Hurts’ So Good

Hurts’ So Good

GuyWhoLikesSport

The story of this Super Bowl has already been written.

Like last year, the team coming out of the NFC has better players and the team coming out of the AFC has Patrick Mahomes

More than that, they’re the same teams as two years ago.

In a sense, there isn’t much to say.

Many of the principals from two years ago are the same, other than a significant youth movement on the defensive side of the ball from both teams.

Because of that, the most important person in the game is the biggest variable: Jalen Hurts and the passing game.

We know what we’re getting from everyone but him.

So much hinges on the quarterback in every game in the NFL, obviously.

However, it feels to me like the variability of Hurts’ play could either drag the Eagles’ offence down or lift it to a level where they could compete with the Chiefs.

That doesn’t mean to say that Hurts is the most talented player on the field, or even particularly close to it, he’s probably the tenth best player on his own team, which is one of the most stacked 53-man rosters I have ever seen, but he is the most important.

He’s like a character actor in a TV show who is not top-billed, but who so much hinges upon in a given storyline.

If he plays as well as he did against Washington in the Championship game,

it will be a Mr Milchick in Severance type of performance.

He’s not the most talented actor in an incredible cast, but his role is crucial as the face of Lumon’s cheery menace.

Across the season, we have seen probably the most conservative version of Jalen Hurts that we’ve seen since he established himself as a good to borderline elite quarterback

Part of that is because he’s playing with the best defence in the league and with the best running game, which means that he can afford to take less risks because his team would probably still win.

However, it doesn’t change the fact that his level of play did often leave a talented offence feeling stuck in the mud.

The Eagles averaged just the 29th most passing yards per game across the whole year, just behind the New York Giants.

Hurts had his lowest average depth of target since becoming a starter this season despite throwing to weapons like AJ Brown and Devonta Smith and threw a career low number of 20+ air yard passes.

For a team with this much talent, Hurts’ consistent inability to throw across the middle and unwillingness to dial up his risk appetite in key spots held them back.

If he plays like he did in the Divisional Round against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, they won’t be able to keep up with an offence that is hitting its stride with Hollywood Brown back in the lineup.

What made Hurts’ game against Washington so impressive by comparison was his willingness to trust the weapons he has on the outside and make throws down the field.

He made multiple money throws in big moments to the outside, trusting his weapons to win on the outside.

To do that, he upped his risk appetite on the season while still leaning into what he does best.

Hurts doesn’t throw well to the middle of the field or on the run, but he is a good thrower to the outside and an excellent deep ball thrower when he has time to step into them.

Against Washington he generated 21 points of total EPA on his own and was 16% above his expected completion percentage.

Part of that is that the good players he has on the outside made big, contested plays, but that’s exactly the point.

He has good players, trust them to make plays.

It was his best game since the last Super Bowl.

This was Hurts’ Milchick in the break room moment.

In that room, Milchick’s plastered on smile was gone and it was all menace as we understood the gravity of the moment. He dispensed with the cheer and leant into the undertone of the that first season.

In the same way, Hurts leant into a key part of himself, understanding that the moment called for a clearer distillation of what makes him good.

If Hurts is willing and able to punish Steve Spagnuolo’s defence by testing their corners on the outside, particularly in pressure looks, the Eagles and their stacked roster from 1-53 could be the team to finally slay the Chiefs in the playoffs.

If he reverts to how he has played for most of this season, they probably won’t be able to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and his ability to never lose.

 

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