I don’t know either.

If you asked me that question last year, I could have answered it easily.

They were footy’s best chaos team.

The only way to beat them last year was to take control of a game, and not many teams could do it.

Each time Sydney gave up more than 101 marks they were 0-6.

They were otherwise 19-1.

Teams had to be perfect to get through the chaotic Sydney press, and it’s hard to be perfect.

The ability to induce chaos like they’re The Joker meant that the Swans were the best at stopping opponents going from D50 to a score, and the best at scoring from the forward half.

This year in the same metrics, they’re 12th and 14th respectively and opponents no longer have to be perfect to win.

Part of that is not having Papley, but part of it is being less intense than they were last year – averaging 20 less pressure acts per game.

They still defend high up the field and try to get pressure on the ball as it comes out – and they did have some success in the second half against Carlton getting goals from the front half – but in this area, the Swans are a tribute band.

The Rolling Clones to last year’s Rolling Stones.

3. Forward line efficiency

This one is more symptom than cause.

Last year, the Swans were so good from the front half and at generating turnovers that they were able to get a plethora of players decent shots despite having subpar actual forwards.

They also moved the ball brilliantly from the back half, changing angles and keeping defences guessing.

Their system raised the floor of their scoring ability.

They were like a show where the script was so good that the actors are kind of irrelevant – like the first season of Succession.

The Swans were second best at getting a scoring shot when they went inside 50 and at kicking a goal when they went inside 50, no team had more goalscorers per game

This year, because their pressure is down and because they have so many good players not playing, they’re 16th at both kicking a goal and getting a scoring shot when they go inside 50, eighth at taking the ball from the back half to a score, all while having 1.5 fewer goal scorers every game.

Everything is worse.

It feels like every time they get to 80m out, they’re content with a shallow entry and a prayer that maybe Peter Laddams or Joel Amartey will channel their inner Wayne Carey and take a pack mark. Maybe even kick a goal.

It’s an impossible way to live.

So, is it terminal?

This year, yes.

While they’d be 6-4 by expected win, part of the reason they’re not converting goals that they should that they don’t have the horses to convert, and it’s difficult to know what you can expect from players like Papley and Gulden after long-term injuries.

Going forward, however, those expected score numbers are positive.

They still do a lot right.

While they still have Warner and Heeney playing well, and now that they’ve returned Tom McCartin back to defence, if they can find a key forward somewhere I expect them to come back and be a force again next season.

I hear there’s one in the West that might be looking for a new home?

If they can get him or some other key position help, get their guys healthy again, and get their pressure game back up I see no reason why Sydney can’t threaten again next year.