New Swans Coach, Same Sydney Problems

New Swans Coach, Same Sydney Problems

GuyWhoLikesSport

On the iconic series MadMen, Don Draper was married to Betty—on the surface, they looked like the perfect couple.

But Don was never satisfied, always searching for something (or someone) new to fix his deeper issues.

The link/pop culture reference I’m making is that the Sydney Swans have a new coach.

After five Grand Finals for one premiership, John Longmire is out, handing the reins to Dean Cox. But just like Don, a fresh start won’t magically solve old problems.

Here’s a fact: Sydney will be pretty good next season.

Here’s another one: a new coach can’t fix the problems from 2024.

Their problems are closer to the champagne variety, but the Swans simply have an unbalanced list.

But let’s put the first thing first: despite the Grand Final, Sydney was a good side in 2024.

They were the best at scoring from the forward half and from turnover, they were third at scoring from stoppage and fourth from the back half on their way to being the highest scoring team in footy.

They were an elite pressure team that also led footy in metres gained with precise, surging ball movement.

They were also a top-5 scoring defence, built on pressure up the ground and stopping teams from building from the back half.

The problem for Sydney was that they could only play one way because of their personnel.

All of Sydney’s elite talent was either concentrated in the middle of the ground or was not a key position player.

Isaac Heeney played predominantly midfield for the first time in his career.

Then you have Chad Warner, Errol Gulden, Callum Mills, and Brodie Grundy who are all middle of the ground players.

After them there’s Will Hayward, Tom Papley, and Nick Blakey, who are stars but not key position players.

The only key position “star” for Sydney is Dane Rampe who is 34 and 189 centimetres. He’s batted above his weight his whole career.

It’s bug not feature that Sydney averaged nine different goal-kickers per game in 2024. they didn’t have a real key forward a so they scored based on style, using their speed and burst, combined with territory dominance to get a variety of scorers.

Similarly, their defence fell apart when teams could pick through their pressure and challenge defenders to win battles without the built-in advantage of kicks inside 50 being pressured.

Sydney could only play one way. Whenever another team took control of a game, Sydney lost.

The best example was in the Grand Final. Brisbane took 151 marks and held Sydney under 30 points from turnover and from the forward half for only the third time in the season.

Brisbane had so much control over the game and stretched Sydney so dramatically that Sydney’s pressure was totally ineffective.

That pattern happened all season. Each time Sydney gave up more than 101 marks they lost. They were 0-6 including finals.

They were otherwise 19-1.

Sydney was like Walter White when he was working for Gus with Gale.

He had to play his way, or he wouldn’t play at all.

None of what I described is a coaching issue.

If anything, it’s a triumph of coaching that Longmire was able to get his team to a position where they were bought in enough to be as good as they were when they could realistically only win one way.

None of it figures to change after an offseason where their highest pick was number 22 and they made no additions in free agency.

This is the hand that Dean Cox has been dealt, and it will be quite remarkable if he gets a better result than John Longmire got.

In theory, maybe Sydney could try and play a more control-based game where they keep their high kick/handball ratio and high mark numbers (top-5 in both) but parlay it into slower ball movement.

However, if Brisbane’s premiership taught us anything it’s that faster ball movement wins the day.

That tac also would not make Logan McDonald or Joel Amartey more productive players.

If Dean Cox is there to get them over the top, he, like Dr Faye, is doomed to fail.

If the job is to rebuild Sydney on the fly, but to incorporate a bit more balance into the list then he has a chance.

The decision makers in Sydney need to understand what he’s working with.

 

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