One Last job for Collingwood in 2025

One Last job for Collingwood in 2025

GuyWhoLikesSport

Craig McRae and Scott Pendlebury are sitting in a bar, pondering what was in 2024 and what could be in 2025.

Pendlebury’s head is slouched on the bar, apparently watching the TV but his eyes are glazed over.

McRae is nursing a Glenfiddich 21 that has been in his glass so long it no longer tastes like whiskey, it’s just brown water.

“Perryman gives us bounce.” McRae says as Pendlebury doesn’t acknowledge him.

McRae continues to fidget.

“Then Membrey gives us a forward. A bit of bounce and a forward should do it don’t you think.”

No acknowledgement from Pendlebury again.

“You think we need one more? You think we need one more. Alright we’ll get one more”

McRae downed his drink with a grimace and left the bar briefly.

“Houston is in. One last run.”

Like Danny Ocean and Rusty Ryan working out how to rob the Bellagio

Scott Pendlebury, Craig McRae and the Collingwood brain trust have gone all in on seasons 2025 and 2026.

They have to know that if they don’t win the whole thing this year or next, then it’s over for the team that fielded the oldest and most experienced team in the AFL last season and then doubled down on age and experience this offseason.

The Pies brought in three 120+ game players in their mid-late 20s at the expense of picks, including their next two first rounders (Tim Membrey was free). This is after a 2023 trade period where they traded yet another first round pick for a pressure forward in Lachie Schultz.

It’s a Collingwood team that knows they jagged a premiership in 2023 when they weren’t the best team in it.

They also know that their aggressive game style stood up at the end of last when they were finally fully healthy. They went 4-1 in their last five games including a win against the premiers and nearly snuck into the finals.

Over that five game period, the Pies were third in footy at scoring from the forward half and fifth at scoring from stoppage and they led the league in shots per inside 50. They were also fifth in tackles inside 50.

Defensively they were also elite, sitting sixth in opponent expected score and second in goals per inside 50 given up. They didn’t give up more than 89 points over the final five weeks of the year.

Their issue was that they struggled with getting quality shots, sitting 13th in expected score per shot.

Across the whole year last season, the Pies were poor at scoring from the back half, sitting 15th, but they were still reliant on a slingshot style of play.

They try to generate turnover higher up the ground than they did in 2023 and get the ball moving quickly into an open forward line, which is an acknowledgement of a lack of talent.

They rely on that slingshot style of play around the ball as well. They manufacture it by having extra numbers (usually taken from the forward line) on the periphery of stoppages so they can launch their explosive runners like they’re detonating the pinch.

That sort of game style showed in their numbers. They were fourth at scoring from the forward half and top eight at scoring from both stoppage and turnover.

They’re acceptable not elite numbers.

Dan Houston, with some help from another back half runner in Harry Perryman, can make them elite in those numbers.

Among all general defenders who played at least 20 games, Houston was 11th in rebound 50s and sixth in inside 50s.

He was also seventh in score involvements among all general defenders, having a hand in 20% of all of Port’s scoring, while retaining a kicking efficiency of 82%.

This is a player who can happily sit outside of stoppages and prey on clear air. He’s equally good at freeing runners with his exceptional kicking for them to go inside 50, or delivering it inside 50 himself.

The other big issue that I mentioned for Collingwood was a lack of talent up forward.

Their tendency to keep three forwards at home is a floor raiser for them because of the space they can give to their forwards, but at a certain point you can’t make lemonade anymore.

The Pies took the tenth most marks inside 50 in the AFL last season despite getting some of the cleanest entries in footy.

With Tim Membrey, they’ve clearly decided to go to the shops and just buy some lemonade.

Membrey is not an elite player by any stretch, but he is an AFL forward.

That instantly makes him the best forward at Collingwood.

Other than 2023 when Membrey only played seven matches, Membrey has kicked at least 1.5 goals per game in every year since 2016 on one of the least dynamic teams in footy over that span.

He’s had seven 30 goal seasons.

Membrey is also forever available. Since 2016, he’s played at least 17 games every year other than 2023.

Dan McStay hasn’t played 17 games since 2022 and has never kicked 30 goals in a season in his career. Brody Mihocek, Collingwood’s other key forward is 31 and coming off a torn pec.

By adding Membrey to a team that prides itself on fast, high quality forward 50 entries (the Pies were fifth in marks inside 50 over the last five games of the season despite their best forward being Reef McInnes), they can instantly knock every other player down a defender, while also affording Membrey some space.

The simple fact of Membrey being there virtually every week, means every other C+ player in their forward line gets a worse defender.

It might even free up Jordan De Goey to play more midfield time if he decided to go for a jog or two this offseason and make them more explosive.

https://twitter.com/AFLcomau/status/1882656736668241999

He doesn’t have to dominate games and kick 80 goals he just has to be there and the Pies explosive ball movement will find him.

Explosive ball movement that just got better with the addition of Dan Houston.

Adding those guys to a team that already has serious talent in the Daicos brothers, Isaac Quaynor, Jordan De Goey and the rest of them is a statement of intent by Collingwood.
The Pies are doubling down, and they’re not even bothering with a fake safe.

They’re telling the league what they’ll do.

They’re just betting that with their age and experience, they can drop in established players, give them defined roles and keep the train rolling.

Whether it will work, I have no idea. It’s dangerous, as they found last year, to rely on older guys. They tend to get injured.

But I love it anyway.

The point of the AFL isn’t to be good for as long as possible, it’s to win at the highest level as much as possible. Collingwood has accepted that, and they’ve gone all in on plugging gaps in an already talented list, secure in the knowledge that if they don’t win it this year or next the bottom will probably fall out.

It’s one last job at Collingwood.

 

Like what you read from our hard-hitting columnist?

Follow @Guywholikessport on Twitter or check out his FULL BLOG HERE