I really should be on stress leave after Week 13 and more specifically the NFL hosted pot we had on the Neds app last week.
What an insane (but good) ride we had as 75 punters joined me in the Punteroos group and we had a very successful week, turning $1,875 into $3,148.75 across the Thanksgiving long weekend of games!
Week 14 rolls on in and I’m strictly punting for myself this week but I’m tipping for you!
I’ve run my eyes over every game and here’s what I like for Week 14 of the NFL season.
The early Thanksgiving games were not something I was willing to wake up and watch here in Aus but we’re back to normal this week and we should be treated to a proper shootout in this NFC North clash.
I feel like I say it every week but this is the Lions’ season to lose, they are easily the best team in football but will be properly tested this week against a GB side that are good in their own right.
Green Bay ran through the Dolphins last week and will be full of confidence here which makes this 3.5 point line a nightmare to choose a side for.
I’m wussing out and taking the overs in total points, we should see some high powered offense here from both sides!
My Bets
- Over 51 Total Points @ $1.90
- Jared Goff 200+ Passing Yards
- Jordan Love 200+ Passing Yards
- Amon-Ra St Brown 60+ Receiving Yards
- Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime Touchdown Scorer
The only thing that excites me about this game is the weight it carries for the 2025 Draft Order.
The Titans are 3-9 and currently have the 7th pick and the 2-10 Jags currently have the first overall and you’d imagine neither side would be upset to lose out from here.
It’s probably going to be easier for the Jags to lose this, their defence is shot to bits and will be without Trevor Lawrence who probably should put his feet up for the rest of the year.
He’s battling a shoulder injury and now has scrambled egg brain thanks to a dogshot in the Texans game.
Mac Jones will lead this team out and a loss for Jacksonville is where I’m leaning.
They’re getting closer to locking in Travis Hunter!
My Bets
- Tennessee Titans -3.5 @ $1.90
- Tony Pollard 60+ Rushing Yards
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine Anytime Touchdown Scorer
The Dolphins return to Florida this week for a game against the Jets that they really should win if they want to make a playoff run.
New York are on a three game losing streak and while they did keep it close against Seattle last week, it will likely be too tall of an order to keep up with the Miami offense in a warmer climate.
Despite losing 14+ Tua still threw for 365 pass yards last week and I’d imagine they run up the score against the Jets here.
My Bets
- Dolphins -6 @ $1.87
- Tua Tagovailoa 250+ Passing Yards
- DeVon Achane Anytime Touchdown Scorer
It was a close win for the Vikings last week who came back to beat the Cardinals in a game where they trailled for majority of it.
This week they take on a Falcons side that could be fading, it was a rough showing for Big Kirko and the Falcons last week, four interceptions and no passing touchdowns for the great man.
Could we see calls for Michael Penix to start soon?
The Vikings are on a five game win streak and should get this done, I like Justin Jefferson to finally break his cold streak of no TDs too.
My Bets
- Vikings -5.5 @ $1.90
- Justin Jefferson 75+ Receiving Yards
- Justin Jefferson Anytime Touchdown Scorer
We saw these two only a couple of weeks ago in what ended up being a wild game in very heavy snow.
The Browns offense is humming but the Browns offense is also costing them games this year.
Famous Jameis was huge last week but two pick-sixes inevitably cost them a chance of winning against Denver.
The Steelers defense is far too good in my eyes and should shut down Cleveland here.
My Bets
- Steelers -6.5 @ $1.90
- Najee Harris 60+ Rushing Yards
- Pittsburgh D/ST Anytime Touchdown
Do not sleep on Carolina here.
The Panthers aren’t quite winning just yet but they have looked like terrific losers these past few weeks.
Bryce Young is playing at an incredibly high level this last month and has taken teams like the Chiefs, Bucs and Saints right to the very limit and have a win against the Giants to their name.
The 12.5 point line looks disrespectful to me, sure the Eagles are a powerhouse but the Panthers are being slept on here.
So I think the Panthers can beat the Eagles?
No that’s probably not likely but they absolutely cover a 12 point line.
Carolina are not the team that the market reflects.
My Bets
- Panthers +12.5 @ $1.90
- Bryce Young 225+ Passing Yards
- Saquon Barkley 80+ Rushing Yards
- Saquon Barkley/ Jonathan Brooks 2+ Touchdowns Combined
It wasn’t a runaway win by the Bucs last week but it was enough for me to say that Tampa have their swagger back.
Bucky Irving has officially broken out and taken over the RB1 responsibilities in Tampa and I like them to lean on both him and Evans in a game against the Raiders that they should win comfortably.
