GUYWHOLIKESSPORT’s Burning Questions – Finals Week One

GUYWHOLIKESSPORT’s Burning Questions – Finals Week One

GuyWhoLikesSport

We’re finally in September. Melbourne is having wind storms, but thankfully none of the finals are being played there so the footy should still be watchable.

Without further delay, here’s one question I have for each game in the finals.

Port Adelaide v Geelong: Will the Corridor battle matter as much as it did in round 9?

The round 9 game between Geelong and Port Adelaide was one of the most instructive of the season, at least in terms of how it might define the finals series.

While it was played at GMHBA, so not a perfect comparison, what was striking about the game was how much of the game was played with intent to dash through the corridor and play attacking footy.

The game swung significantly after a scalding hot start by Port Adelaide, who had kicked 10.2 with 17 minutes left in the second quarter. They did it on the back of size and run.

They looked bigger, faster and stronger through the early part of the game and were able to muscle their way into the corridor time and again.

However, Geelong was ultimately able to work their way back into the game, not by slowing the game down but by fighting fire with fire.

Port kept hunting corridor into the third and fourth quarter, but Geelong started turning them over and ultimately won the score from both turnover and forward half battle.

In addition to beating Port when Port had the ball, Geelong was able to open the corridor for themselves from the back half. They got real speed on the game in the second half as they stole back and almost won the game, losing by only a goal.

In the end, Geelong had 10 scoring shots from the back half compared to just six for Port.

What does that mean for Thursday night?

While Port Adelaide has a dramatically better midfield crew, which played out in round 9, that didn’t necessarily decide the game in round 9 and I don’t think it will here.

Instead, this game is going to look like a Fitzroy auction. 36 people competing for one tiny patch of land.

At the end of this game, we’ll be able look at the heat map as much as the scoreboard to see who books themselves a spot in the preliminary final.

Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs: Is the game played on the inside or the outside?

Hawthorn and the Bulldogs are the two form teams in the AFL heading into the finals.

They’re 1 and 2 for virtually every scoring stat, every method of scoring, and a lot of the defensive stats over the last five weeks (largely because attack is the best form of defence).

It’s a shame that this is the elimination final because if footy had Pride FC rules and the team in the ascendancy at the end wins, these two would be playing in the Grand Final.

These are two of the five highest disposal outfits in the AFL, but their method of possession varies significantly.

Hawthorn are the Sean Connery James Bond.

They’re suave and they never sweat in a fist fight. They get the ball out of contest calmly and are one of the best uncontested ball teams in footy, sitting third in uncontested possession, third in loose ball gets and third in handball receives.

In short, they want the game flowing. They’re not soft but, like Connery, they make it look easy when they’re at their best.

The Bulldogs are the Daniel Craig Bond.

They bloody love a scrap.

The Dogs are the best contested ball team in football over the last five weeks by a mile. They are farther ahead of second, than second is ahead of sixth.

They want the ball in contest where they can physically dominate.

To provide the counterpoint for each side, Hawthorn is 11th in contested ball and the Dogs are 8th in uncontested ball.

Neither is intrinsically better than the other necessarily. One of the ultimate styles make fights games.

Sydney v GWS: How will the efficiency battle at either end play out?

Sydney v GWS is one of the better rivalries in modern footy, made even better by Tom Harley getting grumpy when GWS made fun of Isaac Heeney’s Johnny Depp/Amber Heard hostage video moment.

It promises to be testy, particularly if Toby Greene and Heeney himself exchange some words.

But I don’t want to focus on the biff that might well come around the ball between two excellent midfields, but instead what happens when each team gets the ball forward.

This game threatens to be like two unstoppable forces running at two immovable objects.
Across the season, Sydney and GWS are second and third in the AFL, respectively, at turning inside 50s into goals. They are both incredibly efficient.

At the other end, GWS is the best in the AFL at preventing opposition teams from turning inside 50s into goals and Sydney is the second best.

The question will be which one can either be more efficient than the other or, in lieu of efficiency, win on volume. The Swans have been the better inside 50 team, sitting 8th in total inside 50s compared to GWS’ 11th, so maybe the volume swings to them.

But then if we confine the sample to the last 5 games, Sydney was 17th in inside 50s compared to GWS’ 12th.

This game is as finely poised as it gets.

Brisbane v Carlton: How do Carlton’s returning players impact them?

You can set your watch to Brisbane.

They’re like Tobias saying double entendres in Arrested Development. You know it’s coming, but you can’t stop it.

Damn it, I did it to myself.

They’ll be physical around the ball, exert a lot of control, attack from the back half through Dayne Zorko’s aggressive kicking, and consistently generate repeat entries from the forward half and off turnover.

They’ve had basically the same core tenets for the whole of their run.

Carlton is a mystery brown bag marked “dead dove do not eat” in the fridge. My suspicion is that the bag will contain what it says it contains, but that isn’t certain.

They are getting a number of guns back. It seems likely that the forward brigade of Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay and Zac Williams are all coming back to give a toothless Blues side some teeth.

Additionally, it looks like Tom De Koning, Mitch McGovern and Sam Docherty are all certainties.

If all of those guys come in, to say nothing of Jack Martin’s possible return, a little over a quarter of the side looks set to change.

That feels more than a little desperate, but sometimes the desperate guy gets the girl.

Usually, though, you end up like Adam Sandler at the end of Uncut Gems.

 

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