2024 Grand Final SPOILER ALERTS

2024 Grand Final SPOILER ALERTS

GuyWhoLikesSport

After one of the best, least predictable seasons in recent AFL history, we have a Grand Final set. Two of the better sides of the last decade, Brisbane and Sydney, are set to battle it out on Saturday afternoon.

To preview what should be a classic Grand Final, I want to focus on three key elements of the game – when the ball is in Sydney’s forward half, when it’s in Brisbane’s forward half, and when it’s in dispute.

Working out what’s going to happen in each of those three phases will be critical to finding a winner, obviously. Let’s get into it.

When the Ball is in Dispute

This is a matter of priority.

Across the season, the Lions are football’s best contested ball differential side compared to Sydney sitting 14th. The Lions are also footy’s best hard ball get differential team and second-best clearance differential team, while Sydney are 11th and seventh, respectively.

Despite Sydney having three gun midfielders, none are contested game-wreckers.

However, while Brisbane is better at getting the ball in contested situations, the Swans focus on scoring from there. Across the season, the Swans were footy’s second best stoppage scoring side compared to Brisbane’s sixth.

It’s volume versus efficiency. Brisbane is better at getting a disputed ball, the Swans are more explosive when they do get it. Cam Rayner has to be Brisbane’s answer to this disparity.

Key Players: Lachie Neale, Cam Rayner, Isaac Heeney, James Rowbottom

When the Ball is in Brisbane’s Forward Line

The Lions forward line is like a term deposit. When the ball gets there, it stays there.

They are the AFL’s number one inside 50 team, number three at scoring from turnover, and number three forward half scoring team.

That butts against Sydney’s biggest strength which is run and exploding out of defence.

The Swans had the second best rebound 50 rate and were third best scoring from the defensive half, with their best games of the season all coming courtesy of borderline arousing ball movement from the back half.

At their best, they’re like great improvisers in movies. Like the dinner table scene in Goodfellas, they always get themselves a shot at goal that’s as good as De Niro saying “the hoof”.

Anecdotally, it appears that Sydney changed emphasis in the latter part of the year to prioritise the corridor less and the wings more as they moved the ball out of defence.

During their swoon, they were regularly demolished by opponents burning them the other way, with their losses to Port Adelaide and the Bulldogs mid-season the two games that opponents scored most from the front half.

The shift farther to the wings, while still moving the ball well, has limited opponent front-half scoring effectively given.

This is a serious battle of strengths.

Returning to the Lions, their key forward cog is clearly Charlie Cameron. While he’s a smaller player and has had a down year, he was exceptional against Geelong finding some fight and pressure for the preliminary final.

Sydney, despite a lack of great defensive personnel outside of the ageing Dane Rampe, are a strong defensive team. It’s based largely on ball pressure, so it’s not surprising that they’re number two in both stopping scoring from the defensive half and scoring from stoppage.

Key Players: Charlie Cameron, Joe Daniher, Jake Lloyd, Lewis Melican

When the Ball is in Sydney’s Forward Line

This, to me, is the key phase of the game.

Again, where the Lions are about volume, Sydney is about efficiency.

It’s relationships versus one night stands as far as ball-position goes in this Grand Final.

The Swans are eighth for inside 50s across the year, which is pretty meagre given they’re playing in the Grand Final.

However, it doesn’t matter because number one in goals and scoring shots per inside 50. They’re like Charlie Sheen in Two and a Half Men, cycling through 10s three nights a week.

Like everything with Sydney, this is based on pressure, run, and chaos as they are the best at scoring from turnover, and the best at scoring from the forward half.

This again threatens to be a real struggle between the team’s strengths.

While Sydney is the best at scoring from the forward half and turnover, the Lions are the best at defending scores from the forward half and turnover because of their deliberate ball movement from the back half.

It goes the other way as well, as Brisbane’s control in the back half also translates to being the third best team at scoring from the back half while Sydney’s pressure has them as the second-best team at defending scores from the back half.

Brisbane is like Tony Soprano in the back half. They need to be the mother f**king f**king one who calls the shots.

For them to win the game, they need to exert control over it.

No team took more marks than Brisbane this year, and only one other side averaged more than 100 marks for the year.

In each of Sydney’s losses bar one, they have conceded more than 100 marks. They only won one game where the opponent took more than 100 marks (101).

Control, starting from the back half, is the key for Brisbane.

Sydney is more Gloria Trillo. They’re incredibly hot but need chaos to feel at home.

Personnel wise, the Swans’ key forwards are poor with particularly Logan McDonald consistently providing very little.

Between Eric Hipwood and McDonald we’re in for a mid-off.

One thing to note is that Brisbane usually does the Bill Belichick move of putting their best defender, Harris Andrews, on the opposition’s second or third most dangerous tall forward to allow Andrews to zone off. It will be interesting to see if Andrews goes to McDonald or Amartey because neither are stars.

In any case, Sydney’s lack of forward talent has not mattered because the Swans consistently have a number of players hit the scoreboard. They averaged nearly nine separate goal kickers per game, which was the best in the AFL on their way to being footy’s heaviest scoring team.

Their key full-time forward, not dissimilar to the Lions, is Tom Papley. Who is not only their best forward but is clearly their energiser bunny and best chaos agent.

Defensively, the Lions have been solid this season, as the sixth best scoring defence. However, they have been a bit inefficient defensively, sitting eighth in scoring shots given up per inside 50.

Key Players: Harris Andrews, Dayne Zorko, Tom Papley, Joel Amartey

Verdict

The forward line battles will be the two key fights.

The Lions are great at locking the ball inside 50 and getting repeat entries, winning on volume above all else, while the Swans need to rebound to score when they’re at their best.

At the other end, the Swans create havoc from turnover and are the best at scoring off turnover and scoring from the forward half. The Lions are the best control team in the AFL, taking the most marks and conceding the fewest scores from turnover and the forward half.

This game will be about flow as much as anything else. It’s chaos versus control. Trump versus Harris. If chaos wins and Sydney can run and carry, they will win the game.

If Brisbane can exert control over the ball and get their uncontested mark game going, then they will win the game.

The other variable is that Sydney played a relatively easy preliminary final while Brisbane played the footy equivalent of landing at Normandy, with one day less rest.

Based on the freshness, and the fact that it feels like chaos usually wins in finals, I’m picking Sydney and hoping I’m wrong.

 

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