Sure the Raiders have kept it close against the Chiefs in recent times and seem to have a good defence but this Tampa offense can get hot and run up the scoreboard in the blink of an eye.
TB to cover, Bucky Irving for a monster day.
My Bets
- Buccaneers -6.5 @ $1.90
- Bucky Irving Anytime Touchdown
- Bucky Irving 75+ Rushing Yards
Giants = really, really bad… but the Saints aren’t that much better.
This is a must lose game for NY here if they have ambitions of Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders and I like them to do it.
The Saints are a bad team but they at least have some identity in Alvin Kamara and should lean on him to get it done here.
My Bets
- Saints -5 @ $1.90
- Alvin Kamara 75+ Rushing Yards
- Alvin Kamara Anytime Touchdown Scorer
BIRD BOWL. BIRD BOWL. BIRD BOWL.
After a narrow loss to the Vikings last week, Arizona have somehow come into this game against the Seahawks as favourites in an NFC West game that has massive playoff implications.
Seattle are on a three game winning streak and have looked very impressive in that stretch against some high quality teams… and the Jets.
I love Kyler, I really do but this Seahawks team look like a unit and I’m not sure if the Cards have it in them to stop the likes of Geno, DK, JSN and K9.
My Bets
- Seattle Seahawks H2H @ $2.20
- Kenneth Walker 60+ Yards
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Buffalo are hitting form at the right time this season.
My word they looked good against the 49ers last week, imagine how good they’ll play in LA where it doesn’t snow and they’ll be able to plant their feet in the ground firmly without fear of an achilles blowing out.
The Rams played well last week if all you wanted was yardage, but a final score of 21-14 over the Saints does not fill me with hope against Buffalo.
My Bets
- Buffalo Bills -4.5 @ $1.90
- James Cook 75+ Rushing Yards
- James Cook Anytime Touchdown
How can you honestly look at the output the 49ers have rolled out these last three weeks and say that they’re $1.50 favourites over Chicago.
The 49ers lost both CMC and Jordan Mason last week and the ability to move the ball downfield will solely rest on the shoulders of rookie Isaac Guerendo who has looked good in his cameos but it’s a lot of pressure.
Yes, Chicago has lost six straight games but majority of those losses have been by one score maximum or sheer dumbf**kery from Matt Eberflus and he’s now not with the team. (If that sentence is censored, I’ve lost a battle with my editor).
Caleb Williams has put on an absolute show these last few weeks and even though the games haven’t gone their way this is absolutely winnable for Chi-Town. I’m taking them to win.
My Bets
- Bears H2H @ $2.65
- Caleb Williams 250+ Passing Yards
- Caleb Williams 2+ Passing Touchdowns
For the first time this year I am tipping a Chiefs loss.
Kansas City keep finding ways to win this year but have not won a game by 14+ once yet this season.
It seems like every week they are keeping teams in the game and I don’t believe a team like the Chargers will let them get away with leaving a door open here.
LA are red hot right now, they’ve come close to beating KC already this year, this could be the game they actually go and do it.
My Bets
- Chargers H2H @ $2.65
- Justin Herbert 225+ Passing Yards
- Gus Edwards Anytime Touchdown
Why am I looking forward to this game?
The Simpsons broadcast… and that’s it.
Dallas sucks, I hate them and Cincy keep finding ways to let Joe Burrow down.
Fascinated to see what Simpsons character they’ll use for the Bengals defence, maybe 11 Molemans? Perhaps Old Gil?
Bengals SHOULD win this but it is on MNF, anything can and will happen.
My Bets
- Bengals -5.5 @ $1.90
- Joe Burrow 250+ Passing Yards
- Chase Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- Homer J Simpson Under 0.5 Yards Rushing
Thank god I had some winners in the hosted pot this week because it was another close loss for our fantasy team, 8 yards short from Stroud and 6 from Puka.
We go again.
Just to recap in Week 13 we had:
- Quarterback: CJ Stroud Over 250+ Passing Yards X
- Runningback: Bucky Irving 60+ Rushing Yards ✓
- Runningback: Alvin Kamara 60+ Rushing Yards ✓
- Wide Receiver: AJ Brown 60+ Receiving Yards ✓
- Wide Receiver: Puka Nacua 60+ Receiving Yards X
Week 13’s Fantasy team looks like this:
- Quarterback: Joe Burrow Over 250+ Passing Yards
- Runningback: Saquon Barkley 60+ Rushing Yards
- Runningback: Alvin Kamara 60+ Rushing Yards
- Wide Receiver: Justin Jefferson 60+ Receiving Yards
- Wide Receiver: Puka Nacua 60+ Receiving Yards