Two and a Half Lions

Two and a Half Lions

GuyWhoLikesSport

Remember Two and a Half Men after Charlie Sheen left? Me neither.

The show kept its infrastructure—Alan, the kid, the stalker, and the interchangeable girlfriends—but without Sheen, it fell flat.

Ashton Kutcher was a like-for-like replacement, but it just didn’t work.

Brisbane faces a similar dilemma with Joe Daniher’s retirement in 2025, but they’re taking a different approach.

You figure Brisbane will continue to prioritise the things that they have prioritised the entire way through Fagan’s tenure.

Their game will probably continue to be built around the contest, an area of the ground that they figure to be even better in with Will Ashcroft playing a full season and Levi Ashcroft coming in.

When they have the ball in the back half, they will move it forward methodically and effectively with a good kicking game.

I bet they lean into the jacked up risk appetite that they showed in the finals series last year, especially with Kidean Coleman coming back to help Zorko provide bounce off half back.

They’ll also keep on owning territory because of their ability to get intercepts high up the ground and get repeat entries.

To underline the steadfastness of Fagan’s principles, since 2019 the Lions have never been lower than sixth in inside 50s, fifth for mark differential, and third for clearances.

Last year, Brisbane was second in inside 50 differential, second in scores from turnover, and third in scores from the forward half.

While they do everything well, what they really want is territory.

So instead of a wholesale change to what Fagan wants to do, I expect a tweak in the way that they exert their territory dominance.

Last year, with Daniher, the Lions were second in the AFL for marks inside 50 and seventh in inside 50-mark rate. Daniher was clearly their leading marker inside 50, with 2.4 per game compared to just 1.8 for Eric Hipwood, who figures to be the de facto lead dog now that Daniher is out.

Joe was also their leading goal kicked with 58 goals for the season including finals. Their next best key forward, again Eric Hipwood, kicked 33.

I don’t say this to be mean. Hipwood is definitively not good enough to be a number one forward in the AFL, especially for a contender.

In the offseason, the Lions brought in Sam Day but he’s more insurance than fix.

There’s nobody else on the list with any meaningful key forward experience.

So, I ask again, how do they recreate Joe Daniher while sticking to their Napoleonic thirst for territory?

They pull a Jonah Hill in Moneyball and recreate him in the aggregate.

Hand in hand with their upped risk level when coming from the back half, expect Brisbane to introduce a smidge more chaos into their games in 2025.

Brisbane last year was among the worst pressure teams in the AFL.

They were second last in tackles and in pressure acts, though a lot of that owes to the amount of the ball that they had and how infrequently the ball was in dispute.

They were also right on the league average for tackles inside 50. That has to improve.

The way to recreate Daniher is to crank up the pressure and keep the ball inside 50 with pressure rather than just marks.

They did it in the Grand Final.

Each of Cam Rayner, Charlie Cameron, Kai Lohmann, and Callum Ah Chee had nine or more pressure acts in the game, while Eric Hipwood had eight and Zac Bailey had six.

While they have had Cameron, Bailey, and Rayner for years, the emergence of Lohmann and Ah Chee…

…as well as the impending addition of Levi Ashcroft gives them a fleet of medium to small type players who can add juice to the forward line.

They can still be a lead up and mark team like they were last year given both Cameron and Lohmann were top-6 in marks inside 50 among general forwards, but the personnel tweaks should improve pressure when they don’t mark the ball.

More than that, Brisbane was already second in inside 50 ground balls last season. My bet is they’re first by quite a margin this year with their personnel changes.

I expect that Brisbane will take fewer marks inside 50 but get more ground balls, free kicks, and balls locked inside 50 rather than all repeat entries.

They will stay territory dominant.

Even without Daniher, and without departing from their principles, I have faith that Fagan and the Lions can avoid Two and a Half Men-itis now that their main man is gone.

They just have to pull a slightly different lever.

 

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